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Rice Football Film Room 2019: UTSA review and Southern Miss preview

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This week’s edition of the Rice Football film room features two very different teams starting with a review of UTSA and looking ahead at Southern Miss.

Hey everybody and welcome back to the Rice Football Film Room. Today we’ll be looking at a play from Rice’s heartbreaking loss to UTSA, as well as one from upcoming opponent Southern Miss in their Week 5 win against UTEP.

UTSA

As Matthew noted in his breakdown of the loss, Rice has turned the ball over a stunning *nine* times in three conference games. It’s not a stretch to think that if they’d maintained the low turnover rate from their brutal non-conference schedule (a mere two turnovers in four games) or even stayed close to it, they might be 2-1 or even 3-0 in C-USA play now. But the UTSA game in particular featured some backbreakers, including the play I’ve included here.

Rice Football, film room

Setup

It’s the first play of the third quarter. Rice is leading 10-7 and on offense at their own 25. They’re in a 21-personnel I-formation look, with a TE to the right. Bradley Rozner is the wide receiver to the top of the screen. Somewhat surprisingly, UTSA is in a two-deep 4-2-5 nickel look, ceding numbers to Rice in the box. As a quick note, the FB is Brendan Suckley and I think that’s Aston Walter as the RB, but I can’t tell who the TE is from the clip.

The Play

Now we see what UTSA’s up to—they rotate into a single-high look at the snap, with the boundary corner blitzing and Austin Trammell being picked up in man by the free safety. Both the LBs drop into shallow zones, so with six blockers up front (the TE runs a route but Suckley stays in). Rice stymies the 4 DL. Walter does a nice job cut-blocking the blitzing CB, so Green gets time to throw off this short drop.

We’ve talked on the pod about how Rice’s offense and their use of heavy personnel allows them to get one-on-one match-ups outside and how they’ve been particularly effectively lately throwing jump balls to Rozner and August Pitre in the end zone out of these looks. Understanding how personnel and formations dictate what the defense gives you is a key quality for a quarterback: by processing these things pre-snap and knowing what looks you’re likely to get, you can make quick decisions about what to do once the ball is snapped.

But this can also be a trap: defenses routinely show QBs one thing pre-snap and then change it up post-snap. If you’ve already made up your mind about where you’re going pre-snap—and what’s more, if the defense is guessing that’s what you’ve decided to do and has a counter in mind—then what looks like a sound read can turn into a horrible mistake. Note that this happens to even the best of quarterbacks: Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 70 touchdowns and only 8ight interceptions in his 22 starts for the Crimson Tide. At least half of the interceptions have come on plays like this, when savvy defensive coordinators have used Tagovailoa’s aggressiveness and rapid decision-making.

More: Three critical mistakes Rice football must fix soon

That’s what happens to Wiley Green here. He thinks he has Rozner in single coverage and plans to go there right from the beginning, staring down Rozner the whole way. Based on the alignment, Green probably thinks the nickel DB is going to stay closer to the box to play in run support, but instead he bails and sinks to double Rozner. Green doesn’t see him, and the ball is picked and returned for a touchdown.

Even if the DB hadn’t been there, it’s not a great play by Green. He probably needs to get that ball out at the top of his drop, because:

1) it’s a long throw, and while Rozner’s break gets him space, the corner probably would have had time to close and make the play as is; and
2) by the time he makes his throw the pocket has been pushed back enough that he can’t step into the throw, and so the ball is underthrown.

If he gets it out at the top of the drop and doesn’t take that extra step forward, he’s got more space to step into the throw and drive the ball. That would mean getting the ball out well before Rozner is out of his break, but a throw off a 5-step drop like this one is usually a timing-based throw. You’ve got to get the ball out when you’re supposed to and trust that the receiver will be in the right spot to make the catch. I don’t mean to dog Green too much here; I know that all sounds harsh, but these are mistakes Rice cannot afford to make in winnable games.

Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles are led this year by their high-flying passing offense, directed by coordinator Buster Faulkner, who came in this offseason and installed his version of the Air Raid. (Faulkner played and coached at Valdosta State under Chris Hatcher, who was an assistant at Kentucky under Air Raid architects Hal Mumme and Mike Leach). The engine of this offense is QB Jack Abraham, who’s been a bit turnover-prone (8 INTs), but has also thrown for over 2200 yards and 13 TDs on a 70.5 percent completion percentage.

Their offense will primarily run out of four receiver sets, with plays designed to get those receivers in space. One of those plays, mesh, is one of the staple concepts of the Air Raid (which, in its purest forms, actually only includes four or five passing concepts). We’ll take a look at a version of mesh that Southern Miss runs below.

Rice Football, film room

Setup

It’s late in the second quarter in Southern Miss’ win over UTEP. and the Gold Eagles are up 14-3, with the ball at the UTEP 38 yard line. Southern Miss in a four receiver set, with three receivers in a bunch to the left. UTEP counters with a two-high look out of dime (6 DBs) personnel, with three down linemen and two linebackers.

The Play

As I said above, Southern Miss runs “mesh”, which is a core concept of the Air Raid but also shows up in playbooks across all levels of football these days. It involves a pair of shallow crossing routes from opposite ends of the field nearly meeting in the middle of the field. There are many variations, both in terms of formation and the other routes being run, but the crossers are the key. It’s a great play because it can put stress on both man and zone coverages, and having versatile plays which work against different defensive looks is a core Air Raid philosophy.

More: Southern Miss week press conference quotes

The version here is pretty classic, though the bunch allows for a variation. Normally an inside receiver to the strong side runs the crosser from that side, but here’s it’s the outside (or No. 1) receiver, running under the No. 2 (who’s on the line) and the No. 3 inside. The No. 2 runs a corner route, the No. 3 runs to the flat, and to the weak side the back leaks into the flat and the receiver runs the other crosser.

It looks like UTEP’s in 2-Man coverage, with two deep safeties and everybody else playing man. The press corner is on the strongside No. 2, the boundary corner is on the weakside No. 1, and the weakside LB has the back. I can’t be sure but I think the other two underneath DBs to the trips side are playing banjo coverage on the two other receivers to that side.

Basically, that means the outside DB will pick up whichever receiver (in this case, the No. 3 receiver) goes outside, and the inside DB will pick up whoever goes inside (in this case, the No. 1, who’s running the crosser). Receivers often run “rubs” or “picks” (or “illegal offensive pass interference” if you’re a defensive guy) on DBs out of these bunches to get free releases for the other receivers, and banjo is a common strategy for preventing that.

More: Previewing Rice Football vs Southern Miss

In this case, it seems to be the inside DB that makes the error, chasing the No. 3 receiver to the flat instead of picking up the no. 1 receiver (Jaylond Adams) running the crosser. That crosser is actually usually the fourth read in most versions of mesh (the corner, the other crosser, and the flat route to that side are the first three), but I don’t think Abraham gets that far. Based on how quickly he turns his head and gets to the open man, I think he quickly sees that inside DB start to flow to the flat and knows that means that Adams will be wide open, which he is. The safety to that side does a great job slowing down and then tackling Adams to prevent a TD, but Adams still turns it into about a 15-yard gain.

So the Rice secondary, likely down top CB Andrew Bird, has its work cut out for them this week against this Southern Miss offense. They’re going to have to play smart and disciplined to keep these receivers from picking up chunk after chunk against them. Let’s hope the Owls are up to the challenge.

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Rice Football 2019 Game Preview: Week 9 vs Southern Miss

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Rice Football returns home in Week 9 to take on Southern Miss. How to watch, stats to know, x-factor picks for both teams and more.

Neither Rice football nor Southern Miss enters Week 9 on a high note. The Owls fell on the road as favorites to an up and down UTSA squad. Southern Miss dropped a shootout to C-USA West-leading Louisiana Tech.

Both teams are hungry for a win on Saturday, with the stakes high in regards to expectations for both programs. Here’s what you need to know about both Rice and their opponent and before this Week 9 battle.

Broadcast Info

Kickoff time | 12:00 PM CT
Venu | Rice Stadium – Houston, Tx
TV | ESPN+ Streaming ($)
Radio | Sports Map 94.1 (FM) / Stretch Internet (Online)

Audio Preview

We’ll preview the Southern Miss game on Episode 13 of The Roost Podcast which will be released on Wednesday. Find us on the podcast page or wherever you like to listen to podcasts. (And consider leaving us a 5-star review while you’re at it.)

Sizing up the contenders

Close games have gone against Rice football this season. The Owls’ seven consecutive defeats have been their own doing in many respects, but they’ve played well enough in spurts to have more than one win under their belts to this point. The Owls are still hungry and should come out swinging.

Southern Miss should have some angst about this game for different reasons. The Eagles lost control of their own destiny in the C-USA West when they fell to Louisiana Tech in Week 8. That doesn’t preclude them from making the conference championship game, but it does lessen the margin of error Southern Miss has if they want to make a run. This game matters a lot to that end.

Mike Bloomgren’s first-ever C-USA game came in Hattiesburg against Southern Miss. The program has come along way since that one-sided affair. The Owls would like to prove it.

Series History

All Time | Southern Miss leads 5-4
Last Five | Southern Miss leads 4-1
Last Meeting | Away 2018, Southern Miss won 40-22

Rice Stat Notables

Passing | Green – 61/116 (54.3 percent), 683 yards passing, 3 TD, 1 INT
Rushing | Walter – 110 carries, 504 yards (4.6 yards per carry), 5 TD
Receiving | Rozner – 32 receptions, 479 yards (15.0 yards per reception), 2 TD | Trammell – 37 receptions, 472 yards (12.8 yards per reception), 1 TD
Tackles | Alldredge – 59, Montero – 44, Chamberlain – 39
Pass Breakups/Interceptions | Thornton – 5 PBU, Nyakwol/Chamberlain/Smith – 1 INT each

Southern Miss Stat Notables

Passing | Abraham – 155/220 (70.5), 2263 yards passing, 13 TD, 8 INT
Rushing | Harris – 58 carries, 282 yards (4.9 yards per carry), 3 TD
Receiving | Watkins – 26 receptions, 630 yards (24.2 yards per reception), 3 TD | Adams – 40 receptions, 445 yards (11.1 yards per reception), 2 TD
Tackles | Hembry – 51, Thomas – 50, Showers – 38
Pass Breakups/Interceptions | Williams/Mitchell – 4 PBU each, Thomas/Mitchell – 2 INT each

Southern Miss X-Factor | Winning third downs on defense

Although they had their struggles through the air against Louisiana Tech, the Southern Miss defense is still regarded as one of the better units in C-USA. When they do have their less-than-perfect outings, they can usually rely on the offense to pick them up, a nice luxury to have.

And that’s where the crux of the entire Southern Miss gameplan rests. If the Eagles can get their defense off the field, they’re going to give that explosive offense opportunities.

The Rice defense has been improved through the air this season, but it isn’t quite at the level it needs to be to stop high powered arms like Abraham consistently. More possessions for Southern Miss likely mean more points. That could go by the wayside if Rice football can milk the clock and play keep away from Abraham and Co.

Rice X-Factor | Winning the turnover battle

Rice football handed away 14 points against UTSA with a pick-six and a goal line fumble. They lost by four points. The Owls’ average margin of defeat when winning the turnover battle this season is 7.5 points. Somewhat surprisingly, their margin of defeat when losing the turnover battle is -7.3.

Army and Baylor turned the ball over more times than Rice. The Owls almost won as significant underdogs thanks to the additional opportunities. Rice came just as close — even closer, actually — but gave the ball away more often than they took it against Louisiana Tech, UAB and UTSA.

It’s not unfathomable to posit Rice having another win or two had they managed to play some of their conference opponents level in the turnover department. Southern Miss turns the ball over at the third-highest rate in C-USA. Rice must capitalize.

Injury Report

Rice left the UTSA game more banged up than they’ve been at any point this season. Austin Walter, Naeem Smith and Andrew Bird all left the game for some duration of time with injuries. Their status for this weekend’s game against Southern Miss, as well as updates for other key players is available in the latest injury update.

Need More?

The Roost’s 2019 Rice Football Season Preview has four pages dedicated to every opponent the Owls face. There are depth chart, important new arrivals and depth chart breakdowns for each foe. Better yet, it’s not just speculation, each profile was created with insight from local experts who cover those teams day in and day out. Pick up your copy today and get four pages and more than 1,000 words on every foe.

Pick ‘Em Contest

If you haven’t yet, make sure you submit your entry for The Roost’s weekly pick’em challenge. Choose an answer to each of the six questions below and submit them on the forum thread to enter.

  1. Will Rice score on their opening drive of the game?
    Yes / No
  2. How many points will Rice allow?
    Over 29.5 / Under 29.5
  3. Will Rice win the turnover battle?
    Yes (or tie) / No
  4. How many sacks will the Rice defense register?
    Over 2.5 / Under 2.5
  5. In which quarter will Rice score the most points? (ties count as correct picks)
    Q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4
  6. Who wins?
    Rice / Southern Miss

One Final Thing

As uncomfortable as the loss which Rice suffered last weekend to UTSA felt, Saturday is a new day. And the reality is this: no team in Conference USA is unbeatable. The top and the bottom of this conference are remarkably more close together than many would care to admit.

Rice football has proven themselves more likely to play up to their better competition than in years past. The need for a victory hasn’t dissipated inside the walls at South Main, but the pressure to get over the hump hasn’t proved overwhelming either. This is a winnable game. They all are. But Rice is going to have to play a lot better than they did against UTSA if they want to have a shot.

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Rice Football: Familiar problems doom Owls to familiar results

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Rice football is hurting after a seventh consecutive loss put hopes of a second-year resurgence for Mike Bloomgren’s squad on life support.

No confetti fell from the rafters following a victory formation kneel down by UTSA quarterback Lowell Narcisse. Instead, muted applause rose from a sparse crowd, one of the worst in program history. Hours after fans had posted videos of themselves burning tickets, UTSA won. A team in a rough spot had dealt a crushing blow to a team that finds itself in increasingly dire straights.

That’s what made Saturday’s loss feel like such a gut punch. Rice needed to win. Instead, their deficiencies proved too much to overcome and players and staff were left stunned.

“No idea. I don’t know.”

“We just invent ways to lose.”

“We did things to shoot ourselves in the foot.”

Rice football players and staff were despondent in a locker room head coach Mike Bloomgren called “a morbid place right now” following an inexcusable loss to UTSA. Morbid sums up the outlook on a 2019 season which looked anything but a few short weeks ago.

The Owls exhibited failures against the Roadrunners that cannot be ignored. From snapping the football to managing timeouts, this team did too many things wrong — and still had a fourth quarter lead and one final drive to secure their first win. They came up short.

It’s hard to boil down the loss to a single item. As Bloomgren himself said after the game, “we all own this.” Still, three things stood out. Three things that have plagued the Owls all season and the duration of Bloomgren’s tenure at South Main. If Rice football wants to turn things around, these issues need to be addressed.

1. Quarterback play

Last year the Owls oscillated between grad transfer Shawn Stankavage, Evan Marshman, Jackson Tyner (very briefly) and eventual 2019 starter Wiley Green. That collective threw 16 interceptions and 13 touchdown passes.

Another grad transfer, Harvard’s Tom Stewart, was added to the fold this year. Stewart has proven himself to be a hard-nosed runner, but his decision making in high leverage situations has been woeful. An endzone interception against Louisiana Tech and back-to-back sacks to end any hopes of a Rice comeback on the Owls’ final drive against UTSA

Stewart was only in the game because starter Wiley Green had been benched. The redshirt freshmen did not see the field again after committing his third turnover of the day, a backbreaking pick-six on the first play of the second half.

True freshmen Jovoni Johnson saw his first action of the season against UTSA. He was one of three quarterbacks that took a snap on the Owls’ opening drive. Even if done with the best intentions, a tri-headed quarterback attack is far from the level of consistency desired from the most important position on the offense.

2. Inexplicable Turnovers

Sometimes defenses make plays. The Owls have had their moments on that side of the ball, too. But each of the turnovers Rice committed against UTSA were self-inflicted wounds.

Green had been consistent with the football through the air, but he had multiple hair raising moments in the first half including a pass thrown into the waiting hands of a UTSA defender which was dropped. The pick-six, his first turnover through the air this year, might have been forgivable had it not been for two of the most costly turnovers of the 2019 season to that point — both fumbled snaps by Green.

A game removed from a fumbled snap in the rain against UAB, Green’s snap struggles continued. Safety Naeem Smith had just made a heads up playing, snaring a tipped UTSA pass for an interception at the goal line. Rice took over in need of three feet for a touchdown. Green fumbled the snap, returning the ball to the Roadrunners. After a three and out, Green turned it over on a fumble snap again on the subsequent drive.

Rice was +1 in turnover margin in nonconference play, giving the ball away twice in four games. They’ve turned the ball over nine times in three conference games and have fallen to a -5 margin on the season.

 3. Passive pass rush

UTSA quarterback Lowell Narcisse took over after starter Frank Harris was lost for the season in their fourth game. In three games of meaningful action, Narcisse completed less than 45 percent of his passes, threw for an average of 88 yards and had more interceptions (two) than touchdown passes (one).

Against Rice, Narcisse completed 65.5 percent of his passes, throwing for 212 yards and two touchdowns with one interception (which was more so the fault of his receiver than himself). Narcisse’s success came thanks in large part to a clean pocket and plenty of time to throw the football.

Rice registered a Conference USA worst 1.3 sacks per game last season, tallying 17 in 13 games. Through seven games in 2019, the Owls have maintained that dismal pace with eight sacks in seven games, a rate of 1.1 sacks per game.

The secondary hasn’t been lights out, but they’ve kept opposing pass catchers in front of them. No longer are the Owls’ opponents scoring 60+ yard touchdowns in bunches, but they are finding space in the defense, understandable when they can take all the time they need to scan the field.

Now what?

Improvement was promised following a 2-11 “Year Zero” in 2018. If Rice football is to fulfill those expectations, they need to win three of their remaining five games. After what feels like an incalculable number of close calls, that task seems more daunting now than ever before.

The good news, if there is any, is many of the Owls’ shortcomings have been their own doing. If Rice can clean up their mistakes, they’ll have a chance to win down the stretch. No Conference USA opponent is an insurmountable juggernaut.

Bloomgren sounded heartbroken during a gloomy postgame press conference, but the characteristic fire that is ever apparent in his eyes was still there. “Don’t worry about me,” he said. “My battery will wake up tomorrow and we’ll go.”

More: Takeaways from Owls’ road loss to UTSA

Where the Owls go from here could be the most pivotal moment of Bloomgren’s young head coaching career. As he sees it, “We’ve made progress; we want to make the progress that matters. We want to get one in the left column. And we’re going to keep working towards that.”

“I want to work now. I want to get better, as much improved as we can between now and next Saturday when we play Southern Miss.”

It’s going to be an uphill battle. Bloomgren won’t quit. And if he can keep his team with him in this low, low point, Rice football should have nowhere to go but up from here.

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Rice Football: Fourth quarter lead disappears as Owls lose to UTSA

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Rice football played a back-and-forth game with UTSA that came down to the wire. For the seventh time this season, the Owls couldn’t find a way to win.

The Owls knew winning on the road wasn’t going to be easy. UTSA fought from start to finish, taking the lead with a little more than four minutes to play. With Tom Stewart at the controls, the Owls drove the length of the field and came up just short. Here are a few immediate takeaways from another heartbreaking result for Rice football.

1. Making the off week count

Bloomgren said one of the main focuses of the off week was converting third and medium, specifically third and four-to-six yards. Last year the Owls were stuck in too many third and long situations. This year the team had improved their down and distance metrics, but their conversion rate was still lacking.

Rice had their first opportunity to prove their mettle in that scenario on the first drive of the game. Quarterback Wiley Green hit trustworthy slot receiver Austin Trammell on a quick slant and moved the chains. That drive finished in three points. After failing to score on the opening drive in their first four games, Rice has now scored on their first possession in three consecutive games.

Rice converted a season-best 64% (9-of-14) third downs against UTSA, going 3-for-4 on third downs of four-to-six yards. Outside of self-inflicted wounds, Rice controlled the clock and moved the ball on offense as well as they have all season.

2. Big play Brad

You won’t find many junior college players suiting up for Rice football. The academic rigors separating South Main from those institutions represent a sizable gulf which few will successfully traverse. Making it to campus doesn’t guarantee success either. Checkered is the track record of JUCO transfers across the nation. Some pan out, some don’t.

It’s safe to say Brad Rozner has been well worth the investment.

The nation’s leading touchdown man at the JUCO level in 2018 has been a yardage machine for Rice football this season. Concerns over his slender build and questions of his ability to play physical have been put aside. All he does is make plays.

Rozner drew six pass interference flags against UAB. Rather than play the ball, the Blazers elected to tackle the playmaker before he had the chance to make a play. UTSA was less fortunate. Green targeted Rozner downfield throughout Saturday’s game. The first big gain was wiped out by a penalty flag, but the next went for 55-yards, the longest completion for the Owls this season. Green would find Pitre in the endzone later on that drive, putting Rice up 10-7 at the halftime whistle.

Who else, but Rozner again to open up the second half scoring for the Owls? He muscled the ball away from a defender in the endzone for a 19-yard grab which put him past the century mark for the game. He finished with nine catches for 138 yards, leading the team in both statistics.

3. Plenty of things to clean up

Neither UTSA or Rice had scored more than three touchdowns in any game this season. There was a high likelihood that a score in the high 20’s or low 3o’s would be enough to win this game. Rice had their opportunity to carve off a big chunk of that total on their first drive, but had to settle for a field goal after August Pitre was unable to haul in an endzone target from Green. The ball bounced off his fingertips and Rice settled for three instead of seven.

The next offensive drive didn’t go quite as smoothly. Rice burned a timeout at the start of the second quarter before the Owls had run any offensive plays. Two plays later Jovoni Johnson, who had been inserted at quarterback, failed to get the snap off in time and Rice was flagged for delay of game.

But the most painful error came following that challenging drive. After punting the ball back to UTSA, fortune smiled on the Owls for a brief moment. Naeem Smith snagged a deflected Lowell Narcisse pass and gave the Rice offense the ball at the UTSA goal line. A bad exchange between center Brian Chaffin and Green turned the ball right back over to UTSA two plays later. That was the first of two fumbled snap turnovers for Rice in the second quarter.

Green committed his third turnover on the first play of the second half, throwing right into the arms of a UTSA defender who returned it for a UTSA touchdown.

4. Boom goes the offense and the special teams

Explosive plays weren’t something the Rice offense had proven particularly adept at generated this season. In their first six games, Rice tallied 14 plays of 20 or more yards, an average of 2.3 per game. Rice had five 20-yard plays against UTSA — and that’s excluding a 40-yard bomb to Rozner called back by penalty, Rozner’s 19-yard touchdown reception and another 19 yard catch by Rozner in the third quarter.

When Rice was able to sustain drives, the big plays were a regular occurrence. So much so that two of the offenses near the bottom of the conference ended up having a shootout in San Antonio.

Chris Barnes was a weapon in the punting game, downing two punts inside the five-yard line including a 66-yard missile.

The biggest play of all is credited to reserve linebacker Garrett Grammer. Behind Blaze Alldredge and Antonio Montero on a crowded depth chart, Grammer sees most of his playing time on special teams. Late in the third quarter with UTSA backed up on their own 25-yard line, the Roadrunners attempted a fake punt. The ball carrier never gained a yard thanks to Grammer, who snuffed out the fake and brought him down for a nine-yard loss. The offense scored two plays later.

5. Regression stings

Patience can only be preached for so long without results. Saturday night’s road contest against UTSA — a game in which Rice football was favored by 5.5 points at kickoff — marks the lowest point of the 2019 season. One could argue this 0-7 start is the most disappointing moment of the Mike Bloomgren era. This team has looked better than their 0-7 record but at some point, you are what your record says you are. And the Owls’ record says this program isn’t where it expected to be.

No man will take this disappointing result harder than Bloomgren. It was he who declared a loss in this game a sign that things the Owls were not making the progress he expected. He will be the one that has to look in the mirror and decipher why this team hasn’t found a way to finish.

Bloomgren has never made excuses; he’s never pointed fingers. He won’t start now. But he will show up to work on Monday ready to play Southern Miss. The inefficiencies and problems put on display against UTSA will lead to discussions and adjustments in the weeks to come. This coaching staff and this team won’t quit.

One game isn’t reason to dismiss weeks of positive signs, but it’s undeniable this team hasn’t lived up to expectations in 2019. And they’re running out of games to prove they can. Every game from this point onward just became that much more important.

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Rice Football: Owls know it’s “now or nothing”

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Rice football has yet to win this season. Favorites for the first time, the Owls know Saturday’s game at UTSA is as close to a must-win game as it could get.

Two weeks removed from what was “supposed to be [the Owls’] breakout game” against Louisiana Tech, the level of focus around South Main has only intensified.

Rice lost that game to the Bulldogs despite never trailing in regulation. Another loss the following week to UAB dropped the team’s record to 0-6. On the brink of an early elimination from bowl eligibility, no one in the program has any illusions about the importance of their upcoming game with UTSA.

Team captain Austin Trammell, who declared the LA Tech loss the missed breakout opportunity, didn’t mince his words: “It’s now or nothing,” he said. “There’s no more waiting around. We gotta win this game.”

“It’s now or nothing. There’s no more waiting around. We gotta win this game.” — Austin Trammell

Starting quarterback Wiley Green says the mindset of the team is exactly that. “We’re tired of the moral victories. We’re past that,” he said, “We gotta win. We gotta find a way to win.”

For Rice football, an off week prior to what has become a crucial “gotta win” game was incredibly important. The team has done a lot of things well, but this week was about fixing the stumbling blocks on both sides of the ball which have prevented them from taking three games that were within one score in fourth quarter and turning them into wins.

On offense, the team has looked at formations, playcalling and third downs. They diagnosed what they need to do to limit turnovers and generate explosive plays. On defense, they’ve focused on eliminating vertical plays, staying fundamentally sound in the running game and getting off the field on third down.

They’re doing the right things. Rice football is a better team right now than they were last year, and last week, for that matter. But like coach Mike Bloomgren consistently refrains, wins are the currency that determines that success.

“We are getting better,” Bloomgren said of his team this week. “It is time, in my mind, for it to show.”

When pressed on what better looked like this week, Bloomgren was crystal clear. “To say we’re making progress in this game is probably to win it, quite frankly.” he declared. “I want our process from Monday to the game to be as good as we can make it for the kids and preparing them. And then I want them to go out and play. That’s it. I want to play really well and I want them to have a heck of a party in the locker room. Because they’ve earned it.”

For this first time this season, oddsmakers favor the winless Rice football to beat its opponent. Rice hasn’t been favored on the road since they were 4.5-point favorites over UTEP on Nov. 6, 2015. They haven’t won a true road game since they beat that same UTEP team in El Paso on Sep 9, 2017.

When the betting markets opened, Rice was a three-point favorite. The line has ballooned to as high as 5.5 points in some books in the hour prior to kickoff. UTSA is without their starting quarterback. The Roadrunners haven’t beaten an FBS team other than UTEP since they beat Rice in Houston last season. And that game wasn’t particularly close.

“This is the week. It’s gotta be” said Rice linebacker coach Scott Vestal who oversees what has arguably become the best unit on the team this season. If Rice is going to win, it’s going to need big days from star linebackers Blaze Alldredge, Antonio Montero and hybrid linebacker/safety Treshawn Chamberlain. They’ll need points, quite possibly more than 15.7 points they’ve averaged per game this season.

Rice needs a complete game. Each phase — offense, defense and special teams — need to come together and play at a level they’ve proven themselves capable of playing. And they need to do it for four quarters.

And even if none of those things happen to the degree they’d like, they need to find a way. They must. They gotta win.

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