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Owls not out for good on 2019 safety Ron Nunnery

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Rice football continues to make inroads with the state’s top prospects on the recruiting trail. Could they force a flip from 3-star safety Ronald Nunnery?

Mike Bloomgren has made raising the talent profile of Rice football a priority and the results are already beginning to show. The Owls have four 3-star recruits committed so far in their 2019 recruiting class and have their eyes set on several other playmakers both inside and outside the state of Texas.

Pearland safety Ronald Nunnery is high on the Owls’ list, and they’re not alone. The talented defensive back has made a verbal commitment to cross-town rival Houston. In addition to the offers from Houston and Rice, the 3-star safety holds offers from Colorado, Iowa State, Boise State and Colorado State.

Traditionally, Rice has been edged out of recruiting races when the Power 5 schools start getting into the mix. That doesn’t appear to be the case for Nunnery, who was impressed by what Rice is building in his recent visit to campus which came prior to his commitment to Houston.

Nunnery called the defensive scheme a “great fit” and noted that one of the positive aspects of new coaching was a wide-open depth chart with the opportunity to get early playing time. He was complimentary of the coaching staff that Bloomgren pulled together from all over the nation and said he plans to make a few trips out this fall to see some games.

Nunnery is a top 200 player in the state of Texas according to 247 Sports. He holds 19 offers and counting, but when asked where the Owls ranked in the mix he gave a short, straight-forward response: “[Rice is] in my top 5”. Even though Nunnery chose the Cougars, the Owls appeared to be close enough to stay in the mix through the fall. Flipping Nunnery away from the Cougars would be an impressive feat indeed. You can be certain that Bloomgren will give it a try.

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27 Days: Will Kicker Will Harrison lead Owls specialists again?

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Rice football got 27 points from their leading kicker Will Harrison last season. He’ll need to up his game for the Owls in 2018.

The paltry amount of field goals Rice football attempted in 2017 is borderline unbelievable. If it seemed like the Owls didn’t attempt any field goals last season it’s because they averaged less than one field goal attempted per game. Their five total field goal attempts ranked dead last in the FBS.

The limited offensive production placed Rice near the bottom in PAT tries as well. Their 25 attempts (24 successful) were more only six programs in the nation.

It wasn’t that long ago that Rice fans were treated to the wonder leg of Chris Boswell. The former Rice star is kicking in the NFL for the Pittsburg Steelers, but he got his start with the Owls. From 2010 to 2013 he scored 359 points for the Owls, connecting on 65 field goals and knocking through 164 PATs.

The Rice specialists are going to need some help from the offense if those numbers are going to tick upwards in 2018. Regardless of whether its five or 25 field goal attempts, they’ll fall on the leg of sophomore kicker Will Harrison.

Harrison led the Owls’ kickers in attempts (four) while connecting on just two of his kicks. Those six points, combined with 21 PATs placed him fourth on the team in scoring with 27 points. Junior Hayden Tobola connected on his lone field goal attempt and added a pair of PATs while punter Jack Fox did not attempt any field goals, but knocked through his only PAT of 2017 in the season opener against Stanford.

Harrison made field goals one field goal of 36-yards against UTEP and a 31-yard kick against Houston. He missed a 43-yard attempt against Houston and had a 25-yard attempt blocked against Old Dominion, a game which Rice lost by three points.

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28 Days: Where will sacks come from in 2018?

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Rice football was effective in their efforts to get to the quarterback last season but they’ll need to find new faces to continue the charge in 2018.

One of the most encouraging traits of the Rice football defense in 2017 was their ability to get to the quarterback. The 28 sacks tallied by the Owls’ defense was fifth best in Conference USA. They finished tied for 41st in the nation with a rate of 2.33 sacks per game, better than several imposing defenses like Georgia, Florida, Michigan State and South Carolina.

The Owls were led by defensive end Brian Womac who registered 10 sacks and defensive tackle Roe Wilkins, who picked up 6.5 sacks. Wilkins is back, but Womac now plays for the Los Angeles Rams. That leaves a void that must be addressed.

Regression in the sack department is certainly possible for the Owls if they can’t find someone to step up and fill Womac’s shoes. Nose tackle Zack Abercrumbia (two sacks) is the only other returning player who registered multiple sacks last season. Also missing from the 2018 squad are Emmanuel Ellerbee, Graysen Schantz, Blain Padgett each of which picked up 1.5 sacks in 2017.

The assignment falls to the aforementioned Wilkins and Abercrumbia as well as sixth-year edge rusher Graysen Schantz. Back for one final ride after an injury-plagued career, Schantz will slot in at rush end. Through 26 career games, he’s picked up 71 tackles, 15 tackles for a loss and 6.5 sacks. He’s only played one complete season (2016) and appeared in just six games last season for the Owls.

After Schantz, the depth chart gets murky, fast. Opposite Schantz will be some combination of sophomore Anthony Ekpe and 2018 signee Antonio Montero. The highest rated linebacker recruit in the Owls’ class, Montero finds himself in position to see meaningful snaps early in the season. How much playing time he gets moving forward will be up to him.

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29 Days: Owls must win time of possession battle in 2018

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Time of possession doesn’t mean much to the vast majority of collegiate teams, but for Rice Football controlling the clock is the gateway to offensive success.

The Owls’ new-look offense is predicated on winning in the trenches. As coach Mike Bloomgren says, the new Rice will impose their will on their opponent. That tenacity will be enforced by dominating in one somewhat inconspicuous statistic: time of possession.

The Owls averaged 29:37 in time of possession last season, the seventh-best mark in Conference USA and the 73rd best average in the nation. They were essentially right at the median. That portion of the range doesn’t tell much because the vast majority of teams tend to concentrate near the 30:00 possession mark. In fact, 68 percent of  D1 teams fell within plus or minus two minutes of 30:00. That hammers home a somewhat intuitive truth — for most teams, time of possession doesn’t really matter.

Rice won’t be one of those teams because Stanford wasn’t one of those teams. Bloomgren’s five years as the offensive coordinator at Stanford paint a blueprint for what is in store for Rice football. From 2012 to 2016 Stanford ranked inside the top 30 in the nation in winning the battle with the clock. The Cardinal fell off a bit to 62nd in 2017, but still had the ball more often than they didn’t, averaging 30:16 in time of possession.

Each season the high end of the range includes power running teams like Navy, Army, Air Force and Georgia Tech. The next tier is where the Owls are aiming to reach. Wisconsin, LSU, Georgia and Michigan all operate an offense that is dependent of controlling the clock. When things are working well, that control of the clock translates into control of the game.

In this respect, the Owls will dare to be different. They’ll be one of a handful of teams that intentionally focus on winning the time of possession battle and the results could be tremendous.

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30 Days: Owls must continue to find offensive success in conference play

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Rice football had a tough 2017 campaign but even a 1-win conference record leaves reasons for Owls to be hopeful for the future.

The non-conference slate for Rice football in 2018 is a mixed bag. From Prairie View A&M to LSU, the Owls will face the full spectrum of difficulty outside the bounds of Conference USA competition. Those games are good measuring sticks for the program but ultimately aren’t as valuable in the long run if Rice doesn’t take care of their eight-game conference schedule.

The Owls weren’t perfect in conference play last season, but they did pick up their lone victory against CUSA foe UTEP. There’s more to the conference story beyond the singular victory. Rice was 30 percent more productive on offense in conference games than they were in non-conference games in 2017.

Here’s how the Rice offense fared inside and outside of CUSA action:

Per Game Avg CUSA OOC Change
Total yards 360 277 30%
Points 20.4 8 155%
Third down conv. 42.6 32.1 33%
First downs 18.4 9.8 87%
Turnovers 1.9 3.5 46%

Rice was better across the board in every major offensive metric in conference play. That bump up in production only translated into one win, but its a strong launching point for new head coach Mike Bloomgren and his staff to build on. The Owls must find success in conference play before they can tackle more ambitious goals like another conference championship.

Excluding Rice, five of the 14 teams in conference USA allowed more than 400 yards per game last season. The Owls play four of them this season: FIU, Old Dominion, North Texas and UTEP. Taking advantage of some of the softer defenses in CUSA won’t just pad the stats; it will pave the way for more wins. Rice is already heading in the right direction. They just need to kick things into a slightly higher gear.

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