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Conference USA Football: Digging into the data on Havoc Rate

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Conference USA Football has fielded some impressive defensive performances in the past three seasons. Does havoc rate concur?

The best defenses create chaos and force the opposing offense off schedule. There are a myriad of stats that convey how well a defense is doing on that particular front, but havoc rate is a nice aggregate synopsis of those various pieces that go into a great defense. How have Conference USA football teams fared in that stat in recent years and does the data make sense? Let’s investigate.

SeasonTeamPlaysTFLINTPDFFHavocLast3RnkInSeasonRnkAvgLast3Games
2020UAB59760837718.76%5119
2020WKU82774662617.90%92612
2020UTSA8188511331417.48%1134.712
2020FIU36736218215.80%20485
2020Marshall635505321315.75%2156.310
2020FAU60158622815.64%24689
2020UTEP49947223615.63%25711.38
2020Rice30022613114.00%33810.35
2020MTSU66345825913.12%3699.39
2020So. Miss.69751626813.06%3710610
2020LA Tech69952925412.88%3811610
2020UNT75252724611.84%39129.310
2020Charlotte38420516411.72%401386
2019UAB8971067561820.85%21114
2019WKU835691150516.17%198613
2019UTSA790966341318.86%424.712
2019FIU898691250815.48%2610813
2019Marshall891651042814.03%32126.313
2019FAU9798822381416.55%156814
2019UTEP76539533510.72%411411.312
2019Rice7647063951571%22910.312
2019MTSU88863843813.74%34139.312
2019So. Miss.803871032416.56%145613
2019LA Tech9417917511216.90%123613
2019UNT8607443891453%29119.312
2019Charlotte82486936816.87%134813
2019ODU787769331216.52%167912
2018UAB87511194914.20.91%11114
2018WKU862651256816.36%188612
2018UTSA81578932915.71%2394.712
2018FIU887681743815.33%2710813
2018Marshall9139212591219.17%326.313
2018FAU863701138514.37%3012812
2018UTEP79760541814.30%311311.312
2018Rice84257840913.54%351410.313
2018MTSU9658916571017.82%1069.314
2018So. Miss.672721429918.45%63611
2018LA Tech88010113381018.41%74613
2018UNT915971849418.36%859.313
2018Charlotte700639311216.43%177812
2018ODU90665954614.79%2811912

Notes

  • Last3Rnk is the rank of that defense compared to all 41 defensive seasons from 2018 to 2020
  • InSeasonRnk is the rank of that defense in the conference that season
  • AvgLast3 is the rank of that team’s rank from the 2018 to 2020 season

UAB has been head and shoulders above the rest

First, it probably comes as no surprise that UAB has posted three of the top five defenses based on havoc rate in the last three seasons. The Blazers have had one of the best defenses in the conference over that time and the numbers back that up, ranking them first in the statistic in each of the past three seasons. No other team has multiple appearances in the Top 10, let alone the Top 5.

2020 was a relatively subdued defensive season

Less organization typically works in the offense’s favor. We saw that reflected in the numbers as well. The 2020 season marked the lowest conference-wide havoc rate over the last three seasons (14.89 percent, on average) compared to 15.96 percent in 2020, a drop of roughly seven percent. That said, UAB, WKU and UAB still racked up TFLs and finished highly in the statistic.

Fluky turnover luck helps

Turnovers are somewhat random, and those seem to influence the year to year rankings significantly. Conference USA defenses have averaged 9.2 interceptions and 8.3 forced fumbles over the past three years. However, only 15 of the 41 defensive seasons exceeded that 9.2 interception mark with only 17 of the 41 exceeding the 8.3 forced fumbles. In short, an outlier season on that front can push you up the ranks.

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Rice Football Recruiting: Early impressions from current 2022 commits

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The 2022 Rice Football recruiting class has five commitments as the summer winds down. We caught up with a few of them to hear about their early impressions.

The 2021 season is right around the corner and while the Owls begin their preparations on the field, they’re working hard to build the future of the program off of it. The 2022 Rice Football recruiting class has five commitments to date, putting them in the middle of the pack among their Conference USA peers.

To understand how the class was progressing and get to know some of its foundational pieces, we caught up with a few of the Owls’ initial members of the class.

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Rice Baseball: 2021 MLB Owls update – July 23

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The 2021 MLB season is underway and Rice baseball alums are busy on the mound and at the plate. Here’s the latest from the MLB Owls from this week.

Anthony Rendon – Los Angeles Angels

Rendong traveled with the team to Minnesota this week, but remains on the injured list. He hasn’t appeared in a game for the Halos since July 4.

Through July 23, Rendon is hitting .240 with 19 extra-base hits, 29 walks and 41 strikeouts. His OPS is .712 and he’s collected 34 RBI.

Brock Holt – Texas Rangers

Holt has gotten off to a slow start out of the All-Star break, much like the rest of the Rangers which has tallied just eight runs over its past five games. Holt has one hit over that period in 10 at bats, making three starts and entering twice in the late innings.

Through July 23, Holt is hitting .201 with 11 extra-base hits, 17 walks and 31 strikeouts. His OPS is .574 and he’s collected 15 RBI.

Tyler Duffey – Minnesota Twins

Duffey has made two appearances since the All-Star break. In the first, he picked up his second win of the season, walking two in one inning pitched against the White Sox on Monday. Two days later he entered in the sixth inning against the Sox, surrendering four hits in 1.2 innings with no runs allowed. He’s quietly been one of the more productive relievers on the Twins this season.

Through July 23, Duffey has a 3.38 ERA with a 1.339 WHIP. He’s averaging 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

Lucas Luetge – New York Yankees

Luetge has appeared in three games for the Yankees since the All-Star Break with varied results, facing one batter on Sunday, earning a hold on Tuesday and being saddled with a blown save on Thursday.

Through July 23, Luetge has a 3.20 ERA with a 1.222 WHIP. He’s averaging 9.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

J.T. Chargois – Seattle Mariners

Chargois has also seen three games of work since the break. Across those outings, he’s worked 2.2 innings, allowing three hits with one walk and two strikeouts. He did not allow any runs.

Through the July 23, Chargois has a 2.25 ERA with a 0.893 WHIP. He’s averaging 8.7 strikeouts per nine innings.

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CUSA Media Day Roundup: All eyes on the Rice football offense

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After a busy offseason, change was the pivotal word for Rice football head coach Mike Bloomgren when speaking about his offense in 2021.

The Rice football defense was one of the most dominant units in Conference USA last year. The Owls climbed all the way up to No. 12 in the nation in scoring defense and blanked a Top 15 team on the road. If any facet of this team deserved to be the focal point of conversation when the 2021 season rolled around, the defense had done everything they conceivably could to put themselves in the spotlight.

But beginning with the first question Rice football head coach Mike Bloomgren was asked during Conference USA Media Days and proceeding to the last, the focus was clear: offense, offense, offense.

To some extent, the defense is a known commodity at this point. They’re going to be good, really good. But minus one notable departure, former linebacker Blaze Alldredge, that unit will look the same. The offense is going to look different.

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“I’m not normally very comfortable with change,” Bloomgren admitted in his opening remarks, “but I’m excited about these changes,” he said, referring primarily to the hiring of new offensive coordinator Marques Tuiasosopo. The addition of transfer quarterback Luke McCaffrey fits in that “change” category as well.

Bloomgren didn’t get too far into x’s and o’s, beyond specifying from a play design and scheme standpoint “a lot of it’s the same”, with only so many different combinations of blocks and routes. But how that offense is executed, and who’s executing on those instructions is what’s meant to be differential.

That’s where Luke McCaffrey comes in. Although he wasn’t guaranteed anything beyond a locker and helmet when he arrived, early returns are already positive. Bloomgren was effusive when praising his character and how he carried himself. The on the field production, that matters too.

“That’s a very talented individual that’s been successful on a big stage coming to our program,” Bloomgren said knowingly before getting into how the offense can utilize the run game to take shots downfield. They’ll also have the benefit of returning all five starting offensive linemen, what Bloomgren estimates is probably a first for him in his coaching career.

Add in 10 returning offensive starters overall and you get a delicate mix of familiarity and change. How the coaching staff sorts through the chaos and puts the pieces together will mean all the difference.

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The Roost Podcast | Ep 83 – Realignment and Rice Football with Shehan Jeyarajah

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We take a brief pause in our Conference USA previews to discuss the latest realignment rumors and talk Rice Football with DCTF’s Shehan Jeyarajah.

Shortly before hitting the record button for this week’s podcast, the news broke that Texas and Oklahoma had approached the SEC about joining the conference. Fittingly enough, we’d already scheduled time with Dave Campbell’s Texas Football’s Shehan Jeyarajah. We start off with the pressing news before getting into the upcoming Rice Football season, major storylines across the state of Texas college football and more.

Be sure to stick around for some Conference USA sleepers that Shehan thinks could have big years. You can always find previous episodes on the podcast page. For now, give a listen to Episode 83.

Episode Notes

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  • Shehan Jeyarajah joins the show — Shehan dives into the latest realignment carousel before sharing his thoughts on the 2021 Rice Football season, including:
    • What to make of the Texas-to-the-SEC news
    • Who’s the third best program in the state of Texas right now?
    • Conference USA storylines and media days
    • His take on the upside of Rice football in 2021
    • Under-the-radar players to watch in Conference USA

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