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Buy Now: The Roost’s 2020 Rice Football Season Preview and C-USA Preview

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The Roost is pleased to announce the release of the 2020 Rice Football Season Preview and the Conference USA Football Season Preview. These digital magazines are the one-stop-shop for every Rice and Conference USA Fan.

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The 2020 Rice Football Season Preview

This 160-page publication details everything you could imagine about Rice Football. It includes insight on the entire Rice roster as well with commentary on all 110 players on the active roster. From there the scope widens to breakdowns of every Conference USA team and all four of the Owls’ non-conference opponents. Each profile was compiled with the help from local experts who cover that beat on a daily basis with timely transfer information and any available spring updates.

As one Rice administrator dubbed it:
it’s the bible for Rice Football fans.

Get answers to questions like “Who has the leg up in the Rice quarterback battle?” or “Which incoming players could make the biggest impact?” or “Who are the top returning players Rice will face in Conference USA?”

This year’s edition included a feature story based on an interview with Athletic Director Joe Karlgaard. In the piece, we discuss how he evaluates head coach Mike Bloomgren’s coaching tenure.

The 2020 Conference USA Football Season Preview

The complete contents of the Conference USA Preview are contained within the Rice Preview. This 72-page guide includes everything Conference USA fans need to know for the upcoming season. Every team in the conference has a four-page profile. These profiles including coaching notes, pressing questions and the major storylines each squad faces this season. It also includes roster breakdowns with profiles on the biggest incoming and outgoing players.

No preview would be complete without the numbers, and this one has those in bunches. Each team section includes Conference USA metrics, returning production notes and analysis as well as stat lines for every returning player. There’s also a more detailed review of the conference’s top returning players for each major statistic. And it’s all at your fingertips rather than a dozen google searches away.

The Conference USA Preview omits the Rice-specific content like the position and player breakdowns, rising stars and more. Most Rice fans would prefer the Rice Preview whereas fans of other C-USA schools might prefer this version.

What are people saying about the Previews?

Don’t just take our word for it. Here’s what people are saying:

  • “The Roost’s C-USA preview has been an indispensable resource for me as I make my preparations for this season.”
  • “I just spent 30 minutes going through it, but barely skimmed the surface. It’s a great way to learn the new players.
  • “I don’t know any preview that could be more detailed than that.”
  • “This is worth spending the money on. Best you will get for CUSA”
  • “I liked everything.”

Want more?

You can always find additional Rice Football and Conference USA Football content on the website. If you enjoy the Preview and want to get further involved, consider supporting us on Patreon or check out The Roost Shop. Our subscribers get exclusive content ranging from recruiting and practice updates to special analysis. For starters, they got a copy of the Preview for free!

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Rice Football Film Room 2019: North Texas Review

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Rice Football is on a winning streak and the offense is starting to click. Take a look at some of the highlights in this week’s edition of the Film Room.

Hey y’all, welcome back to the Rice Football Film Room. Great to be celebrating another win, ain’t it? Rice’s defense put on a master class in this one, holding Mason Fine and the North Texas Mean Green offense to under 250 total yards and a mere 14 points. In celebration of that effort, we’ll highlight the early pick from Rice’s starting Swiss Army Knife . . . er, Viper Treshawn Chamberlain

You Had Me At A Glance

Setup

It’s UNT’s second offensive drive following a punt and a Rice field goal. So it’s 3-0 Owls, and Fine & Co. have the ball 1st and 10 at their own 25, less than five minutes into the game. They’re in a pretty standard 11 personnel shotgun look, with the TE lined up off the line and outside the LT at H-back.

Rice responds with a 3-3-5 look, with 3 linemen, Antonio Montero and Blaze Alldredge in the box, and Kenneth Orji playing the edge at off-ball strongside linebacker. Rice has two safeties: Chamberlain is lined up in the middle of the field about seven yards off the ball, and the other (I can’t see the number but I’m pretty sure it’s George Nyakwol) is deeper and just inside the numbers to the boundary.

The Play

Hey, we know this one, don’t we? It’s the Glance RPO, a play Rice has run to much success this season, usually to Brad Rozner. The single receiver runs a skinny post (or “glance”) route, and if the safety to that side stays deep (either to bracket him or bail into a deep zone), the quarterback throws. If he comes downhill to play the run, the quarterback hands it off. Nyakwol flows to the line at the run action, so Fine thinks he has an easy read, pulls the ball, and throws the glance.

The key here is some trickery by Rice DC Brian Smith and Chamberlain. Presnap, Fine and the UNT offense don’t see Chamberlain as likely to impact this play. He’s lined up to the strong side and fairly shallow, so they may expect him to move into the box to give Rice numbers against the run. He could also be bailing into a deep zone: perhaps to the middle of the field if Rice is in Cover 3, or maybe even all the way to a deep quarter in the wide side, if Rice is playing Cover 6 (Cover 2 to the short side and quarters/Cover 4 to the wide side).

More: Previewing Rice Football vs UTEP in Week 14

But Chamberlain does neither of those things. Instead it looks like he’s playing a sort of Robber coverage, meaning that he sticks in the shallow middle of the field, reading the QB’s eyes and “robbing” any shorter crossing routes. This, I assume, was a look by Smith intended specifically to counter RPOs, which are often run out of these 11 personnel spread looks. Nyakwol moves to the box to play the run option, and Chamberlain is in place to cover the shallow crossing routes these plays involve (often slants), while also being able to fill late against a run to his side.

Fine actually does a really good job selling the run action, and you can see Chamberlain briefly biting on it before realizing that the QB still has the ball. But at that point, he knows exactly where the ball is going and makes a brilliant break on the ball to grab the pick.

I’ve mentioned on The Roost Podcast before how difficult it is for QBs to process in real time when a defense changes its look post-snap, particularly on quick-read plays like these. This time, it’s Rice that uses that to its advantage. The ensuing interception sets up a crucial early touchdown for the Owls.

Plenty of big plays

Here’s where I note that I wanted this to be an all-Chamberlain column and break down his game-sealing pass breakup, but I couldn’t find video of it anywhere. Disappointing!

I’d give you the big Rozner catch on Rice’s final drive, but it was more of the same of what we’ve seen lately: Stewart put a catchable ball in the area of a single-covered Rozner, who boxed out like a power forward and came down with the ball. Great play but nothing I haven’t shown you before, and the camera is zoomed so tight at the beginning you can’t even see the formation.

So! We’ll give Rice’s other Harvard grad transfer his props. Here’s Charlie Booker’s first Rice touchdown.

Let’s Hit the Book . . . er

Setup

It’s the very first play of the second quarter. Rice has the ball 1st and goal from the 8, up 10-0. They’re under center in 22 personnel, with Booker at RB, Brendan Suckley at FB, Jaeger Bull at inline TE to the right, Jordan Myers being the other TE to the left (I’d say at H-back but he’s so far outside the tackle he’s really more of a slotback), and Rozner as the lone receiver. UNT responds with a five-man front and a whopping ten total players in or very close to the box.

The Play

This is an ISO run, which I believe I’ve mentioned briefly before. The difference between ISO and most plays using a blocking back (“lead” plays) is that lead plays are designed for the blocker to hit the hole and block whomever he sees first (most of these are gap runs, like power or counter), whereas in ISO the blocker has a specific player he’s aiming to block right from the beginning (usually, and in this case, the middle linebacker). ISO is designed to go up the middle, through an A-gap (to either side of the center, i.e.).

This is excellently blocked to the playside, with true freshman walk-on center Isaac Klarkowski and RG Brian Chaffin double-teaming the nose while LG Nick Leverett does a brilliant job getting inside of his man and sealing him off to open the gap.

More: Isaac Klarkowski, the latest Rice Football walk-on success 

Suckley blasts the MIKE back four yards and to the opposite side of the field. The weakside ‘backer for UNT has actually done a nice job sifting through the wash and is in position to make the play, though; it kinda looks like Chaffin was going to come off the double on him, but he diagnoses the play too quickly for that to happen. But Booker does a nifty jump cut and slaps him aside as he bursts through the hole. From there it’s all green grass.

Boy it sure was nice to break down plays from two successive wins. Here’s hoping Rice Football can close the season with a third in El Paso this weekend.

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Rice Football Film Room 2019: Middle Tennessee Review

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Rice Football went 1-0 last week, topping Middle Tennessee behind a fantastic offensive performance, highlighted in this week’s film room.

Hey everybody, and welcome back to the Rice Football Film Room. Sure feels good to be coming off a win, doesn’t it? So in honor of Rice’s best offensive performance of the year (even if almost all of it was in the first half), we’ll focus on that side of the ball this week.

Rozner’s Rebounds

Setup

It’s late in the first quarter, with Rice holding a 3-0 lead. The Owls have the ball at the MTSU 30. They’re in the I-formation with 21 personnel (presumably—the camera angle is too tight to see the receiver to the top but I’m guessing it’s Trammell) with Brendan Suckley as the fullback. Aston Walter is the running back and Jaeger Bull is the inline tight end to the left.

MTSU is in a base 4-3 look with two deep safeties. The boundary corner (remember, the short side is the “boundary”, the wide side is the “field”) is showing press coverage on Bradley Rozner, who is the wide receiver to that side.

The Play

MTSU brings five rushers, with the weakside linebacker blitzing. Both backs stay in for Rice. So even with Bull running a stick route the Owls have numbers in pass protection and manage keep Tom Stewart clean.

Rozner stutter steps at the line, preventing the corner from jamming him and getting a clean outside release. From there, he runs a simple go route (or “fly route” or “streak” or whatever you prefer—football coaches have an annoyingly large number of terms for “run straight down the field toward the end zone”). With the free safety stepping up (I assume he has responsibility for one of the backs if they leak out on a delayed screen to his side), there’s no help over the top. Stewart just lofts the ball into the end zone.

More: Takeaways from Rice Football vs MTSU

From there it’s all on Bradley, who as always, does an excellent job of boxing out like a power forward and coming down with the ball. An MTSU fan watching this play might be screaming for a push-off, and Rozner does extend his arms a little bit to gain separation. But there’s enough contact both ways that I think it’s a good no-call.

We’ve talked a lot lately (here and on the podcast and in numerous other pieces on the site) about the ways Rice is modifying the offense to get more points. But they’re not going to abandon Bloomgren’s base principles entirely, and this play archetype (draw defenders into the box with heavy personnel, throw over the top to big/athletic receivers in single coverage) was working perfectly for the Owls on Saturday. The other two of Rozner’s TDs, while using different formations and personnel groups (the second, for instance, was out of a two-back shotgun spread set with three receivers), were just variations on the same principle.

Walter to the House

Setup

It’s late in the first half and Rice is now clinging to a three-point lead after MTSU clawed its way back from a 17-0 deficit. Rice has the ball 2nd-and-4 from about the MTSU 34. They’re in 22 personnel: Suckley and Walter are the backs again, and Bull and Jordan Myers are the TEs, both lined up inline to the right (Rozner is the single receiver, his feet visible way up at the top). MTSU responds with an appropriately loaded box, with nine guys within seven yards of the line of scrimmage and in or just outside the tackle box.

The Play

This looks like the power toss play that we’ve highlighted (both here and on the podcast) before, but it would more appropriately be called a toss sweep, I think. “Power” runs involve a backside guard pulling. The puller on this play is actually Brian Chaffin, who at RG is the frontside guard.

Some sweep plays involve pulling both guards, but LG Nick Leverett is instead sliding inside to take the 1-tech DT, who knifes into the space vacated by C Shea Baker (who climbs the second level right away). It’s a good job by Leverett, too; if he doesn’t get that block the 1-tech probably catches Walter in the backfield, but he manages to redirect the bull rush and shove him out of the play.

More: For the first time this season, Rice football found a way to finish

Anyway, the run is well-blocked to the playside, but with the strong safety charging hard Rice doesn’t have a numbers advantage, even with Suckley as a lead blocker and Chaffin on the kick-out block executing perfectly. Bull and Myers do a great job sealing the edge as well, which gives Walter two gaps he can work with. When the safety choose to plug the outermost gap (and gets caught in the wash of Suckley’s block), Walter showcases his excellent vision and cuts back inside, slipping between Suckley and Myers.

Now the free safety is in position to make the tackle, but Walter again shows off his vision and savvy. He’s got more green grass to the near side of the field, but he can see the FS has an angle on him to make the play that way. So he cuts back the other way through a tighter window, using the safety’s momentum against him and slipping free into the open field for the score. It’s not even a particularly violent cut—Aston doesn’t have the short-area explosiveness that, say, Juma Otoviano does—but he makes it at just the right time to catch the safety completely off-guard. It’s a really excellent piece of running.

Sealing the Win

Setup

Two minutes to go. Two MTSU timeouts. 3rd-and-11. A three-point lead and the offense has done almost nothing the whole second half. It’s big boy time, y’all.

Rice is in 12 personnel, a two-back shotgun look. Walter and Charlie Booker are to either side of Stewart. Rozner is wide to the boundary. Jaeger Bull is in the slot. Austin Trammell is split so wide to the field that you can only barely see him enter the play at the end of the gif. MTSU’s in a three-man front with two stand-up edge defenders, a single off-ball LB, and five DBs (two deep safeties).

The Play

Now here’s one we haven’t broken down before: it’s outside zone! And an uncommon variation, too: you don’t see a lot of two-back shotgun outside zone. Again, I’m not the person to break down the minutiae of blocking schemes, but essentially, in outside zone, the whole line flows one way toward the sideline and the running back follows, looking for a crease to cut through. Like I said, there’s usually not a second back, but here he acts as a lead blocker to help keep the playside edge defender from sealing the edge.

Here, the playside edge guy manages to get upfield pretty far before Clay Servin and Booker can seal him off, so right away Walter knows he’s going to have to cut the run inside. As it happens, the hole opens up (and it’s not a big one!) between Chaffin and RT Justin Gooseberry. Walter shows outstanding vision to see the crease developing—based on the angle of his head there it must have been at the very edges of his peripheral vision—and he stops on a dime and explodes upfield.

He’s into the secondary in a flash. Two MTSU DBs maybe have a chance of stopping him just short of the marker, but one is erased by a beautiful downfield block by Bull and the other simply doesn’t have the angle to counter Walter’s speed.

First down. MTSU does get the ball back, but even a backyard lateral play can’t save them, and Rice football gets its first win of the season!

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Rice Football Film Room 2019: UTSA review and Southern Miss preview

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This week’s edition of the Rice Football film room features two very different teams starting with a review of UTSA and looking ahead at Southern Miss.

Hey everybody and welcome back to the Rice Football Film Room. Today we’ll be looking at a play from Rice’s heartbreaking loss to UTSA, as well as one from upcoming opponent Southern Miss in their Week 5 win against UTEP.

UTSA

As Matthew noted in his breakdown of the loss, Rice has turned the ball over a stunning *nine* times in three conference games. It’s not a stretch to think that if they’d maintained the low turnover rate from their brutal non-conference schedule (a mere two turnovers in four games) or even stayed close to it, they might be 2-1 or even 3-0 in C-USA play now. But the UTSA game in particular featured some backbreakers, including the play I’ve included here.

Rice Football, film room

Setup

It’s the first play of the third quarter. Rice is leading 10-7 and on offense at their own 25. They’re in a 21-personnel I-formation look, with a TE to the right. Bradley Rozner is the wide receiver to the top of the screen. Somewhat surprisingly, UTSA is in a two-deep 4-2-5 nickel look, ceding numbers to Rice in the box. As a quick note, the FB is Brendan Suckley and I think that’s Aston Walter as the RB, but I can’t tell who the TE is from the clip.

The Play

Now we see what UTSA’s up to—they rotate into a single-high look at the snap, with the boundary corner blitzing and Austin Trammell being picked up in man by the free safety. Both the LBs drop into shallow zones, so with six blockers up front (the TE runs a route but Suckley stays in). Rice stymies the 4 DL. Walter does a nice job cut-blocking the blitzing CB, so Green gets time to throw off this short drop.

We’ve talked on the pod about how Rice’s offense and their use of heavy personnel allows them to get one-on-one match-ups outside and how they’ve been particularly effectively lately throwing jump balls to Rozner and August Pitre in the end zone out of these looks. Understanding how personnel and formations dictate what the defense gives you is a key quality for a quarterback: by processing these things pre-snap and knowing what looks you’re likely to get, you can make quick decisions about what to do once the ball is snapped.

But this can also be a trap: defenses routinely show QBs one thing pre-snap and then change it up post-snap. If you’ve already made up your mind about where you’re going pre-snap—and what’s more, if the defense is guessing that’s what you’ve decided to do and has a counter in mind—then what looks like a sound read can turn into a horrible mistake. Note that this happens to even the best of quarterbacks: Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa has thrown 70 touchdowns and only 8ight interceptions in his 22 starts for the Crimson Tide. At least half of the interceptions have come on plays like this, when savvy defensive coordinators have used Tagovailoa’s aggressiveness and rapid decision-making.

More: Three critical mistakes Rice football must fix soon

That’s what happens to Wiley Green here. He thinks he has Rozner in single coverage and plans to go there right from the beginning, staring down Rozner the whole way. Based on the alignment, Green probably thinks the nickel DB is going to stay closer to the box to play in run support, but instead he bails and sinks to double Rozner. Green doesn’t see him, and the ball is picked and returned for a touchdown.

Even if the DB hadn’t been there, it’s not a great play by Green. He probably needs to get that ball out at the top of his drop, because:

1) it’s a long throw, and while Rozner’s break gets him space, the corner probably would have had time to close and make the play as is; and
2) by the time he makes his throw the pocket has been pushed back enough that he can’t step into the throw, and so the ball is underthrown.

If he gets it out at the top of the drop and doesn’t take that extra step forward, he’s got more space to step into the throw and drive the ball. That would mean getting the ball out well before Rozner is out of his break, but a throw off a 5-step drop like this one is usually a timing-based throw. You’ve got to get the ball out when you’re supposed to and trust that the receiver will be in the right spot to make the catch. I don’t mean to dog Green too much here; I know that all sounds harsh, but these are mistakes Rice cannot afford to make in winnable games.

Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles are led this year by their high-flying passing offense, directed by coordinator Buster Faulkner, who came in this offseason and installed his version of the Air Raid. (Faulkner played and coached at Valdosta State under Chris Hatcher, who was an assistant at Kentucky under Air Raid architects Hal Mumme and Mike Leach). The engine of this offense is QB Jack Abraham, who’s been a bit turnover-prone (8 INTs), but has also thrown for over 2200 yards and 13 TDs on a 70.5 percent completion percentage.

Their offense will primarily run out of four receiver sets, with plays designed to get those receivers in space. One of those plays, mesh, is one of the staple concepts of the Air Raid (which, in its purest forms, actually only includes four or five passing concepts). We’ll take a look at a version of mesh that Southern Miss runs below.

Rice Football, film room

Setup

It’s late in the second quarter in Southern Miss’ win over UTEP. and the Gold Eagles are up 14-3, with the ball at the UTEP 38 yard line. Southern Miss in a four receiver set, with three receivers in a bunch to the left. UTEP counters with a two-high look out of dime (6 DBs) personnel, with three down linemen and two linebackers.

The Play

As I said above, Southern Miss runs “mesh”, which is a core concept of the Air Raid but also shows up in playbooks across all levels of football these days. It involves a pair of shallow crossing routes from opposite ends of the field nearly meeting in the middle of the field. There are many variations, both in terms of formation and the other routes being run, but the crossers are the key. It’s a great play because it can put stress on both man and zone coverages, and having versatile plays which work against different defensive looks is a core Air Raid philosophy.

More: Southern Miss week press conference quotes

The version here is pretty classic, though the bunch allows for a variation. Normally an inside receiver to the strong side runs the crosser from that side, but here’s it’s the outside (or No. 1) receiver, running under the No. 2 (who’s on the line) and the No. 3 inside. The No. 2 runs a corner route, the No. 3 runs to the flat, and to the weak side the back leaks into the flat and the receiver runs the other crosser.

It looks like UTEP’s in 2-Man coverage, with two deep safeties and everybody else playing man. The press corner is on the strongside No. 2, the boundary corner is on the weakside No. 1, and the weakside LB has the back. I can’t be sure but I think the other two underneath DBs to the trips side are playing banjo coverage on the two other receivers to that side.

Basically, that means the outside DB will pick up whichever receiver (in this case, the No. 3 receiver) goes outside, and the inside DB will pick up whoever goes inside (in this case, the No. 1, who’s running the crosser). Receivers often run “rubs” or “picks” (or “illegal offensive pass interference” if you’re a defensive guy) on DBs out of these bunches to get free releases for the other receivers, and banjo is a common strategy for preventing that.

More: Previewing Rice Football vs Southern Miss

In this case, it seems to be the inside DB that makes the error, chasing the No. 3 receiver to the flat instead of picking up the no. 1 receiver (Jaylond Adams) running the crosser. That crosser is actually usually the fourth read in most versions of mesh (the corner, the other crosser, and the flat route to that side are the first three), but I don’t think Abraham gets that far. Based on how quickly he turns his head and gets to the open man, I think he quickly sees that inside DB start to flow to the flat and knows that means that Adams will be wide open, which he is. The safety to that side does a great job slowing down and then tackling Adams to prevent a TD, but Adams still turns it into about a 15-yard gain.

So the Rice secondary, likely down top CB Andrew Bird, has its work cut out for them this week against this Southern Miss offense. They’re going to have to play smart and disciplined to keep these receivers from picking up chunk after chunk against them. Let’s hope the Owls are up to the challenge.

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Rice Football Film Room: LA Tech review and UAB preview

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The Week 5 edition of the Rice Football film room centers on Rice’s overtime loss to Louisiana Tech and their upcoming Week 6 opponent, UAB.

Hey y’all, Carter here, and welcome back the Rice Football Film Room. This week, we’ll take a quick look back at the heartbreaker against Louisiana Tech, before moving on to a couple plays from UAB quarterback Tyler Johnston III to get an idea of what the Owls will face in my hometown of Birmingham this week.

LA Tech

How the Rice Offense Should Look!

Rice’s offense, unfortunately, couldn’t get the job done Saturday night despite a stellar effort from the defense. That seems to be a theme this season. Still, in the first two drives we saw an extended glimpse of what the staff wants this offense to look like, and they were extremely effective in executing on those drives. Let’s take a look at Aston Walter’s first touchdown run.

Rice Football

Setup

We’re less than five minutes into the first quarter, and Rice has marched the ball downfield to the LA Tech 16-yard line on its opening drive. The Owls are in 22 personnel, with both Jaeger Bull and Jordan Myers on the left side of the line, Wiley Green under center, and FB Brendan Suckley and Walter in the I formation. LA Tech has three down linemen, three more guys walked up to the line, and four other guys in or close to the box to match Rice’s heavy personnel.

The Play

It’s a power toss, with Suckley kicking out the edge defender and RG Shea Baker pulling to lead the way for Walter. The OL do their jobs well. LG Nick Leverett does get driven back, but he stays engaged long enough to keep his man from blowing up the play (it’s not how you start a block—it’s how you finish it!). Suckley seals his man outside, Bull drives his two yards deep, Myers redirects his inside, and the gap is there for Baker to lead Walter through.

Amusingly, the LB that would’ve been Baker’s responsibility gets caught in the wash, and he never ends up having to block anyone at all. Bull’s man eventually manages to disengage, but only after he’s several yards downfield. At that point, Walter has built up too much speed for him to make the tackle. It’s a touchdown for Rice.

Great run blocking doesn’t mean every defender gets pancaked, especially when there are as many bodies involved as there are on this play. A lot of times it’s just about everybody doing their job just long enough to give the ballcarrier a chance to make the play. If Rice’s linemen, fullbacks, and tight ends can have the level of execution play in and play out that they did on these first two drives, they’ll be tough for C-USA teams to stop.

UAB

UAB’s defense has led the way for them so far, with the Blazers in the top 15 in the country in both total and scoring defense thus far. Those measures aren’t opponent- or tempo-adjusted (UAB hasn’t played any Power 5 opponents so far as compared to Rice’s three), but it’s safe to say they’re playing well on that side of the ball. The offense has lagged behind some—RB Spencer Brown (19.5 carries a game) and QB Tyler Johnston III (10.5 carries a game) are averaging a combined 3.4 yards per carry.

The Blazers use that ground game to set up aggressive play-action shots from Johnston. They’re at the best when he’s executing those, as he did in their 35-3 victory over South Alabama, when he threw for 313 yards and 3 TDs. But if he’s not on his game, that aggression can backfire, as it did in his 4-INT performance in their 20-13 loss to WKU last week. Let’s take a look at a play from each game to show the good and the bad for Johnston.

You Win Some . . .

Rice Football

Setup

It’s early in the first quarter against South Alabama (no score yet), and UAB has the ball 1st and 10 on their own 33. UAB’s in 12 personnel, with an inline TE to the boundary and an H-back, the RB, and two receivers to the field. USA’s in nickel personnel, showing a split safety look.

The Play

It’s a play-action rollout, cutting the field in half for Johnston. As the camera pans to Johnston, we lose sight of the receivers and DBs, but UAB looks to be running some form of the smash concept, with the outside receiver’s underneath route drawing the corner in to let the inside receiver Kendall Parham isolate on a safety with his corner route. This is exactly what happens, and Parham beats the safety cleanly. Johnston hits him over the top, and it’s a long touchdown for UAB.

Notice that Johnston hesitates a bit before throwing the ball once he finishes his rollout, but he drives the ball well enough that Parham only has to slow a little bit to catch it. The safety almost catches him afterwards, but Parham slips through his diving tackle attempt. It didn’t hurt Johnston here, but that hesitation can be costly for quarterbacks, as we’ll see in the next clip.

. . . You Lose Some

Rice football, film room

Setup

We’re about halfway through the 1st quarter of what will eventually be a tight loss for UAB. The Blazers have the ball 1st and 10 at about their own 38, up 3-0. They’re in 11 personnel, with two receivers to the field and a single receiver, the back, and an H-back to the boundary. WKU’s in nickel personnel with a split safety look.

The Play

It’s play action again, and Johnston is looking to hit the post route by the #2 receiver (the slot) to the field side. WKU drops into what looks to be Cover 4, commonly known as Quarters. It’s a 4-deep, 3-under look which is a very common way of defending spread offenses (which most college football offenses are now, of course) in today’s game. It’s predicated on having safeties who can read their keys quickly and flow downhill against the run, while also being athletic enough to play man on vertical routes by the inside receivers.

Here, the outside receivers release vertically, so the corners play man on them. The safeties read the releases of the No. 2 receivers (the slot and the H-back). If they go vertical up the seams, the safeties have them in man. The slot does so, so the free safety bails deep to stay over the top of his route. The H-back stays in to block, so the strong safety stays put and reads the QB. Meanwhile, the nickelback and the SAM (strongside) linebacker head to their zones in the flats. The MIKE, No. 36 Kyle Bailey, sinks back into the shallow middle (the “middle hook”) zone.

More: Why Intellectual Brutality remains a staple of the Rice offense

Johnston wants the slot receiver on the post route. Neither of the safeties have really bit on the play action and there are no, so he needs to throw it in front of the sinking free safety, but away from the strong safety, who’s read his eyes and is breaking hard underneath the route. Bailey, the MLB, takes a few steps forward on the run action, and I think that’s what keys Johnston to make the pass. Here’s what he sees as he reaches the end of his dropback.

Decision time

Rice Football, film room

The slot hasn’t made his cut yet, but the ball has to come out now. This is what we mean when we talk about throwing with anticipation. A great QB has to know when the ball needs to get to a receiver and trust that his guy will be there when it does. If Johnstown throws now and is accurate, the ball will get to his receiver right after he’s broken toward the middle of the field, with space to run away from the FS, who is still sinking to keep from getting beat. Neither the MIKE nor the SS will have time to get under the throw before it arrives.

But Johnston hesitates at the top of his drop, and that makes the difference. Bailey, who does a great job of recovering, has time to drop back into his zone and turn his eyes back to the QB in time to snag the ball.. Additionally, the SS has had time to break under the throw and probably would have made the pick if Bailey hadn’t. If Johnston releases the ball on time, he has space to fit this throw in. As it is, the receiver is essentially triple-covered by the time the ball arrives. It’s the first of four picks on the day for UAB’s QB.

More: Check out the game preview for Rice vs UAB

Now, I don’t mean to pick on Johnston here. Even very very talented QBs can take a long time to develop the skill to make anticipatory throws—Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts, who’s putting up superhuman stats so far this year, struggled to get the ball out on time during his first two years at Alabama. And UAB’s offense has him making very aggressive throws, which means that his INT numbers are going to be higher than they would in a safer system.

My point though, is I think Rice football has a really good shot of nabbing their first interception (maybe more) on Saturday. If the Owls’ DBs can be in tight coverage as they have most of the year, UAB’s aggressive throws and Johnston’s slow trigger will give them some opportunities to turn the ball over and maybe spark some life into their offense as well.

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