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Rice Football 2019 Game Preview: Owls vs Wake Forest

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Rice Football returns to Houston for their 2019 home opener against Wake Forest. How to watch, stats to know, x-factor picks for both teams and more.

A 1-0 start for Wake Forest and an 0-1 start for Rice were both results of games that came down to the final minutes. Neither team faced a deficit larger than seven points in their first game the difference was what each squad was able to accomplish when the clock ticked under two minutes.

Rice quarterback Wiley Green saw his fourth down pass fall to the ground incomplete. Wake Forest’s Jamie Newman found Kendall Hinton in the endzone on fourth down for the go-ahead score.

The Owls feel like their Week 1 loss to Army was a winnable game which got away from them. Here’s how they stack up with their Week 2 opponent, Wake Forest.

Broadcast Info

Kickoff time | 7:00 PM CT
Venu | Rice Stadium – Houston, Tx
TV | CBS Sports Network
Radio | Sports Map 94.1 (FM) / Stretch Internet (Online)
Streaming | CBSSN Online

Audio Preview

Episode 6 of The Roost Podcast is live. Find us on the podcast page or wherever you like to listen to podcasts. (And consider leaving us a 5-star review while you’re at it.) This week Carter and I broke down the good and the bad from the Army game then moved on to Week 2, discussing how Rice matches up with Wake Forest.

Sizing up the contenders

A year ago these teams didn’t look to belong on the same field. Wake Forest rolled at home, winning 56-24 behind the dangerous combination of quarterback Sam Hartman and wide receiver Greg Dortch. That duo combined for four touchdowns in the rout, but neither will be in the starting lineup against Rice on Friday. Dortch has moved on. Hartman was beat out for the starting job this fall.

The 2019 versions of these teams look slightly different. The Rice defense looked aggressive in their opener against Army while their offense stalled. On the other sideline, Wake Forest had a hard time getting off the field against Utah State, but overcame those deficiencies with a surplus of offensive firepower.

This matchup will pair strength against strength (Rice defense vs Wake Forest offense) and weakness against weakness (Rice offense vs Wake Forest defense).

Series History

All Time | Series tied 1-1
Last Five | Series tied 1-1
Last Meeting | Wake Forest won at Wake Forest 56-24 in 2018

Rice Stat Notables

Passing | Green – 7/14 (50 percent), 62 yards passing, 0 TD, 0 INT
Rushing | Ellerbe – 9 carries, 103 yards (11.4 yards per carry), 1 TD
Receiving | Trammell – 4 receptions, 40 yards (10 yards per reception)
Tackles | Montero – 11
Pass Breakups/Interceptions | N/A

Wake Forest Stat Notables

Passing | Newman – 34/47 (72.3 percent), 401 yards passing, 3 TD, 0 INT
Rushing | Carney – 25 carries, 105 yards (4.2 yards per carry)
Receiving | Surrat – 7 receptions, 158 yards (22.6 yards per reception), 1 TD
Tackles | Strnad – 12
Pass Breakups/Interceptions | Henderson, Strnad, Rucker – Tied with 1

Wake Forest X-Factor | The ground game

Quarterback Jamie Newman is not a traditional pocket passer. He has a good arm, but he’ll try to attack the Owls on the ground too, along with lead running back Cade Carney. That duo combined for 46 carries, 141 rushing yards and a touchdown in their Week 1 win over Utah State.

Stopping the run was a strength of the Rice defense a year ago and the notable bright spot of their Week 1 game against Army. That will make setting the tone in the trenches a necessity for the Owls in Week 2. If Rice can hold their own up front, they’ll limit force Wake Forest to be more one-dimensional, allowing the safeties to spend more time helping in pass coverage than plugging holes at the line of scrimmage.

Rice X-Factor | Corner play

This will be the first true test for a Rice secondary of the season. Army quarterback Kelvin Hopkins attempted just eight passes, but the lone touchdown came on a critical fourth quarter drive with no defender in the vicinity of the wideout who snagged what would be the game-winning touchdown.

Rice has had strong safety play, highlighted by the swarming defense of Treshawn Chamberlain and the intensity of George Nyakwol. The corners are unproven. Corners Andrew Bird, D’Angelo Ellis, Tyrae Thornton, Josh Landrum and Tre’shon Devones saw action against Army and should all be in the mix against Wake Forest.

The Demon Deacons are going to throw the ball around the yard, something they succeeded in against the Owls last year. If the corner play doesn’t show improvement, the Rice offense is going to be tasked with digging out of a sizable hole.

Injury Report

A detailed injury update is available in our Sunday practice update. Further updates will be provided here as the week progresses. Here’s a quick synopsis.

Running back Juma Otoviano underwent a procedure and will be out for the foreseeable future. Given the depth in the backfield and the uncertainty of his recovery timetable, he could be a candidate to redshirt this season, possibly playing in a few games down the stretch.

Both running back Charlie Booker and wide receiver Zane Knipe were last minute scratches against Army, but both could have gone if the situation warranted it. Barring a set back during the week, it’s possible both play against Wake Forest.

Kicker Zack Hoban is out of his boot but not yet kicking in practice. His status for Friday’s game is unknown.

Need More?

The Roost’s 2019 Rice Football Season Preview has four pages dedicated to every opponent the Owls face. There are depth chart, important new arrivals and depth chart breakdowns for each foe. Better yet, it’s not just speculation, each profile was created with insight from local experts who cover those teams day in and day out. Pick up your copy today and get four pages and more than 1,000 words on Wake Forest.

Pick ‘Em Contest

If you haven’t yet, make sure you submit your entry for The Roost’s weekly pick’em challenge. Choose an answer to each of the six questions below and submit them on the forum thread to enter.

  1. How many players attempt a pass for Rice?
    (Over 1.5 / Under 1.5)
  2. Which team will have more rushing yards?
    (Rice / Wake Forest)
  3. Which happens first – Rice touchdown or Rice forces a turnover?
    (Touchdown / Turnover)
  4. How many sacks will the Rice defense get?
    (Over 2.5 / Under 2.5)
  5. Who is leading at the end of Q1?
    (Wake Forest / Rice or Tied)
  6. Who wins?
    (Rice / Wake Forest)

One Final Thing

There was plenty of good and bad to take away from the Owls’ Week 1 loss against Army, but it was just one game. The sample size is too small to draw too many meaningful conclusions. That’s what makes this next game all the more important. Rice can either solidify concerns leftover from their season-opening defeat or they can alleviate the worry with a strong showing in Week 2.

Wake Forest is a good football team, another quality opponent in a challenging non-conference slate. Rice showed their competitive spark against Army, now it’s time to see if they can get all phases working together at the same time. At this point in the season, it’s hard to be sure exactly what this team is going to be but the first impression was overwhelmingly positive.

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2019 Rice Football Season Preview by The Roost

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The staff of The Roost is pleased to announce the release of the 2019 Rice Football Season Preview, a 143-page digital magazine detailing everything you could imagine about the Owls’ upcoming season.

This preview is the culmination of months of research, interviews and analysis. Consider it your one-stop-shop as you prepare for the Owls’ 2019 season.

Available as a downloadable PDF for on-the-go access, this preview contains the following:

1. A breakdown of every position group on the team

Who are the favorites to start entering fall camp? What sort of production should you expect from returning starters? Which of the incoming transfer players should make their mark the quickest? Answers to all of those questions are included, as well as notes on every single player on the 102-man roster.

2. An exclusive interview with head coach Mike Bloomgren

We sat down with coach to get his honest evaluation of where the Rice football program is right now and how he views the progress the team is making as they approach 2019. He’s sticking to a process, one which he remains confident will bring success to South Main.

3. Previews of each 2019 opponent and all 14 CUSA Teams

Supported by local beat writers and experts who cover each team, this section has a wealth of knowledge about every CUSA Team and all the Owls’ 2019 opponents.

Rice fans will want to familiarize themselves with the teams they’ll be facing this year. Get to know which players each squad will have to replace, which newcomers could make noise in 2019 and what outstanding questions those in the know have about their respective squads.

4. A complete 2019 Conference USA Football Preview

Available separately to purchase, everyone who purchases the 2019 Rice Football Season Preview will also get The Roost’s 2019 Conference USA Football Preview. We made our picks for preseason honors, top games to watch in 2019 and a closer look at how every team in the conference stacks up.

Don’t need any more convincing? Get a copy for yourself today

Buy Now

 

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Rice Football: Will the Owls find a bellcow running back in 2019?

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Run-first offenses often trust one primary rusher. That wasn’t quite the case last year, but could Rice football find a bell cow back in 2019?

Dating back to Mike Bloomgren’s days at Stanford, the current Rice head man has tended toward trusting one man to carry the brunt of the load in the backfield. The Owls didn’t have that one guy last year, or at least, they never settled on one back who was healthy enough and consistent enough to take on that role in this offense. Sort of.

Here’s what the distribution of carries looked among the top four Rice rushers in 2018:

By Raw Stats

Player Austin Walter Emmanuel Esukpa Juma Otoviano Aston Walter
Att 133 122 65 64
Yds 564 461 364 254
TD 4 3 3 0

By Percentage

Player Austin Walter Emmanuel Esukpa Juma Otoviano Aston Walter
% Att 27% 25% 13% 13%
% Yds 30% 25% 19% 14%
% TD 27% 20% 20% 0%

The apparent balance wasn’t really the case. One running back registered at least 50 percent of the Owls’ non-quarterback rushes in 10 of 13 games Rice played last year. In six of those games, the lead back was responsible for at least two-thirds of the attempts.

That distribution was largely a function of the roles each of those four backs played as the offense evolved. Emmanuel Esupka was the bruiser north-south runner who started the year as the primary ball carrier before falling out of the rotation with injuries. Splitting time with him initially was Austin Walter, who shifted out to receiver midway through the year.

Stat Pack: Analyzing the Owls against the spread

That left Juma Otoviano and Aston Walter as the remaining options. Otoviano took the lead back duties, increasing his role from the wildcat quarterback earlier in the year. Aston was the glue, filling in whenever the pieces moved around him, registering a career-high 23 carries against LSU.

As the 2019 season looms, Austin and Esukpa are gone. Aston and Otoviano remain with an interesting crop of talent behind them including Harvard transfer Charlie Booker and incoming freshman Jawan King. Will Bloomgren have a lead guy to trust for the duration of the 2019 season? We might just have to wait and see.

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Season Statpack – 10 telling numbers from 2018

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It’s impossible to boil an entire Rice football season into a handful of numbers, but these 10 paint a fairly comprehensive picture of the Owls’ 2018 campaign.

2 – Wins for the Owls

Following a 1-win 2017 campaign, Rice football showed tangible improvement this season, doubling their win total. It took them all 13 games to pick up their first conference win, but the Owls didn’t leave the season empty-handed. Progress has been made.

4 – Interceptions by Prudy Calderon

Prudy Calderon became one of the Owls’ starting safeties midway through the season then proceeded to pick off four passes in a stretch of five games. His four interceptions tied him for 13th most in the nation by any player. Having him manning centerfield for an entire season should be fun.

18 – Fourth down conversions

Rice’s willingness to roll the dice on fourth down was refreshing. Their 60 percent success rate continued to climb during the season and finished third best in CUSA. This offense is going to be aggressive, something that will be fun to watch and keep opponents constantly on their toes.

19 – True freshman that appeared in at least one game this season

The youth movement is alive and well at South Main. In addition to key starters like Cole Garcia, Prudy Calderon and Antonio Montero, a host of first-year players got on the field in 2018. 10 true freshman started for Rice over the course of the year.

1,580 – All Purpose yards for running back Austin Walter

Do it-all running back, receiver and return man Austin Walter was the glue that held this offense together during long stretches of the season. He finished 14th in the nation in all-purpose yards, flirting with the national lead early in the season. Walter averaged 8.1 yards per play this season.

28.7 Percent third down conversion rate

Becoming a more consistent offense on third down will be near the top of the priority list this season. For whatever the reason, Rice struggled to convert third downs at an alarming rate in 2018. Fourth downs weren’t an issue and but the quantity can be taken down a notch with a few more third down conversions next season.

31 – Punts inside the 20 by Jack Fox

Not only was Jack Fox one of the most consistent players for the Owls, he ranks among the best players at his position in the entire nation. A Ray Guy Award Finalist, Fox led the nation in punts inside the 20, flipping the field with regularity.

44 and 78 – Long scrimmage plays made by the Owls and against the Owls

The Rice offense was not explosive this season. They had their moments but finished near the bottom of the pack with 44 plays of 20+ yards. The lack of pop combined with a defense that finished last in CUSA with 78 plays of 20+ yards allowed put them on the short ends of both sticks.

32:40 – Average time of possession for Rice

Pound the rock, control the clock and play great defense is the new mantra on South Main. Rice finished 16th in average time of possession this season, limiting the opportunities opposing offenses had to do damage. This measure should prove more powerful as the offense progresses.

224 – Rushing yards by Juma Otoviano against Old Dominion

Fresh in minds of Rice fans because of its recency, the performance true freshman Juma Otoviano put on in the Owls’ season finale was superb. He had more rushing yards on his two touchdown runs (142) than he had during his career entering the game (140). He tied Chad Richardson for fifth-most in a single game in Rice history, was named CUSA offensive player of the week and got an ESPN helmet sticker.

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3 Big questions entering the offseason

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Rice football proved they’re on the right track, closing out the 2018 season with a win. What questions remain entering a long offseason for the Owls?

1. Can the coaching staff produce back to back stud recruiting classes?

Mike Bloomgren couldn’t stop raving about the freshman class during fall camp prior to the season. He said the hit rate on these guys was tremendous and he wasn’t wrong. Wiley Green, Juma Otoviano, Cole Garcia, Antonio Montero, Prudy Calderon, Tyrae Thornton and several others played significant roles for this team in their first years of college ball.

The trajectory of this program will be set by how well Bloomgren and his staff build on that first successful class. If they can find a few more gems in the 2019 group they’ll take the talent level at Rice through a step change. More talent creates more competition which leads to better players and better results. The recruiting formula starts with talent.

Don’t mistake the need for a second strong class with a search for stars. Just because a signee or recruit doesn’t have the best grades on 247 or Rivals doesn’t mean he’s not the right fit for this system and this scheme. Trust the process. Through one abbreviated cycle the staff has proven they can find the guys they need.

2. What will the offensive line look like in Year 2 under Mike Bloomgren?

It took the Rice offensive line much longer to gel than anyone on the staff would have hoped. The constant flurry of changing parts and shaky play prompted the insertion of young players down the line, eventually solidifying into a starting five of Uzoma Osuji, Cole Garcia, Shea Baker, Joseph Dill and Sam Pierce.

Pierce and Dill won’t return next year and Osuji will see competition at the left tackle position from freshman Clay Servin who started while Osuji was out with injury. That leaves Garcia and Baker as two relatively sure-things in another mix of players and combinations.

The inconsistency of the offensive line was a major inhibitor to the offense in 2018. The way this unit gels in the spring and continues to develop this fall will be an important barometer for how quickly the offense can continue to progress in Year 2.

3. Who will be the playmakers on offense in 2019?

Entering the 2018 season Emmanuel Esukpa and Aaron Cephus were tabbed by most as the most likely playmakers on the offense. Both had their moments and were instrumental in the development of the offense throughout the year, but by the end of the season, there were different faces carrying the load.

Wiley Green, Austin Walter, Austin Trammell and Juma Otoviano became fixtures and various points of the season, ending the year as go-to players to a much greater degree than even some of the coaching staff might have expected.

Who steps up in 2019? It could be some of those same leaders. Green and Otoviano will both be sophomore and Trammell will be back for his junior season, too. But there are also players like Brendan Harmon, August Pitre and D’Angelo Ellis who saw their roles severely limited by injury as well as incoming recruits like running back Jawan King and wide receiver Zane Knipe. There are a lot of options. It will be interesting to see who emerges to move this offense forward.

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