The college football world is reeling from a series of announcements this week. What happened? And what’s going to happen next?
On Wednesday afternoon, the Ivy League released a detailed, powerful statement that included this telling line:
“It will not be possible for Ivy League teams to participate in intercollegiate athletics competition prior to the end of the fall semester. ”
No intercollegiate athletics competition means no football. And no football is a very, very uncomfortable notion for many in this country. This piece is not going to get into the politicization of the current environment. There are other forums for that conversation. Instead, let’s address the why and the impacts currently reverberating around college football.
Why did the Ivy League cancel football?
Football is the biggest financial driver in college sports. It’s no secret that the loss of a football season would push just about every athletic department further into the red. Staying in a positive place financially is important, but at what cost?
In this case, “the safety and well-being of students as their highest priority” outweighed the monetary gains that football would have brought. At the FCS level, that’s admittedly a much smaller purse than the upper echelon of the sport. At the end of the day though, this decision forced administrators to weigh the tradeoffs between safety and money. In the Ivy League, safety won out.
The ripple effects continue
Others will follow. We’ve already seen an array of FCS teams cancel games due to COVID-19 concerns. Some lower-level schools in D2, D3 and NAIA have gone so far as to cancel seasons. There will be more news along those lines.
Entering Thursday there were already FBS schools with holes on their schedule because of those canceled games. More than a half dozen programs had halted voluntary workouts because of positive test results, with notable programs like Ohio State and North Carolina suspending activities on Wednesday. Positive test results that were concerning in June will become increasingly more so as the calendar inches closer to September.
The ACC delayed all sports until no sooner than Sept. 1 on Thursday morning. Before the day was through reports surfaced that the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 would cancel all non-conference football games. 10 of 14 Conference USA teams will have lost games. Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion and Western Kentucky have already lost two. Marshall’s Week 0 game against East Carolina is scheduled for August 29. Players are scheduled to report for mandatory workouts soon, meaning a decision on whether or not that game (or other non-conference games) will be played at all.
25 percent “and dwindling”
In a statement given to the Denton Record-Chronicle, Conference USA Commissioner Judy MacLeod was noncommittal. “We are continuing to discuss with our membership, but no decisions have been made,” she said. “We are receiving advice from medical experts and examining all options.”
Earlier in the week, a source within the Rice program indicated he would be surprised if they played football this fall. Since then that same source said the likelihood of a fall season being played to be at 25% “and dwindling”. Conference USA coaches have been in constant communication throughout the day. This snowball isn’t slowing down. If anything, it’s escalating.
What’s going to happen next?
It took 72 hours for college basketball to be shut down. The Ivy League’s cancelation went out at 4:45 p.m. on Wednesday. Following that trajectory, we could be looking at a very different college football world by the time the weekend arrives.
But, before we get there, it’s important to note a few things. First, the SEC indicated they wanted to wait “as long as they can” before making any decisions on their schedule. It’s expected Rice will wait and see what the SEC does before making a decision on the LSU game.
I’d imagine, and this is speculative on my part, that most conferences will operate under the notion that they will be playing football this fall for as long as possible. In the interim, that probably means pushing the season back, canceling non-conference games and assessing what things look like down the road. Playing an October to December scheduled would be preferred to any sort of spring arrangement.
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Conceptually, it’s possible, but I’d be surprised to see any Group of 5 conference able to operate under a different scheduling structure than the Power 5 leagues. If the financial powers of the sport can’t justify the risks, how could a Group of 5 team do so? Even if the logistics work, the risk at this point is hard to sell. If there is football this fall, and that’s getting to seem like a larger and larger if with every passing hour, it’s most likely going to feature a heavily abbreviated schedule.
Given the health risks and dollars potentially at stake, pushing the season back a month, at least, seems like the most likely outcome for the time being. If we get to the end of August and the situation isn’t improved it will be time for another, much more harrowing conversation. Canceling these games is more so about buying time than anything else.
What about football in the spring?
Spring football is a legitimate option, but before consensus shifts there, it’s important to note there is no guarantee the COVID-19 situation will be any better in February than it will be in October. We all hope it will be, but we felt that same hope four months ago. And here we are.
There’s just so much we don’t know. Right now administrators are trying to make the best decisions they can in a time of incredible uncertainty.
Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren was as direct as possible in a statement to Sports Illustrated. “We’re trying to figure out a way to play a season safely and responsibly,” he said. “But we’re also prepared not to play.”
This situation is going to continue to develop. If March was any indication, the world of college athletics as we know it might look very different in the coming days, if not hours. Stay tuned.
