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College Football: Odds suggest a bumpy 2020 season

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The past few weeks have served as a stark reminder that no matter how many precautions are taken, no college football game can be guaranteed.

When this post goes live on Saturday morning, 16 college football games will have been postponed since the season began three weeks ago. At the conclusion of today, 49 games will have been completed as scheduled. Simple math says that’s a rate of roughly one in four scheduled contests never making it to the field.

Rice football’s crosstown rival Houston was the latest to experience that staggering statistic firsthand. The Cougars were meant to play Baylor today in one of the quickest scheduling maneuvers in recent college football memory. The game was organized and planned in a little less than a week’s time. Less than 24 hours before kickoff, that game had been squelched too.

Houston’s equipment truck was already at the stadium.

Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen couldn’t spell it out on social media, but his non-so-subtle collection of characters conveyed a frustration mounting among coaches, players and fans alike. For whatever reason, this game just wasn’t meant to be.

Back to the math.

If rapid testing helps limit the impacts of transmission and contact tracing, that 25% number will be too high. But if the impacts of positive cases begin to tick upward as the number of games increase, it could be too low. The best we can do for the time being is use the data we have now as a proxy for what is to come.

If this rate of cancelations continues, the chances of having a season that looked anything like the “best case scenario” is slim. Many conferences have built in some buffer room and flexibility, but that would fix multiple cancelations per school. Eventually, the calendar runs out.

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Given any 10-game schedule with a 25% cancelation rate, a team would have roughly a 5% chance of playing all 10 games. On average, every 10-game schedule would end up with two to three cancelations. That’s sobering.

Those that do play could find themselves in situations like Austin Peay: who played their first game of the year without any healthy long snappers and relied on quarterback pooch punts. Or Texas State, which swapped quarterbacks because from game one to game two because of precautions. It’s going to be weird.

Some teams will be more fortunate than others. The odds suggest somewhere around a half dozen of the teams playing this fall will complete their entire schedules as-is. Some others will be on the other end, losing large chunks of their seasons. It’s going to be strange, but that’s the reality of playing college football under these conditions.

Be grateful for the college football you do get to watch this year. From Campell vs Coastal Carolina on national TV to a marquee SEC matchup in October and everything in between. If your team is playing, cherish it. There’s no guarantee they’ll be playing next Saturday, no matter what the schedule says.

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The Roost Podcast | Ep 51 – 2020 Top 15 Most Important Rice Football players

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The 2020 Rice football team is constructed of studs and up-and-coming stars. Carter and Matthew debate the 15 most important players.

The upswing of this week’s college football rollercoaster has Carter and Matthew optimistically looking toward a 2020 Rice Football season this fall. The duo compares their lists regarding which players are the most important factors in that season becoming a success.

You can always find previous episodes on the podcast page. For now, give a listen to Episode 51.

Episode 51 Notes

  • Housekeeping — Make sure you hit the button and subscribe on Patreon so you don’t miss what’s happening. As always, thanks to all of you who have followed the show on Twitter and left a review on iTunes. It’s quick, but it makes a difference.

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  • Return to play and news updates
    • The Big Ten announced their return to play plans this week
    • Pac-12 schools cleared by governors to return to practice
    • Recruiting dead period extended through Jan. 1, 2021
  • Top 15 Most important Rice football players for 2020
    • Carter and Matthew each compiled their own lists independently then revealed them and discussed their criteria live on the podcast.
    • There were seven players featured on both lists and a spirited debate on who was too high, too low and who they might have missed.

 

Spoiler Alert — Top 15 lists below

If you don’t want to know who makes each list before listening… stop reading now.

 

*Bold players appear in both lists

 Carter’s Top 15

T1. Mike Collins, QB
T1. JoVoni Johnson, QB
3. De’Braylon Carroll, DT
T4. Jason White, CB
T4. Andrew Bird, CB
6. Juma Otoviano, RB
T7. Trey Schuman, DE
T7. Kenneth Orji, DE
9. Tre’shon Devones, CB
10. Zane Knipe, WR
11. Treshawn Chamberlain, Viper
12. Blaze Alldredge, LB
T13. August Pitre, WR
T13. Christian McStravick, WR
15. Jovaun Woolford, OL

 Matthew’s Top 15

1. Mike Collins, QB
2. Blaze Alldredge, LB
3. De’Braylon Carroll, DT
4. Clay Servin, OL
5. Jordan Myers, TE
6. George Nyakwol, SAF
7. Brad Rozner, WR
8. Treshawn Chamberlain, Viper
9. Austin Trammell, WR
10. Antonio Montero, LB
11. Trey Schuman, DE
12. JoVoni Johnson, QB
13. Shea Baker, OL
14. Juma Otoviano, RB
15. Charlie Mendes, P

Where can you find us?

Download and subscribe to The Roost Podcast on any of your favorite podcast providers. The show is available on iTunes, GooglePlay, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, TuneIn and PodBean. Please consider leaving a review wherever you listen.

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Rice Football: 2021 Wide Receiver Peyton Stevenson commits to Owls

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The 2021 Rice Football recruiting class has picked up their first commitment from a wide receiver. Alabama native Peyton Stevenson has committed to the Owls.

Rice football has been on the hunt for pass catchers to add to the 2021 class for some time. Tight end Jaggar Hebeisen was one of the first in the fold during the spring, but the Owls had yet to secure a pledge from a wide receiver as the calendar crept out of the summer and towards the fall.

Then Rice offered Demopolis, AL wide receiver Peyton Stevenson on Sep. 10. A week later the big-bodied pass catcher had pledged his commitment to the Owls. Stevenson will fill a pressing need on the outside, giving Rice some more options to “rebound” and outjump defenders in the redzone. Brad Rozner has taken up that role for the time being, but he won’t be around forever.

With his decision, Stevenson becomes the second quickest from offer to commit in the 2021 recruiting class. Only Ethan Onianwa who committed two days after his offer was quicker. The rest of class, which is likely more typical of college recruiting these days, took weeks to sift through their options. Stevenson clearly knew what he was after an made the jump.

“The academic excellence as well as the high caliber football is what initially turned my head,” Stevenson said, “I was also comfortable with the coaching staff because of the way they communicated and the effort they put into me and my family. I felt like it was a great opportunity, and I’m glad to be a part of the family!”

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Rice also continued their trend of identifying talent early. The Owls were the first FBS program to offer Stevenson, who also had offers from Jacksonville State, North Alabama and Culver-Stockton and the time of his Rice commitment.

Versatility is a huge plus in the Rice football offense. Stevenson’s playmaking ability with the ball in his hands as a quarterback will only aid to what he’s able to do as a wide receiver. This was a good pickup for the Owls who now have 12 commitments and a Top 5 class among their Conference USA peers.

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Rice Baseball: 2020 MLB Owls update – September 17

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The 2020 MLB season is underway and Rice baseball alums are making noise. Here’s the latest on the MLB Owls from the week of September 17.

Anthony Rendon – Los Angeles Angels

The shortened season hasn’t put a damper on Anthony Rendon’s effectiveness. He and Mike Trout have been the bright spots in an otherwise erratic Angels lineup that ranks a tad south of the midpoint among MLB offenses. At the plate, Rendon is pushing the former MVP with a strong season of his own. As of this week, Rendon was on pace for several career-bests:

Holding up these numbers over the course of a 162 game season would be more arduous than this shortened campaign, but the eye-popping nature of some of these rates is impressive nonetheless. Rendon has proven to be everything the Angels could have hoped for when they signed him this offseason.

Through September 16, Rendon is hitting .277 with 17 extra-base hits, 33 walks and 24 strikeouts.

Tyler Duffey – Minnesota Twins

Duffey was off for five days following his first blown save of the year last week. He entered a Sep. 12 game against the Indians in the eighth inning with one out and finished the frame, walking one and striking out another. Duffey, who always wears the No. 21 jersey, was joined that day by teammates Nelson Cruz, José Berríos and Eddie Rosario who also wore the number in honor of Roberto Clemente. He tossed three more scoreless innings over the next five days, allowing one hit and striking out four.

Through September 16, Duffey has a 1.77 ERA with a .836 WHIP. He’s averaging 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings.

Brock Holt – Washington Nationals

Holt appeared in 12 games with the Nationals following his release from the Brewers. His next appearance in DC will have to wait, but for good reason. Holt was placed on the Paternity list this week. During the offseason, he announced he and his wife were expecting a baby in late September.

Through September 16, Holt is hitting .221 overall and .316 with the Nationals. Since signing with Washington, Holt is 12-for-38 with four extra-base hits.

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Rice Football: What happened to playing in the spring?

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The 2020 Rice Football season is cloaked in uncertainty, but playing in the spring is unlikely to be the answer for the Owls.

Over the past several months I’ve had conversations with several folks about the feasibility of spring football. Should Rice football not play a fall season, could they play later in the academic year? The answer: it’s theoretically possible, but unlikely.

I’ll start with something that most everyone I’ve spoken to at Rice seems to agree with. If a fall season can be played, that’s the best option.

Plan A, if you were to call it such, would enable Rice to play for a conference championship. That would be the closest semblance to a “normal” schedule the Owls could achieve. Rice has already chopped that “normal” down to a slightly less recognizable “familiar”, but the general theme remains.

Moving to the spring would bring with it a new set of challenges that go beyond whatever the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic were at that point.

It’s hard to count on relief from other conferences. The Big Ten announced today they’re going to attempt a fall season after all. The Pac-12, which (as of now) is not playing this fall, could reconsider too.

Unless the Mountain West or the MAC choose to have multiple schools make Rice their non-conference game in a hypothetical spring slate, the pickings for opponents will be slim to none.

Without any conference affiliated opponents, a spring slate might not be plausible. Rice’s best-case scenario might be two home-and-homes with New Mexico State and Old Dominion. That might be better than no season at all, but the optics certainly don’t look great. For those reasons, the focus remains squarely on playing this fall.

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