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Rice Football Stat Pack: Turnover margin due for a reversal

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Rice football is due for a change of fortune with turnovers. After four years of a negative turnover margin, the ball should bounce more favorably in 2019.

For the fourth year in a row, Rice football finished with a negative turnover margin. The Owls handle on the football was inconsistent, committing 23 turnovers over the course of 13 games. The defense did their part, recovering 11 fumbles and snagging eight interceptions. The Owls’ 19 turnovers forced ranked in the middle of the pack among their conference peers. The 23 lost was third from the most.

As unfortunate as the Owls’ turnover woes were in 2018, it could be one of the most correctable facets of the team’s statistical profile. While talent and execution play a significant role in turnover production, it remains one of the most random events in football. Luck, in the form of favorable bounces and fortunate positioning play as much of a role in forcing turnovers (and committing them) as anything else.

More: Finding more effective quarterback play a focal point of 2019

Over the past five seasons, only one Conference USA team has posted a negative turnover margin in each year: Southern Miss. Three of those seasons the Golden Eagles finished with a turnover margin of -1. Conversely, Louisiana Tech is the only school to post a positive turnover margin five years in a row. They were +1 in two of those seasons.

UTEP, who had the worst margin in CUSA last season at -17, posted a +9 mark as recently as 2014. That would have been tied for the best margin in the conference in 2018. Turnovers are fluky, and that’s something which should swing back in the Owls favor in 2019.

Five straight years on either side of the ledger are uncommon. The odds will level out.

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Rice Football Stat Pack: Quarterback efficiency a must for offensive growth

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The quarterback is the most important player on the field, making quarterback rating something Rice Football must strive to improve in 2019.

It might seem too simplistic, but good offenses typically have good quarterbacks. Moving the ball doesn’t require an extremely talented quarterback, but efficiency from that position tends to impact a given football team more than any other player on the field.

Quarterback rating is a statistic meant to boil down a passer’s total production profile into one number. In general a quarterback with a high quarterback rating: throws more touchdowns than interceptions and completes a large portion of his passes. The precise formula, for those interested, is this:

(8.4 x [Passing Yards] + 330 x [Touchdowns Thrown] – 200 x [Interceptions Thrown]  + 100 x [Completions] ) / [Attempts]

That pulls together five important passing statistics into one number. It’s not the most powerful number in isolation — it doesn’t mean much to the average person that Shawn Stankavage had a quarterback rating of 113.5 last season. It is powerful in the right context.

Stankavage, the Owls’ starting quarterback for the majority of the season, had the 10th best quarterback rating in Conference USA. Given the number of teams in the conference, that made his production profile near the bottom of his competitors. The overall offensive stats bore out a similar result. Rice ranked 12th in scoring offense and 13th in passing offense last season.

More: Taking a closer look at yards per play

If you look at the conference’s top-rated passers, the hierarchy of teams begins to take shape. FIU’s James Morgan led the way with a 157.6 rating. Brent Stockstill of MTSU was second at 150.7. Following him were Mason Fine of North Texas (149.4) and Jack Abraham of Southern Miss (147.4). Those four teams combined to go 23-9 in conference play.

It’s too simplistic to equate a high quarterback rating to winning football. But the connection between the two is more meaningful than not.

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Rice Baseball: Bullpen fades as 2019 draws to a close

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The 2019 Rice baseball season is in the books, closing the door on a bullpen which simply ran out of gas in the final weeks of the year.

The end of the 2019 season was jarring for the Rice bullpen. Four consecutive walk-off losses with blown save opportunities took their toll on a unit which had been up and down all year. Reasons for confidence were lacking, adding to the immense pressure each of these guys was facing whenever they took the mound.

More Season Review — Starting Pitching — Fielding — Lineup

Beyond the scope of one awful week, though, the bullpen had its moments. Pitcher for pitcher, here’s a look at how they faired over the duration of the 2019 season.

Kendal Jefferies

3-4 Record | 4.15 ERA | 23 Appearances | 43.1 Innings | 41 K | 14 BB | .294 Batting Avg Against

There was a period of time when Jefferies was the most reliable option Rice had in the pen. Particularly early in the season, he posted superb outings against UC-Irvine, Houston and Oklahoma. He less effective in conference play, opening the door for others to see opportunities on the bump.

Dalton Wood

1-0 Record | 4.23 ERA | 20 Appearances (1 Start) | 27.2 Innings | 21 K | 11 BB | .270 Batting Avg Against

Wood was one of the youngest arms in a veteran-laden relief corps who saw additional opportunities at the tail end of conference play. He made two appearances in the CUSA tournament, allowing one hit in 2.2 innings pitched. His role will increase in 2020.

Blair Lewis

3-2 Record | 4.28 ERA | 18 Appearances | 40 Innings | 24 K | 8 BB | .291 Batting Avg Against

One of the grittiest performers on the team, Blair Lewis had a solid senior season. He isn’t one with lights out stuff, but he always threw strikes and forced opposing batters to deal with him. He posted three or more strikeouts three times this season, griding through the lineup as one of the most effective innings eaters Rice had at their disposal.

Garrett Gayle

0-3 Record | 5.53 ERA | 20 Appearances (1 Start) | 40.2 Innings | 47 K | 20 BB | .286 Batting Avg Against

A recent MLB Draft selection, Gayle had his moments in 2019. He competed well, but command issues hampered his ability to go more than two innings often before being hooked. He led all relievers with 20 walks, but also topped the unit in strikeouts. There’s a lot of potential with Gayle if he can keep his command.

Drake Greenwood

0-2 Record | 7.81 ERA | 16 Appearances (3 Start) | 27.2 Innings | 24 K | 19 BB | .308 Batting Avg Against

After transferring into the program, Greenwood’s role on the team wasn’t clearly defined. He auditioned as a midweek starter when the Owls had the occasional pair of midweek games, but never showed enough to stick in that role.

Ben Schragger

0-0 Record | 8.53 ERA | 7 Appearances | 6.1 Innings | 1 K | 9 BB | .292 Batting Avg Against

Schragger presented a different look for opposing batters with his sidearm motion. The potential for a change of pace never materialized for him due to an inability to throw strikes.

Jackson Tyner

0-3 Record | 9 ERA | 12 Appearances | 12 Innings | 13 K | 15 BB | .214 Batting Avg Against

Tyner’s power arm flashed on several occasions early in the season. His .214 batting average against was the best in the bullpen and he was the only reliever with a sub 10 hits per nine innings rate. It wasn’t easy to make hard contact against Tyner, but he too failed to consistently make his pitches in the strike zone.

Addison Moss

1-1 Record | 9.98 ERA | 7 Appearances (2 Start) | 15.1 Innings | 8 K | 7 BB | 0.379 Batting Avg Against

The supposed Saturday starter, Addison Moss was never healthy enough to assume his spot in the rotation. He made two starts and a handful of relief appearances before being shut down for the season.

Reserves

A.C. Plum | 0-0 Record | 9.82 ERA | 5 Appearances | 3.2 Innings | 5 K | 2 BB | .278 Batting Avg Against
Benjamin Content | 0-0 Record | 10.38 ERA | 6 Appearances | 4.1 Innings | 3 K | 6 BB | .316 Batting Avg Against
Brandon Deskins | 0-0 Record | 11.12 ERA | 7 Appearances | 5.2 Innings | 7 K | 9 BB | .292 Batting Avg Against
Zach Esquivel | 1-0 Record | 12 ERA | 5 Appearances | 3 Innings | 2 K | 7 BB | .333 Batting Avg Against
Blake Brogdon | 0-0 Record | 27 ERA | 1 Appearances | 1.1 Innings | 0 K | 1 BB | .625 Batting Avg Against

The remainder of the bullpen saw sparse duty, mostly during the nonconference slate. None of these guys threw more than six innings making it a challenge to truly evaluate their contribution to the team.

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Rice Football Stat Pack: Finding more pass catchers key to offensive equilibrium

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Rice football trusted a selected few to catch the football in 2018, something which must change if the Owls want to succeed in producing a balanced offense.

After discussing the balanced scheme Rice football would like to employ it seemed worth digging down another layer. A 50/50 run/pass split is around the neighborhood the offense will be aiming towards, but how does that ideal manifest itself on the field with the players Rice has on its roster?

Part of the reason Rice seemed to be more run-dominant than they were last year was the sheer volume of rushers. 16 different players registered at least one carry last season, second-most in Conference USA. A layer deeper still, 40 percent of all ballcarriers at Rice racked up at least 40 carries, the highest rate among all CUSA teams.

In a nutshell, not only did Rice rely on the run, they shared the load among several different backs. Contrasting that against the Rice passing game is where things get interesting. 10 players caught at least one pass for Rice last season, the fewest total in the conference and significantly fewer than the league average of 15.5 players.

Of those pass catchers, five caught 10 or more passes. The conference as a whole averaged 6.5 players with as many receptions per team. If your name wasn’t Austin Walter, Aaron Cephus or Austin Trammell, you probably weren’t getting the football.

When Rice ran the ball they had options. When they threw the ball, there were only a few guys who emerged as consistent receiving threats. The Owls’ ratio of 10+ carry players to 10+ reception players was the second-highest in the conference, trailing only FAU. The run/pass balance evened out in the long run, but the path to get there was wobbly.

In order to maintain the balance they’re aiming for, another legitimate pass-catching weapon (or two) need to emerge in 2019. JUCO transfer Bradley Rozner and a healthy Jonathan Sanchez could be the missing pieces the Owls need.

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Rice Football Stat Pack: Balanced offense remains Owls’ steady state

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The run-heavy mantra of Intellectual Brutality is more accommodating to the passing game than some might expect. Rice football was remarkably balanced on offense in 2018.

Coach Mike Bloomgren likes to use phrases likes to talk about his team imposing their will and playing with physicality. He’s an offensive line guy at heart who has a passion for winning in the trenches and running the football. That’s no secret, nor is it a secret he’d like to develop a stable of strong ball carriers at South Main.

But Rice might not be as one-dimensional as some would make them out to be.

Rice ran the ball on 54.5 percent of their plays last season, the fourth most run-heavy offense in Conference USA. The Owls were only the 55th run-dominant team in the nation, though, putting them slightly above the national average (around  53.5 percent). In fact, Rice was trended closely to being one of the most balanced offensive units in the country last season, something which should continue into 2019.

More Rice Football: Solving third down and optimizing success rate

The conference Rice competes in plays a huge role in their perception as an overwhelmingly run-first squad. The Owls are lightyears away from the triple-option teams, including their first 2019 opponent, Army, who runs the ball on 88.8 percent of their plays.

They’re also a ways away from many of their conference peers. North Texas (112), Louisiana Tech (113), UTSA (120) and Old Dominion (122) all ranked near the bottom quarter nationally in run percentage.

In the era of the spread offense, Rice looks different.  They’re going to use a full back and line up with a sixth offensive lineman from time to time. But they’ll throw the ball too, a facet of their offense poised to take a step forward in 2020 with a more experienced quarterback and several talented receivers. The Owls are going to run first, but don’t be shocked when they pass second.

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