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Rice Football: Making the case for AAC Membership

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When AAC football lost UConn to the Big East a potential opening appeared in the conference. What stands in the way of Rice football making the move?

The college sports world seems like it’s careening toward chaos. Programs have been cut. Football season is in doubt. No one is in charge and no one has definite answers regarding what the future will hold. That lack of clarity is time to ask questions. Among them, where does Rice football fit in the college football landscape?

Will Conference USA be the Owls’ forever home or could there be an opportunity to make the move to the ACC in the future?

What stands in the way?

Let’s start a rung higher with the Big 12. Money has been the reason the Big 12 hasn’t expanded since it’s stopgap measure to add TCU and West Virginia. Adding another team would mean splitting the pie in yet another slice. The same rationale is true for the AAC and other conferences as well.

Unless the new member is going to bring enough revenue to make each current member’s slice bigger, the new addition would “cost” the current members money. That’s especially concerning in the current economic climate.

But that’s assuming stability. If the makeup of the membership of the AAC changes further, there could be opportunities to lay claim to a spot. And if for any reason the Big 12 went through a change in its membership and began looking toward the AAC, the ensuing musical chairs that followed might benefit Rice.

What if, for instance, Houston finally got the call? Wouldn’t the AAC consider replenishing its ties to the Houston market by adding Rice?

Why it makes sense

When UConn left the AAC was left with 11 football members. The conference had an easy opportunity to pursue expansion at that time, but chose not to do so. The 11-member schedule scraps divisions, creating a modified round-robin style of scheduling, or at least that’s the purported plan.

Rice will surely tout its academic prestige as a reason for admission. The Owls would easily sit atop the conference in that regard. Adding that widely accepted asset with a strong narrative on the field could get the Owls a seat at the table when the madness starts.

What does Rice need to do now?

If Mike Bloomgren can take Rice football to a few consecutive bowl games and push for a C-USA title over the next couple of seasons, selling the story of an up-and-coming program in a top national market becomes a little easier. For Rice, winning will be the prerequisite for any vertical ascent.

Stability is no longer the norm, especially not for college sports. Changes to the conference landscapes are coming. Rice could do a lot to bolster their attractiveness by winning, and winning now. Strong academic and strong athletics sell. Rice has half of that covered and has done extremely well in other sports like volleyball and women’s basketball.

The Roost Podcast: Listen now to our Extended Offseason Interview Series

If football joins the ascent, Rice could have a chance. At this point, it would still be a sizable jump, but what seams feasible in today’s climate could change drastically from what made sense yesterday. For the time being, win.

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CFB Realignment: Evaluating merits of a Conference USA – Sun Belt merger

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What’s next in the lifespan of Conference USA? A long-rumored merger with the Sun Belt Conference has merits, but it’s far from a sure thing.

The COVID-19 pandemic has put college athletics travel costs, particularly in non-revenue sports, under the microscope. There are no “one-size fits all” solutions, but there are countless theories being circulated about what comes next.

One such concept is a Conference USA and Sun Belt merger. Is it feasible?

Why it makes sense

The geography of Conference USA and the Sun Belt conferences has a sizable overlap. Conference USA stretches from El Paso, TX (UTEP) to Virginia (Old Dominion). The Sun Belt runs as far west as San Marcos, TX (Texas State) and out to Coastal Carolina on the East Coast.

If cutting costs truly is a significant driver, splitting the two conferences down the middle would prevent UTEP from having to fly to West Virginia and App State from coming all the way to Texas for conference games. Just about any way you slice it, a merger of these two leagues drastically reduces the geographic footprint of each new conference.

The fan interest could see an uptick in the process. More regionalized scheduling would lead to more intra-state matchups. Seeing Louisiana Tech square off with ULM would spark more local interest than seeing the Bulldogs face Old Dominion. The same would be true for the Eastern contingent of schools. Stands would be packed if Charlotte and App State faced each other on a regular basis.

What stands in the way?

Television contracts are the obvious initial hurdle. There’s a reason that the decade long rumor of a Conference USA-Sun Belt merger has yet to materialize.

Conference USA’s TV deals span CBS Sports Network, ESPN3, Stadium, the NFL Network and various streaming arrangements. Most of those arrangements are set to expire by 2023. The Sun Belt is two years into an eight-year deal with ESPN.

Then there’s the inevitable bickering about who goes with who. What happens to teams like UAB and Troy who could arguably swing to either side of the geographic split? Both new conferences will surely want the Birmingham market.

The Roost Podcast: Listen now to our Extended Offseason Interview Series

Reaching a “fair” compromise that satiates 28 schools and four unique television partners seems … challenging, to say the least. That’s not to say it can’t happen, especially given these unprecedented times. But it does explain why a move that makes a lot of sense hasn’t yet gained meaningful traction.

And the people say…

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Conference USA Football 2020: Stop rate and three-and-out defense

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Conference USA football fielding an array of defenses in 2019. Which were the best at getting off the field by stop rate and three-and-out rate?

Recently published by The Athletic, stop rate is a useful tool for measuring college football defenses. Max Olson, who compiled the sat, defines stop rate as:

The percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. Every defense in college football has the same goal on every drive: Get a stop and get off the field. It’s the most basic measurement of whether a defense is successful. And the successful ones win a lot of games.

So what does that mean for Conference USA football? The league as a whole had four teams ranked inside the top 25 in stop rate nationally, including conference champion FAU. The Owls also ranked No. 1 in C-USA in three-and-out rate. The distribution from that point onward gets wide, quickly. Here’s a breakdown of each squad.

Two outliers stand out. Rice football finished 3-9, but boasted the seventh-best stop rate in C-USA and the fifth-best three-and-out rate. Every other team to finish in the top half of the conference in both metrics went bowling this past season. Defensive coordinator Brian Smith has made a tremendous impact at South Main so far, and the Owls have room to grow. They return almost every member of their two-deep on defense in 2020.

The second outlier is Charlotte. The 49ers gave up a lot of points last season — 32.4 per game to be exact — but found a way to get to a bowl game in their first year under Will Healy. Replacing defensive end Alex Highsmith will be a challenge next year, as will backfilling the running back spot behind Benny Lemay. There are some questions, bu things are headed in the right direction.

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Conference USA Football: Takeaways from early 2020 schedule

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The 2020 Conference USA football schedule has been announced. Here are five thoughts from the early look at the upcoming season’s games.

1. Statement opportunity on opening night

Florida Atlantic’s first game under new head coach Willie Taggart has the potential to be national news. Minnesota will be coming off a Top 10 finish this year and will be looking to keep things rolling after their 11-win season. This game is scheduled for Thursday night, September 3, presumably on national television. C-USA needs to do better against Power 5 programs. This will be one of their best chances in 2020.

2. No more double byes

Having two off weekends last year was a scheduling quirk that was rather nice. It lengthened out the schedule (more football!) and gave teams an extra chance to rest up and get well. Most C-USA squads were able to avoid playing more than five or six consecutive games. 2020 marks the return to one off week, with some drawing rather inconvenient timing. Marshall and Southern Miss are off in Week 10, with only three games left on their schedules.

3. The first conference game comes early

Southern Miss hosts Louisiana Tech in Week 2 in the first C-USA game of the season. Both teams will have division title aspirations, making the game pretty important in spite of the early date. Old Dominion hosts FIU in Week 3 and Middle Tennessee in Week 4 before the bulk of the conference games get underway in Week 5.

4. UAB’s has a case for the most favorable schedule

The Blazers get New Mexico State, Alabama A&M, South Alabama and Miami (which was shutout by Louisiana Tech in their bowl game) in nonconference play. Their most challenging road trip will be Halloween night against Louisiana Tech with most of their toughest games coming at home. They’ll host WKU and Southern Miss. On paper, things set up pretty nicely for UAB.

5. Marshall has another tough road

In addition to a nonconference slate which includes East Carolina, Pitt and Boise State, the remainder of Marshall’s schedule is filled with quirks. After hosting Boise State (Sep. 26) and Rice (Oct. 3), they don’t play consecutive home games until Nov. 14 and Nov. 21. Their crossover opponents  (Louisiana Tech and Rice) are far from the easiest pair they could have drawn. As if that wasn’t all, they play Boise State, Rice, WKU, Louisiana Tech and Florida Atlantic in a five-game stretch. Oof.

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Conference USA Football 2019: Bowl Updates and Championship Recap

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FAU has won the 2019 Conference USA football championship. Now eight teams venture on to bowl season, with the first game approaching soon.

Team Opponent Bowl Time Date
Charlotte Buffalo Maker’s Wanted Bahamas Bowl Fri. Dec. 20 1:00 p.m.
FAU* SMU Cheribundi Boca Raton Bowl Sat. Dec. 21 2:30 p.m.
FIU Arkansas St Camellia Bowl Sat. Dec. 21 4:30 p.m.
UAB Appalachian St R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Sat. Dec. 21 8:00 p.m.
Marshall UCF Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl Mon. Dec. 23 1:30 p.m.
LA Tech Miami Walk-on’s Independence Bowl Thr. Dec. 26 3:00 p.m.
WKU Western Michigan SERVPRO First Responder Bowl Mon. Dec. 30 11:30 a.m.
So. Miss Tulane Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl Sat. Jan. 4 10:30 a.m.
*Won Conference USA Football Championship Game

Conference USA Championship Week 15 results – Standings

The Conference USA Football Championship was a total non-event. FAU jumped out in front of UAB quickly, turning a 14-3 first quarter lead into an overwhelming 35-6 halftime advantage. All the while the Ole Miss football Twitter account was tweeting out gifs in regards to the not-so-secret future of one Lane Kiffin. That ended up being more entertaining than the game itself.

Updates from elsewhere in C-USA

Time runs out for Frank Wilson and Bobby Wilder

Now former head coach Frank Wilson was fired from UTSA following the season. Shortly after, former Old Dominion head coach Bobby Wilder elected to resign from the program. At the time, those were the only Conference USA football head coaching jobs to open this offseason.

What’s next for some of C-USA’s best?

For the past few seasons, Bill Clark and Lane Kiffin have represented the best coaching Conference USA has to offer. Rumors of both coaches potentially being on the move surfaced during the lead up to the conference championship game. Kiffin made the leap to the SEC. Clark is staying put, for now, but the coaching carousel hasn’t stopped spinning just yet.

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