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“There’s actually a book”: How analytics is changing Rice Football

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Rice football has amped up its aggressive decision-making this season. Leaning on analytics and going by “the book” has served them well.

Analytics is a hot-button topic in the world of football today. From the NFL to the college game, everyone has an opinion on what the “computers” say to do in any given situation. Those estimations have made it into broadcasts beyond any individual commentator advising, “You gotta go for it here,” as the teams trot onto the field.

“There’s actually a book,” Rice football head coach Mike Bloomgren explained, going on to detail how he approaches such situations in live games. “Whether it’s going for it [on fourth down] or going for two, there are options the book gives you, and there’s sometimes it makes a lot of sense to me. I appreciate the mathematical data behind it because it makes me feel better about my gut decision.”

As the discussion around the subject grows, Bloomgren maintains that he’s kept the same philosophy on analytics. “I haven’t had a proverbial shift in terms of my beliefs,” he said. The caveat? “Where our team is has allowed me to do some of the things I want to do, maybe that’s a better way to say it.”

Bloomgren’s aggressive decision-making is intertwined with the team’s success this season. There are examples in every game the Owls’ have played, win or lose, but their most recent outing contained one pivotal moment that summed up where this team and its coach stand on rolling the dice.

More: TJ McMahon providing stability for Rice football at QB (Premium)

Let’s set the scene. It’s fourth-and-one from the UAB 2-yard line. Rice is trailing 27-24 with just over nine minutes remaining in the contest. The Owls’ ultra-successful short-yardage offense was just stonewalled on third-and-one on the previous play.

Bloomgren has a decision here: Kick the gimme field goal and tie the game. Go for it and risk no points at all.

Given how well the defense had played, an argument for either side would have been plausible. Still, it wouldn’t have surprised many watching on to see the Owls take the sure-fire points, tie the game and hope for one more shot with the ball following a defensive stop. It doesn’t seem like too much of a stretch to suggest Rice teams of the recent past would have probably opted for that approach. This one didn’t. Bloomgren didn’t. He chose the aggressive option.

Rice ran the ball again, converting on fourth down to move the chains. Following a false start penalty, quarterback TJ McMahon hit Dean Connors in the flat for the go-ahead touchdown which made the score 28-24. Rice would win by that exact margin.

Bloomgren did say “the book” would have recommended going for it all the way up until fourth and four. In that scenario, one in which the Owls’ short-yardage offense wouldn’t have been a real option, Bloomgren conceded he might have taken the points. But when it comes to those high-percentage plays that require physicality in the trenches, Bloomgren was unwavering.

“It’s who we are,” Bloomgren said when asked about the decision. “We’re gonna win games on fourth and one on both sides of the ball. It’s what we’re built on. It’s what we’re built for. I would have been cheating kids if we hadn’t gone for it.”

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As Bloomgren joked earlier in the week, “When it works you made the right call.” But even if it hadn’t succeeded, UAB would have taken over from their own one-yard line and been forced to go the full length of the field to score. Those odds aren’t very good in a neutral situation, much less so on the road against a Rice defense that had started to lock things down.

And thus weighs the delicate decision that decides the fate of real games. Art versus science. Numbers versus gut. Rice football versus everyone.

And that might be the real truth that describes the Owls’ newfound appetite for risk this season. Bloomgren says he’s “tried to be aggressive for our team in games that we needed it” and added that he’s become “more comfortable with that mindset right now.”

“I think our defense is so good,” he elaborated. “We have some much trust in our quarterback and everybody to make it work that its easier to go with what the book says.”

If appearances are indicative of reality to any degree, Rice football has embraced “the book” more than they ever have before. They have the best team they’ve had in a long time and are 3-2 for the first time since the won the season they won the Conference USA Championship in 2013. Leave it to the scholars to dust off history and reinvigorate it. The 2022 Owls hope to ride that inspiration to an equally compelling season.

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Rice Football 2022: NFL Owls Week 4 Roundup

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Rice Football is well represented on 2022 NFL rosters. Here’s the latest from the NFL Owls in action in Week 4.

There are former Rice football players scattered across the NFL. Stay tuned each week for their game results and notables from each player.

Team NFL Owl(s) Week 4 Result Week 5
Denver Broncos Calvin Anderson (OL) at Raiders L, 32-23 vs Colts (TNF)
Detroit Lions Jack Fox (P) vs Seahawks L, 48-45 at Patriots
Indianapolis Colts Kylen Granson (TE) vs Titans L, 24-17 vs Broncos (TNF)
LA Chargers Bryce Callahan (DB)
Christian Covington (DL)		 at Texans W, 34-24 at Browns
Pittsburgh Steelers Chris Boswell (PK) vs Jets L, 24-20 at Bills
Seattle Seahawks Myles Adams (DL) at Lions W, 48-45 at Saints
Tampa Bay Bucs Nick Leverett (OL) vs Chiefs L, 41-31 vs Falcons

Offense

Calvin Anderson – OT, Broncos

Anderson saw back to special teams action again on Sunday after making a brief offensive cameo the week prior. He saw four special teams snaps against the Raiders.

Kylen Gransen – TE, Colts

Gransen set a career-high in receiving yards (62) and receptions (four) on Sunday against the Titans. He’s now registered at least two catches in each of the Colts’ games so far this season.

Nick Leverett – OT, Buccaneers

Leverett was active but did not play for the Bucs in their Week 4 loss to the Chiefs.

Defense

Myles Adams – DL, Seahawks

After making his season debut in Week 3, Adams was inactive in Week 4. He’s only been activated once so far this season.

Bryce Callahan – CB, Chargers

Callahan had three tackles and one pass defended in the Chargers’ Week 4 win over the Texans, but it was his fourth quarter game-sealing interception that won the day. It was Callahan’s first pick in the city of Houston in his career.

Christian Covington – DL, Chargers

Covington was active for the first time this season on Sunday against the Texans. He racked up two tackles in the Chargers’ win.

Special Teams

Jack Fox – P, Lions

In addition to two punts for 97 yards, Fox showcased his arm on Sunday, converting a fourth down on a fake punt play. It was his third completed pass of his pro career, with each of the previous two completions going for first downs as well.

Chris Boswell – K, Steelers

Boswell was called upon four times against the Jets on Sunday, converting two fielding goals, including a mammoth kick from 59-yards out as well as two extra points.

More Owls in the NFL

From practice squads to current free agents, there are other Owls on the cusp of returning to active rosters. Find more detail on current contractual agreements and former Rice football players waiting for their next opportunity here.

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How five UAB snapshots tell a Rice football story

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From a blowout to back-to-back wins, the rise of Rice football parallels the Owls’ progression against the UAB Blazers, one of C-USA’s best programs.

Rice football has faced UAB five times since head coach Mike Bloomgren assumed leadership of the program prior to the 2018 season. The Owls are 2-3 against the Blazers in that time, but the progression demonstrated in that quintet of contests speaks volumes as to just how far this program has come in that time.

To fully understand what made Saturday’s upset win so significant, one must look back in time. Bloomgren certainly has. When meeting with the media following a 28-24 victory that lifted the Owls to 3-2 on the season, Bloomgren was quick to mention how this burgeoning rivalry started.

“They beat the life out of us,” Bloomgren said of that 2018 contest, one that UAB won 42-0 in Houston on the same field where Rice had just avenged themselves.

Bloomgren has been quick to compliment the Blazers in his remarks over the years. Even after the win, he referred to UAB as “the standard in our conference.”

Then came the follow-up question: if UAB is the standard, what does it say about a Rice program that has now taken down that giant twice in successive seasons?

“It means that we’ve taken some real steps in this football program, and I couldn’t be more proud of these guys,” Bloomgren said between smiles. “I’m incredibly proud of them, to beat them two years in a row means everything.”

The progression

Following the 2018 shellacking, Rice cut the margin significantly the following season, falling to UAB in Birmingham by a final score of 35-20 in a weather-delayed, rain-soaked slugfest. Rice led 7-0 after the first quarter before UAB hit on three long touchdown plays in that contest which proved to be the difference. It was another loss, but Rice had shown a pulse.

In 2020 the teams played their closest game yet. Rice led 13-7 at halftime, another positive step, but the defense could not stop the UAB rushing attack and the offense was held out of the endzone in the second half, losing starting quarterback Jovoni Johnson to injury along the way before falling 21-16.

From a 42-point defeat to a 15-point defeat to a 6-point defeat. The deltas kept dwindling until they flipped for the first time in 2021. To win that game, Rice had to be absolutely perfect. They were.

Gabriel Taylor forced a fumble on the very first play of the game. Juma Otovanio provided a pivotal 50-yard kick return, the Owls’ longest of the season. After completing one of his first four passes, quarterback Wiley Green finished the game by completing 16 of his next 18 attempts for 200 yards and a career-high three touchdowns.

Rice was as close to perfect as they could have dreamed to be and UAB still had a Hail Mary attempt at the buzzer to win the game. It fell incomplete. Rice won.

Defensive end Ikenna Enechukwu participated in that thrilling win and it was in his mind on Saturday when the Owls posted another victory over the Blazers.

“I feel like we’ve been able to play with them for at least the past maybe four years honestly and this is just another time like last year where we put all the pieces together,” Enechukwu said. “We were able to fight for four quarters and really dig in deep during the fourth quarter to come up with a victory.”

Far from perfect

While Rice football did technically play four quarters, they’d rather not write home about most of the first half. The Owls’ opening scoring drive accounted for 75 yards. Rice ended the first half with 75 total yards of offense, making absolutely zero progress on that side of the ball while allowing 17 straight points on defense.

“We played about as bad as we could in the first half,” Bloomgren admitted.

That’s part of what made the win so uplifting. Last year Rice football has to be perfect to squeak by a very good UAB team. This year the Blazers were picked to finish second in the conference in the Conference USA preason poll. Rice was tabbed as the No. 10 team in an 11-team field. And by the Owls’ own admission, they did not play their best brand of football on Saturday, and they still won.

“Who the heck picked us tenth?” Bloomgren joked in the aftermath. “I don’t know if you’re a betting man, but the lines have been off the last few weeks too.” Double-digit under dogs in each of their last contests, Rice has covered all three times and won outright twice, also dispatching Louisiana at home.

On Saturday against UAB, though, it wasn’t their underdog status that propelled them to victory. Rice won because Ari Broussard dominated short-yardage situations, scoring his seventh and eighth rushing touchdowns of the season. He’s currently tied for fourth in the nation in rushing scores and all of his touchdowns have come from inside the five-yard line.

Rice won because Treshawn Chamberlain, following a big hit by George Nyakwol that put the ball on the turf, was the only man on the field to hurry to the football, scooping it up for the go-ahead touchdown. The remaining 21 players on the field assumed it was an incomplete pass. Chamberlain recognized it as a fumble and made the play.

More: Postgame reactions — Rice football upsets UAB, again

Rice won because quarterback TJ McMahon, now 4-0 in games he’s finished at Rice Stadium, has the presence of mind to go down on a play action call rather than force the ball down field. His decision burned 40 more seconds of valuable clock time and made the UAB offense work at a frantic pace.

Rice won because its defense — which allowed UAB to rack up 360 total yards of offense — posted three sacks in the final sixty seconds, including the game-winner by Joshua Pearcy as the clock expired.

Rice won because they took advantage of 12 UAB penalties for 116 yards, ranging from holding to roughing the passer to taunting to everything in between. Flags were flying all night, with penalties to both teams. The Owls endured.

Rice won because they’re a fundamentally different team than the squad that was blasted in Birmingham in 2018. And a different team from the one that couldn’t make the key plays down the stretch in 2020. And from the program which needed perfection to overcome the odds last season.

Not done yet

The 2022 Rice football team had already won with a dominant showing this season. Against UAB, Rice won ugly. And if Rice can beat one of Conference USA’s premier programs without posting a single yard of offense from the second drive until halftime and while allowing 17 consecutive points on defense… watch out.

“The sky’s the limit for this program,” longtime running back Cameron Montgomery said following the game.

And if anyone should have a true sense of the trajectory of this program, it would be Montgomery. One of only a handful of players still on campus that was recruited by former coach David Bailiff, Montgomery remembers every step it took along the way for Rice football to get to this place. He’s not taking his eyes off the prize.

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“We’ll just keep taking it one week at a time. I’d love to take it day by day. I would love for my guys to have a great night tonight, celebrate this win, come back tomorrow, look at the film with a critical eye and wake up on Monday, recovered,” he said.

“And we’ll just keep chopping away at that wood, chopping away at that wood until we knock that tree down.”

If the past few seasons were spent sharpening the ax, Rice football has come out of the gates this season swinging it freely. UAB might not be the last giant (tree) to be felled.

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Rice Football 2022: Owls rally late, knock off UAB at home

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Rice Football took a few punches but weathered the storm, knocking off UAB at home in their conference opener by a final score of 28-24.

It wasn’t pretty for a full four quarters, but when the dust settled, Rice football was 3-2. For the second consecutive season, the Owls took down the Blazers, this time doing the deed at home. The Owls are 1-0 in conference play with plenty of momentum heading into the bye. Here are a few immediate reactions from the game:

Start strong…. check

As good as Rice football has been in recent weeks, their opening quarters have been rather disappointing. Entering this game UAB had outscored their opponents 42-0 in the first quarter until Rice marched down the field and let Ari Broussard punch one in on fourth-and-goal from the one.

The score was the first Rice opening quarter touchdown since the McNeese game and the first opening drive score of any kind since the opening game against USC. It capped off an 11-play, 75-yard drive including a pivotal third down conversion by TJ McMahon’s legs.

The Roost Podcast: Stay tuned for the game recap this week – Rice football vs UAB

Not to be outdone by the offense, the Rice defense opened with an equal level of intensity. Gabriel Taylor read the eyes of UAB quarter Dylan Hopkins and jumped a route to the flats for his second interception of the season. Early on, everything was coming up Owls.

Things got bumpy, fast

Unfortunately, Rice football could not sustain that gusto for much longer. Broussard fumbled the ball on the three-yard line, handing UAB an extremely short field that led to an equalizing score. Then Broussard was flagged for a hold on special teams which negated a 56-yard punt and handed the Blazers 28 extra yards of free field position.

After leading 7-0, Rice allowed 17 straight points to the Blazers, not reversing the run until the second half. In the second quarter with UAB backed up in their own endzone, the Rice defense allowed UAB to connect on a 71-yard reception. The usually fundamentally sound Owls drew 10 penalties for 75 yards on the night, bailing on the Blazers on more than one occasion.

Over the past few seasons, Rice football has slowly risen their quality of play from one good quarter a game to two or even three solid quarters. There really hasn’t been a truly elite four-quarter showing from this team yet this season, although they’ve played well enough to win despite their inconsistencies in most of their games.

On Saturday, Rice was great in the first quarter and great in the third. The second was bad. The fourth was excellent. And in the end, that’s all that mattered.

What’s the answer for the offensive line?

Trey Phillippi posted a commendable performance in his first career start against Houston last week. For the most part, the offensive line was able to contend with the UH pressure, but the game-sealing fumble might not have happened had the Owls gotten just a little more protection from their five men up front.

It didn’t really feel like any individual was at fault. UAB was just better in the trenches and it put the entirety of the Owls’ offensive gameplan under duress from their second drive onward.

After the strong opening drive, Rice had trouble in the trenches. The Owls averaged 3.0 yards per carry but unlike in prior games, few booming pass plays were to assuage concerns of the running game was struggling. TJ McMahon was under duress all night long, and while he did make some big plays, he wasn’t able to carry the offense on his own.

With no answers as to when former starting guard Braedon Nutter will return, it’s looking like Rice is going to have figure it out with the guys that they have. Now, it’s entirely possible they’ve already faced the best defensive fronts they’ll play for the rest of their season. Less pressure and more continuity will help whoever Rice lines up on the offensive line. But regardless, there has to be some strides made up front.

Adapt, adapt adapt

One of the biggest criticisms of Rice football in the past few years has been its offensive philosophy. Run, run and throw on third down became an almost predictable cadence at times. Offensive coordinator Marques Tuiasosopo was brought in to address those concerns and collectively, both he, Bloomgren and the offensive staff has done a 180.

It was hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel for the Rice offense going into halftime. Then Rice got creative with the football. Luke McCaffrey got some carries on sweeps. They moved the chains on a unique pattern to him out of the backfield. They sprinkled in Cam Montgomery for a big play. With the game on the line, they dialed up a play action call on third and seven with McMahon wisely electing to keep it.

Faced with a stagnant attack, Rice had to do something … and they did. In fact, the Owls have made some impressive second half adjustments throughout all of their non-USC games so far this season. They’ve figured something out on offense. And if the defense continues to be effective (with some turnovers sprinkled in) this team’s ceiling remains very high.

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Rice Football 2022: UAB Insider gives his take on Owls vs Blazers

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Rice Football is set for a big game this weekend against the UAB Blazers. UAB beat reporter Evan Dudley from AL.com tell us what to expect.

Longtime friend of the site Evan Dudley was kind enough to stop by and answer a few questions about the upcoming matchup between Rice Football and UAB. The answers below should shed some light on the Owls’ upcoming opponent.

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