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Rice Football 2021 Game Preview: Season opener vs Arkansas

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Rice Football is set to open its 2021 season on Saturday at Arkansas. How to watch, key stats, x-factor picks and more.

The 2021 Rice Football season opens this coming Saturday against Arkansas. The quarterback battle remains unsettled, but expectations for the Owls’ 2021 season remain high.

The Owls’ first opponent, Arkansas, also finds itself riding a wave of increasing expectation. The Razorbacks showed progress under Sam Pittman last fall, proving to be a tough out in the SEC despite their first-year coach at the helm. Getting back to a bowl game is part of the marching orders in 2021, and that starts, they believe, with a home tilt with Rice.

Broadcast Info

Kickoff time | 1:00 PM CT
Venue | Razorback Stadium – Fayetteville, AR
TV | ESPN+ / SEC+ (Streaming)
Radio | Sports Map 94.1 (FM) / Stretch Internet (Online)

Audio Preview

We’ll preview Rice football vs Arkansas on this week’s episode of The Roost Podcast which will be released later in the week. Find us on the podcast page or wherever you like to listen to podcasts. (And consider leaving us a 5-star review while you’re at it.) If you haven’t yet, consider checking out our extended offseason interviews with folks like Phil Steele, Shehan Jeyarajah, and notable Owls like Christian Covington, Jack Fox, Austin Trammell, Aston Walter and more!

Sizing up the contenders

Rice football is kicking off its season on Labor Day Weekend, more than a month ahead on the calendar of when they opened their 2020 season. Last fall the Owls played their first game on October 24, just barely getting two games in before the calendar turned to November. This time around they’ll open against another team playing their first game, rather than their seventh.

Last season went better for Arkansas than in years past, but the Hogs have had trouble in their most recent outings with Conference USA opponents. They fell to Western Kentucky 45-19 in 2019 and lost to North Texas 44-17 in 2018. That was under a different coaching staff, but the losses still sting.

Series History

All Time | Arkansas leads 35-29-3
Last Five | Arkansas leads 4-1
Last Meeting | Road 1991, Arkansas won 20-0

Rice Stat Notables (Returning 2020 Leaders)

Passing | McCaffrey (at Nebraska) – 48/76 (63.2 percent), 466 yards, 1 TD, 6 INT
Rushing | Griffin – 72 carries, 249 yards (3.5 yards per carry)
Receiving | Myers – 24 receptions, 209 yards (8.7 yards per reception), 1 TD / Bailey – 23 receptions, 276 yards (12.0 yds/rec), 2 TD
Tackles | Garcia- 28 / Chamberlain – 27 / Montero – 24
Pass Breakups/Interceptions | Bird – 3 PBU, Five returning players tied with 1 INT

Arkansas Stat Notables (Returning 2020 Leaders)

Passing | Jefferson – 20/41 (48.8 percent), 295 yards passing, 3 TD, 0 INT
Rushing | Smith – 134 carries, 710 yards (5.3 yards per carry), 5 TD
Receiving | Burks – 51 receptions, 820 yards (6.1 yards per reception), 7 TD / Smith – 22 receptions, 159 yards (7.2 yds/rec), 1 TD
Tackles | Morgan – 110 / Pool – 101 / Catalon – 99
Interceptions/Pass Breakups | Morgan, Pool, Brown – 5 PBU / Catalon, Clark – 3 INT

Arkansas X-Factor | Will the front seven turn the corner?

Arkansas was, for the most part, unable to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks last season. Their 14 sacks in the span of 10 games were the fewest of any SEC team and nine of those sacks came in their first four games. The more they put on tape, the less pressure they were able to generate.

That’s going to have to change if Arkansas is going contend with the rigors of an SEC schedule, but it’s equally imperative against the Owls, too. Rice hasn’t been particularly effective on third and long under Mike Bloomgren and has seen drives stall out when the sticks get too far away. If Arkansas can put Rice behind the chains early, they’ll force them off schedule.

There’s optimism that the Rice passing game is going to be better in 2021 than in the recent past, but that doesn’t change the Owls’ commitment to running the football. More pressure will throw those plans out of whack. Arkansas needs to find a way to make that happen.

Rice X-Factor | Generate explosive plays

Rice averaged 1.3 gains of 30+ yards per game in 2020, near the bottom of Conference USA. The Arkansas defense allowed 1.9 such explosive plays last fall, one of the better marks in the SEC. If Rice ends this game anywhere in that ballpark when it comes to field-flipping type plays, they’ll be in trouble.

The defense proved it could win games on its own in 2020, accounting for five turnovers and a defensive score in the shutout win against Marshall. But that’s more likely to be the exception than the rule moving forward. Rice is going to have to help its defense by sprinkling in some big offensive plays, too.

Whether it’s via the legs of one of Luke McCaffrey, their stable of running backs or a big catch from a suddenly deep receiving corps, Rice needs to find ways to shorten drives and maximize every offensive possession. If they can get a couple of big plays in each half they’ll force Arkansas onto their heels, in turn, enabling the Rice defense to feast.

Pick ‘Em Contest (Subscribers only)

Make sure you submit your entry for The Roost’s weekly pick’em challenge. There will be swag and prizes for the top finishers at the end of the season. Choose an answer to each of the six questions below and comment on this post on the Patreon page to enter. It’s that easy.

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Need More?

The Roost’s 2021 Rice Football Season Preview has FIVE pages dedicated to every opponent the Owls face. There are depth charts, important new arrivals and positional breakdowns for every team in Conference USA sourced from local beat writers and sources on the ground who cover these teams every day. It’s the most thorough C-USA publication on the market.

One Final Thing

There hasn’t been any beating around the bush when it comes to discussing expectations at South Main. Rice football expects to be playing in a bowl game at the end of this season, which makes the nonconference slate all the more important. The schedule is brutal (at Arkansas, vs Houston, at Texas, vs Texas Southern), but postseason rules won’t be as forgiving in 2021.

We’re going to learn a lot about this team over the next four weeks, starting with the opener against Arkansas. Be patient. The schedule will get easier and the talent on this team will shine through.

With that quick caveat, it’s also worth noting oddsmakers give Rice a better chance of beating Arkansas (the Owls are currently 20-point underdogs) than they did to beat Marhsall (Rice entered that game as 24-point underdogs). Math isn’t deciding the outcome of this game, but the “experts” are giving Rice a fighting chance. Sometimes, that’s all you need.

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Rice Football 2021 Fall Camp Report: QB battle continues, young faces stand out

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Rice football has begun prep work for its first game, but the quarterback position remains up in the air. Here’s the latest regarding who has the edge and happenings from practice this week.

It’s been a busy week on South Main. We got some clarity on various position battles that were still underway entering last Saturday’s scrimmage, but we did not get a definitive answer at the quarterback spot, and it’s not sounding like a declaration is forthcoming this week. This update has some direct comments from head coach Mike Bloomgren and others on the state of that battle, a potential position switch and a handful of younger players that have stood out.

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For those checking in for the first time, or those returning, a quick programming note. Practice reports are reserved for our subscribers. If you want updates on the quarterback battle, camp standouts, injuries and more, this is your go-to source. You can get access to all practice notes, recruiting updates and special features like this one when you subscribe on Patreon today.

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Why don’t the polls/experts believe in Rice Football? – August 2021 Patreon Q&A

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Rice football has done an excellent job on the recruiting front in recent years, but most publications still pick them to finish at the bottom of C-USA West. Why?

If you’ve flipped through any preseason magazines or predictions of late, you’ve probably noticed a consistent theme with where Rice football is predicted to finish among their Conference USA West peers. If Rice has truly raised the talent level inside its program as aggressively as recruiting services believe they have, why aren’t the prognosticators following suit and giving the Owls a bump in their projections?

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For those checking in for the first time, or those returning, a quick programming note. Q&A’s are reserved for our subscribers. Have questions? You can get those answered and get access to all practice notes, recruiting updates and special features like this one when you subscribe on Patreon today.

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Rice Football 2021 Fall Camp Report: Owls gain clarity in scrimmage No. 2

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All eyes were on the quarterbacks, but the offense as a whole proved to be appointment viewing in the second and final Rice football scrimmage of fall camp.

In total, Rice football played 28 drives in their second scrimmage of fall camp. Half of those were full field and all served to showcase the quarterback battle between Wiley Green and Luke McCaffrey. There appeared to be some separation on that front and there was certainly a slew of other individual highlights along the way. We’ll detail all of that and more in the scrimmage report below.

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For those checking in for the first time, or those returning, a quick programming note. Practice reports are reserved for our subscribers. If you want updates on the quarterback battle, camp standouts, injuries and more, this is your go-to source. You can get access to all practice notes, recruiting updates and special features like this one when you subscribe on Patreon today.

Off the top, it’s worth noting a couple of macro-level observations from the offense several of which could have serious ramifications on how the 2021 Rice football season plays out.

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Rice Football 2021 Fall Camp Report: Breaking down the QB Battle

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Rice football has a quarterback battle on its hands between Wiley Green and newcomer Luke McCaffrey. Here’s where things stand halfway through fall camp.

Through 10 practices, the battle for the 2021 Rice football starting quarterback position remains in a dead heat. For the most part, Wiley Green will get the first reps with the starters, ceding to Luke McCaffrey for the second portion of any particular set of drills. They’re 1A and 1B thus far. After talking with several coaches and players, here’s where I believe things stand right now.

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For those checking in for the first time, or those returning, a quick programming note. Practice reports are reserved for our subscribers. If you want updates on the quarterback battle, camp standouts, injuries and more, this is your go-to source. You can get access to all practice notes, recruiting updates and special features like this one when you subscribe on Patreon today.

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Timeline

Rice football kicks off against Arkansas on Sept. 4, less than three weeks away. With one remaining scrimmage between the Owls and their first game, one would think landing on a starting quarterback would be near the top of the priority list for head coach Mike Bloomgren and his staff. While that might be true, Bloomgren has made it crystal clear he’s not going to rush the process.

“I don’t feel a need to call a winner anytime soon,” he said following the first scrimmage on Saturday. “I’d rather it not drag into game week and I’d rather it not drag into the third week [of camp], if we can help it.”

The Roost Pod: Phil Steele breaks down Rice football and Conference USA

In an ideal world, picking a starter following the second scrimmage, slated for this Saturday, August 21, would pass Bloomgren’s final “rather not” test, before the third week of practices kick off next Monday. That said, Bloomgren has waited much longer to tab his starting quarterback in the past, so a Saturday decision is by no means written in stone. Still, one would hope a frontrunner emerges by then.

Given that backdrop, here’s how the battle currently stacks up:

Scheme understanding: Edge – Wiley Green

As has been the case in years past, Wiley Green’s comprehension of the system is head and shoulders above the rest of the quarterback room. One assistant coach told me this week Green “knows [the scheme] just as well as the coaches do,” and therefore, “he should feel more comfortable here at practice.”

That’s pretty much where Bloomgren left off following the scrimmage on Saturday. He described Green as “incredibly comfortable in the system” continuing on to say of McCaffrey, “there’s things that Luke does really natural,” hinting more at athletic ability than any schematic principals.

It doesn’t take too much conjecture to draw the conclusion that the battle has reached a similar place to where it’s been in the past. In each of the past two seasons, Green has battled with an incoming transfer for the starting job.

Green initially beat out Tom Stewart in 2019 before injury cost him the starting job for several weeks. Green was only a sophomore at that time and Stewart had never played a down of D1 football, transferring from Harvard during the offseason. When Mike Collins arrived last summer, his arm talent gave him the edge over Green’s scheme understanding. Once again, raw talent seems to be pitted against schematic understanding.

Athletic ability: Edge – Luke McCaffrey

The strongest argument in McCaffrey’s cap is, by far, his athletic talents. During his time at Nebraska, he showcased the ability to literally run circles around Power 5, blue-chip defensive players. He’s rushed for 530 yards so far in his collegiate career and thrown for 608. There’s no question he’s one of the most dynamic ball carriers the Owls have at their disposal. The question is, can he understand the offense and execute it?

From the first few weeks of practice, McCaffrey has shown a tremendous amount of poise with the football. Yes, he’s a natural runner, but he doesn’t look to run at the first sign of trouble. Time and time again he’s found ways to scramble out of the pocket, buy a few more seconds and rifle the ball to an open receiver. He did this on multiple occasions during the first scrimmage.

When he does throw the ball, he’s been accurate. Despite any narratives suggesting he’s purely a rushing threat, McCaffrey’s  64,8 career completion percentage would rank above every other returning passer in Conference USA. He’s demonstrated good ball placement and plenty of zip during practice. From a passing perspective, he has more than enough

One assistant summed it up like this, “[McCaffrey] allows you to be, maybe a bit more creative,” he said. “You can never have too much talent.” Another doubled-down on his rushing prowess, bluntly declaring “Obviously, [McCaffrey] can do more things with his legs, which is always a bonus.”

Where things stand right now

In response to a question about a specific play in Saturday’s scrimmage where McCaffrey beat Treshawn Chamberlain to the edge for a first down, Bloomgren offered this comment. On the surface, it’s very complimentary of McCaffrey and his ability, but digging deeper, it also gives some color as to where the competition could be right now.

“I think Luke’s a special runner,” Bloomgren said, “And the thing we know is we know is Luke can be a special quarterback and that’s what we’re continuing to work towards is getting him comfortable in the West Coast offense where we can execute all of it.”

If Bloomgren believes McCaffrey is already a special runner and that he “can be” a special quarterback, that begs the question of what the gap is between McCaffrey reaching that level, something Bloomgren answers almost immediately in the same sentence: “getting him comfortable in the West Coast offense where he can execute all of it.”

So it’s entirely possible, if not likely, Rice football finds itself in a place it’s been in several fall camps under Bloomgren. Green is the incumbent, of sorts, who knows the x’s and o’s like a book, but the incoming challenger possesses some level of athleticism or quarterback ability he doesn’t.

If the past years have been any indicator, when, not if, the incoming talent has mastered enough to lead the team seems the most likely outcome. What does that mean for Game 1 against Arkansas? We’ll have to wait and see. I’d lean McCaffrey ever so slightly, but the race remains tight today.

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