The source for Rice sports news

Rice Football Stat Pack: Analyzing the Owls against the spread

By

Rice football was a good bet for part of 2018, but a late-season surge had the Owls outperforming the expectations from those in Vegas.

For gamblers, not all teams are created equal. Last year’s 2018 Rice football squad went 2-11 in the regular season, making a bet against the Owls a lucrative one as the team underwent an extensive rebuild. Still, Rice made the oddsmakers in Vegas work. The Owls were 7-6 against the spread, covering in five of their last six games.

Let’s give Rice a pass through the first half of the season as they worked through a new scheme with new players and new coaches. The second half of the season provides evidence Rice began to outperform expectations of the oddsmakers who, supposedly, know the sport best.

In Case You Missed It: The Roost is one-year-old

Rice won their final game of the season against Old Dominion outright, despite being 7.5-point dogs. Other than that, Rice stayed within large margins against FIU, North Texas, Louisiana Tech and LSU — and they did it with a revolving door at the quarterback position as their passers suffered from a myriad of unfortunate injuries.

Over the second half of the season, Rice went 1-5 on the field and 5-1 against the spread. On a high level, that means the Owls consistently beat the oddsmakers’ expectations. As the saying goes, they didn’t build the casinos in the desert by chance.

Vegas has proven to be pretty good at gauging the difference between two teams on any given Saturday. They’re not often wrong and when they are, it usually isn’t by all that much. Here’s how Rice faired down the stretch against the spread.

Date Opponent Spread Result Difference
10/20 Florida Intl 23 Rice -19 4
10/27 North Texas 30 Rice -24 6
11/3 TX El Paso 2 Rice -8 -6
11/10 LA Tech 24 Rice -15 9
11/17 LSU 41.5 Rice -32 9.5
11/24 Old Dominion 7.5 Rice 14 21.5

In 2019 Rice football will work on moving from covering the spread to winning on the field, but these trends should spur some optimism they’re heading in the right direction.

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts

Rice Footbal: 2020 Wide receiver Andrew Mason commits to Owls

By

The 2020 Rice Football recruiting class picked up another important addition. Wide receiver Andrew Mason has committed to the Owls.

Adding explosiveness has been near the top of the list in terms of priorities for Rice in the incoming recruiting classes. The Owls bolstered their receiving corps in 2019 with speedsters Jake Bailey and Zane Knipe.

The Owls knew they could never have too much speed, though. They continued on that theme with their first wide receiver commitment of the 2020 class, Andrew Mason.

Rice Football, Rice Football Recruiting

Mason started drawing interest from Rice this spring right around the time his offer list began growing. The Brentwood, TN receiver has picked up a dozen offers over the past few months, adding Rice in May. It was clear from the start he was near the top of the pecking order for the Owls who fought off Army, Yale and others to earn his commitment.

He was on campus for a visit on Monday following a string of recruiting camps and visits that have made up a busy summer for the Owls. His interactions with the staff, the location of campus and the totality of the entire experience proved to be enough for him to make his pledge.

Mason is the first commitment for the Owls since running back Khalan Griffin came aboard in May. If things continue to track well on the recruiting trail there might be a few more additions before the summer is through.

Don’t let his star-rating fool you, Mason is a game-changer. He’ll be a dynamic playmaker for Rice as soon as he gets on the field. Incorporating someone with his brand of quickness and ability to extend plays will add a wrinkle the Owls have been missing.

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts

Rice Football: Owls must continue to make red zone trips count

By

The red zone was kind to Rice Football in 2018. The Owls will look to build on that success by creating addition scoring opportunities in the fall.

Rice scored on 85.7 percent of their red zone opportunities last season, the 46th best rate in the country and the third best rate in Conference USA. That’s a night and day difference from their 74.1 percent scoring rate inside the 20-yard line in 2017.

While the rate of red zone scoring increased year over year, the impact of that efficiency was muted by a lack of opportunity. Rice averaged 2.0 red zone scores per game, a total which ranked 121st in the nation and 13th in Conference USA.

Those two numbers combined suggest the margin for error in the red zone is extremely small. If Rice is only going to get into that prime field position two to three times per game, leaving without points or settling for field goals, is going to play into the hands of the Owls’ opponents.

The Rice Football offense desires to predicate itself on controlling the clock and playing quality defense. While other teams the Owls face are going to try to move fast and run chunks of plays, Rice is going to err on the methodical side. For that reason, the total number of red zone opportunities will be at a premium for Rice compared to some of their more pass-happy foes.

More: Owls poised for better luck in the turnover department in 2019

The net difference in red zone scoring opportunities in itself isn’t an all-powerful statistic. The 10-3 Kentucky Wildcats scored in the red zone 2.1 times per game last season while the 4-8 Old Dominion Monarchs scored in the red zone 3.5 times per game. Red zone scoring isn’t the objective, making those trips count is.

Rice excelled in the latter last year. In 2019 they’ll look to build on that success and turn their red zone field goals into touchdowns.

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts

Rice Football Stat Pack: Turnover margin due for a reversal

By

Rice football is due for a change of fortune with turnovers. After four years of a negative turnover margin, the ball should bounce more favorably in 2019.

For the fourth year in a row, Rice football finished with a negative turnover margin. The Owls handle on the football was inconsistent, committing 23 turnovers over the course of 13 games. The defense did their part, recovering 11 fumbles and snagging eight interceptions. The Owls’ 19 turnovers forced ranked in the middle of the pack among their conference peers. The 23 lost was third from the most.

As unfortunate as the Owls’ turnover woes were in 2018, it could be one of the most correctable facets of the team’s statistical profile. While talent and execution play a significant role in turnover production, it remains one of the most random events in football. Luck, in the form of favorable bounces and fortunate positioning play as much of a role in forcing turnovers (and committing them) as anything else.

More: Finding more effective quarterback play a focal point of 2019

Over the past five seasons, only one Conference USA team has posted a negative turnover margin in each year: Southern Miss. Three of those seasons the Golden Eagles finished with a turnover margin of -1. Conversely, Louisiana Tech is the only school to post a positive turnover margin five years in a row. They were +1 in two of those seasons.

UTEP, who had the worst margin in CUSA last season at -17, posted a +9 mark as recently as 2014. That would have been tied for the best margin in the conference in 2018. Turnovers are fluky, and that’s something which should swing back in the Owls favor in 2019.

Five straight years on either side of the ledger are uncommon. The odds will level out.

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts

Rice Football Stat Pack: Quarterback efficiency a must for offensive growth

By

The quarterback is the most important player on the field, making quarterback rating something Rice Football must strive to improve in 2019.

It might seem too simplistic, but good offenses typically have good quarterbacks. Moving the ball doesn’t require an extremely talented quarterback, but efficiency from that position tends to impact a given football team more than any other player on the field.

Quarterback rating is a statistic meant to boil down a passer’s total production profile into one number. In general a quarterback with a high quarterback rating: throws more touchdowns than interceptions and completes a large portion of his passes. The precise formula, for those interested, is this:

(8.4 x [Passing Yards] + 330 x [Touchdowns Thrown] – 200 x [Interceptions Thrown]  + 100 x [Completions] ) / [Attempts]

That pulls together five important passing statistics into one number. It’s not the most powerful number in isolation — it doesn’t mean much to the average person that Shawn Stankavage had a quarterback rating of 113.5 last season. It is powerful in the right context.

Stankavage, the Owls’ starting quarterback for the majority of the season, had the 10th best quarterback rating in Conference USA. Given the number of teams in the conference, that made his production profile near the bottom of his competitors. The overall offensive stats bore out a similar result. Rice ranked 12th in scoring offense and 13th in passing offense last season.

More: Taking a closer look at yards per play

If you look at the conference’s top-rated passers, the hierarchy of teams begins to take shape. FIU’s James Morgan led the way with a 157.6 rating. Brent Stockstill of MTSU was second at 150.7. Following him were Mason Fine of North Texas (149.4) and Jack Abraham of Southern Miss (147.4). Those four teams combined to go 23-9 in conference play.

It’s too simplistic to equate a high quarterback rating to winning football. But the connection between the two is more meaningful than not.

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts