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Rice Baseball: What do the Owls need to do to clinch a CUSA Tournament berth?

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Rice baseball is working to secure a Conference USA Baseball Tournament berth. Here’s what they need to do to lock down their spot in the postseason.

In two weekends the Conference USA Baseball Tournament field will be set. Rice hopes to be one of the eight squads to make the trip to Biloxi, Mississippi, but they have some work to do before they can rest easy. With six conference games remaining, Rice is in the running, mathematically, for the full gamut of finishes in the conference standings. The Owls are 12-12, good for fifth place in the 12 team race. Here are a four possible outcomes for the next two weeks

Scenario 1 – Rice wins the CUSA Regular season championship (2% chance)

What it would take – Rice finishes 6-0 with plenty of help

A 6-0 finish with dreadful weeks from Southern Miss and FAU could skyrocket Rice into first place. That would give the Owls 18 wins, tied for the most in the league with Southern Miss. It would also clinch included the tiebreaker, an assumed sweep of the Golden Eagles in the Owls’ last home series of 2019. Rice swept a good Louisiana Tech team at home, but this would require an extra dose of good fortune.

Scenario 2 – Rice earns a Top 4 seed (28% chance)

What it would take – Rice wins final two series, WKU or LaTech lose two series

This scenario would require a strong finish with additional help, but it seems within reason. Rice winning their final two series would elevate the team to 16 wins. WKU is 14-9-1 and Louisiana Tech is 13-11. If WKU sweeps Louisiana Tech, Rice would hold the tiebreaker and thus the No. 4 seed. If Louisiana Tech beats WKU, Rice would need one of those two schools to lose out. Louisiana Tech closes at FIU. WKU is home against Old Dominion.

Scenario 3 – Rice earns a Bottom 4 seed (50% chance)

What it would take – Rice splits their next six games

Losing either of the next two series makes the odds of postseason play dicey. Rice is one win up of Marshall (11-12) and Old Dominion (11-13) and two ahead of UTSA (10-13) and Middle Tennessee (10-14). Rice needs to finish ahead of one of those teams to make the field, assuming 9-win Charlotte or FIU don’t surprisingly catch fire over the final two weeks. If Rice can manage a 3-3 finish they’re more than likely safe.

Scenario 3 – Rice misses CUSA Tournament (20% chance)

What it would take – Rice wins two or fewer games

Anything fewer than 15 wins opens the door for the rest of the conference to make a move. A 14-16 finish could push Rice to the bottom of the conference, falling even with lowly UAB who already has 16 losses entering the final two weekends. One win would leave them at the mercy of a potential tiebreaker to UTSA, MTSU, Charlotte or FIU, all of which have a series win over the Owls this season.

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Rice Baseball: Owls go for season sweep vs Lamar on Tuesday

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In the midst of a rough stretch, Rice baseball hopes for a rebound win in their second midweek bout with Lamar this season.

Rice had another forgettable weekend on the road, falling in three straight games to Western Kentucky. The Owls missed an opportunity to climb higher in the conference race, but will take every opportunity they can get to find their rhythm as the regular season winds down. Perhaps playing a familiar opponent will give Rice a needed confidence boost.

Lamar gave Rice a scare earlier in the season, running out to a 5-1 lead at Reckling Park. The Owls remained calm, answering the Cardinals’ rally with an 11-0 run to put the game on ice. Here’s what to expect in the final installment between these two teams this year:

When and Where

Projected pitching matchup –  Drake Greenwood vs Erik Key

Kel Bordwine, who had been the go-to man in midweek games for Rice this season, has seemingly done enough to warrant his inclusion in the leaky Rice bullpen. He appeared in Sunday’s series finale against Western Kentucky, making a midweek start on Tuesday unlikely. That leaves Drake Greenwood, one of the other most prominent midweek hands, to toe the rubber. Greenwood is 0-2 on the season with a 9.27 ERA.

Facing him will be Lamar righty Erik Key, owner of an 8.59 ERA with no official decisions in six appearances. He’s thrown 6.1 innings this season with three strikeouts and 10 walks. In their first meeting with Rice this season, Lamar used six pitchers while Rice used four. This will likely be another night with many pitching changes for both sides.

Names to know from the plate

First baseman Anthony Quirion and center fielder Reese Durand did the majority of the damage for Lamar against Rice earlier this season. Those two combined for five hits, two runs and four RBI. As good as both have been this season, they both rank outside the top six hitters for the Cardinals.

Second baseman Logan Berlof owns a team-best .356 batting average paired with a gaudy .420 on base percentage. The most dangerous of them all, though, is JC Correa. The brother of Astros’ shortstop Carlos, the younger Correa is working to make his brother proud. JC has 20 extra base hits this season, eight of which have come via home runs.

ON DECK | vs Southern Miss (Fri-Sun)

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CUSA Baseball: Race for the top is closer than ever

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With two weeks remaining before the CUSA Baseball Tournament, Southern Miss and FAU are neck and neck at the top of the standings. Can anyone else come close?

Notable weekend results

1. Rice sees surge stopped by sweep (more)

In the midst of their longest winning streak of the year, Rice baseball had swept back to back CUSA series entering their road set with Western Kentucky. Within striking distance of the top teams, Rice fell flat, dropping all three contests to WKU. It’s now the Hilltoppers who hold sole possession of third place in the standings trailing Southern Miss and FAU.

2. FAU comes close to an emphatic sweep of Southern Miss

Southern Miss could have put the race for the No. 1 seed to bed with a series win over FAU. Instead of locking things down, the Eagles find themselves perilously close with the Owls, who took two of three over the weekend. The lone win for Southern Miss came in walk-off fashion, escaping with a ninth-inning single to break a 7-7 tie. The 1-seed is officially a two-team race.

3. Mother nature spoils Marshall/UTSA series

Both Marshall and UTSA are close to the cut line to make the conference tournament. Rough weather over the weekend forced the cancellation of the conclusion of the series, split 1-1. Marshall is 11-12. UTSA is 10-13. Both teams needed the chance at another win, so the lack of a rubber game is a particularly problematic ending from Huntington, WV.

Standings

Team CUSA Overall
1 Southern Miss 18-6 31-15
2 FAU 17-7 32-15
3 WKU 14-9-1 23-22-1
4 Louisiana Tech 13-11 29-19
5 Rice 12-12 21-27
6 Marshall 11-12 24-23
7 Old Dominion 11-13 29-18
8 UTSA 10-13 22-25
9 MTSU 10-14 17-30
10 Charlotte 9-14-1 18-27-1
11 FIU 9-15 20-27
12 UAB 8-16 22-26

 

Upcoming series of note

1. FAU at UTSA

FAU wants to make their final push for the No. 1 overall seed. UTSA is looking for enough wins to make the CUSA field. There will be a lot at stake in San Antonio next weekend.

2. Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech

Sitting at No. 3 and No. 4 in the conference standings the Hilltoppers and Bulldogs can push themselves into a secure position with a series win.

3. Old Dominion and Marshall

This might be an elimination series. The loser will enter the final weekend below .500 in conference play and could need some help to make the CUSA Tournament field.

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Rice Baseball: Sweep by WKU a headscratcher for Owls

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Rice baseball came back to earth over the weekend. The Owls saw their six-game CUSA win streak snapped by a sweep at the hands of Western Kentucky.

Rice swept each of their last two Conference USA series and was reasonably confident entering a three-game tilt with Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers were right in the middle of the pack along with the Owls, but had proven themselves to be beatable along the way. Not only was Rice unable to take the series, they weren’t able to win a game. Here’s a rundown of the tough weekend and three closing thoughts on the regrettable string of defeats.

FRIDAY (GAME 1) | WKU 6 – Rice 3

Things started out as good as Rice could have hoped for in the series opener. Matt Canterino was lights out on the mound, striking out 11 batters in seven innings. Western Kentucky was able to rough him up a bit in his final inning, but after allowing four straight hits, Canterino survived the scare and left the game in position to earn the win.

Counting the two runs given up by Canterino, Rice still held a 3-2 advantage. A pair of RBI singles, one by Trei Cruz in the first and another by Aaron Beaulaurier in the second plus a wild pitch had put Rice ahead early. Then they turned to the bullpen for six outs.

One error and three hits allowed Western Kentucky to break things open against Kendal Jeffries who had been the Owls’ most trustworthy bullpen arm. After leading for seven innings, Rice saw the result flipped in less than 30 minutes, losing 6-3.

FRIDAY (GAME 2) | WKU 9 – Rice 5

A similar story materialized in the second half of the Friday doubleheader. Evan Kravetz threw five innings, striking out nine and allowing three runs. He’d had better days, but his solid outing was not the Owls’ undoing. It was the bullpen, again. This time Blair Lewis took the loss.

Lewis relieved Kravetz and retired two of the first three batters he faced. An error, followed by a walk and a hit by pitch put the fate of the game in jeopardy. With the bases loaded, WKU slugger Jake Sanford strode to the plate an uncorked a grand slam over the right-field fence. Rice would never recover, dropping the series.

SUNDAY | WKU 6 – Rice 4

Unlike the prior two games, Rice did not strike first in the series finale. WKU scratched across runs in the first, second and third innings, taking a 4-1 lead into the middle innings. Jackson Parthasarathy wouldn’t make it out of the fifth inning, being relieved in favor of Garrett Gayle after surrendering four runs in the first three innings.

With Gayle on the mound, the Owls traded runs. Following an RBI in the fifth by WKU’s Stanford, Cade Edwards doubled and Dominic Cox hit a sac fly to cut the home team’s advantage to 5-3. The squads each tacked on a single run over the remainder of the contest, with Rice falling short for the fourth consecutive game.

TAKEAWAYS | WKU wins series 3-0

1. Who can Bragga trust in the pen?

As recently as a week ago, Kendal Jeffries, Garrett Gayle and Blair Lewis were the Owls’ most trustworthy relief options. All three of them had regrettably rough outings this week, and were responsible, at least to some degree, for Rice losses.

Rice doesn’t have the depth behind them to make a quick fix. Ben Schragger, Jackson Tyner and Ben Content have had their chances – none have been able to consistently get outs. With Addison Moss on the mend, Rice is out of options.

Kel Bordwine’s strong start against Houston on Wednesday will put him in contention for relief minutes in the coming weeks. He got the final two outs on Sunday. Dalton Wood could be a candidate after his outing this week, too. The fact that few answers have been found this late into the season is frustrating. It’s an ever-present reminder the depth on this team has some ways to go before it’s back to the standard this program has enjoyed over the past several decades.

2. It’s time to go home

With the meaningful exception of the Old Dominion series, Rice has not been a good team away from home. The Owls swept the Monarchs, but are 6-11  away from Reckling Park with one series win in 2019. That .353 winning percentage contrasts sharply with the Owls’ home record of 13-15, a .464 winning percentage.

Rice can finish better than .500 at home if they sweep Southern Miss in their final home series. That’s a tall task, but equally as challenging as sweeping Louisiana Tech at home, a feat they achieved earlier this season. Rice has won three home series, playing comprehensively better baseball in Houston than anywhere else. They don’t get to bring the same dirt with them to the postseason, so they’d best take advantage of their own field while they can.

3. This team is running out of time to get in rhythm

On paper, a series against Western Kentucky’s porous pitching staff was exactly what this offense needed. After settling in on a starting nine, the Rice offense was beginning to up their production at the plate. They were getting hits. They just needed to convert those into runs. Rice scored some runs against Western Kentucky, but it wasn’t enough to overcome a shaky bullpen.

The same roster that swept Louisiana Tech at home crumbled on the road against a team squarely in the middle of the pack. Now Rice finds themselves further down the standings than they’d like. The Owls are one bad weekend away from finding themselves on the outside of the conference tournament looking in.

Which team shows up at home against Southern Miss next weekend? The answer to that question might determine whether or not Rice is playing baseball deep into May. As thing stands, they’ll enter their last home series in fifth place.

ON DECK | at Lamar (Tues), vs Southern Miss (Fri-Sun)

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Rice Baseball: Owls making the most of established starting lineup

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With only a few games remaining in the season, Rice baseball has settled in on a starting lineup, one which has brought much-needed consistency to the offense.

Head coach Matt Bragga flip-flopped the lineup on a nightly basis at the beginning of the season. He admitted then he’d rather stick with the same nine guys and not make as many adjustments, but lamented it wouldn’t happen until they were good enough as a team to solidify a starting nine. For him, the end goal will always be consistency. “I think consistency is good in whatever you’re doing, as long as it’s going well,” Bragga affirmed.

With the end of the regular season in view, Bragga’s squad has found those nine. The same position players have started every game of the Owls’ six-game winning streak and two of their three subsequent losses — Braden Comeaux, Bradley Gneiting, Trei Cruz, Andrew Dunlap, Cade Edwards, Justin Collins, Dominic Cox, Brandt Frazier and Aaron Beaulaurier. The lone exception was a Khevin Brewer start at designated hitter in the second half of Friday’s double header against WKU.

That core group, with a few pinch hitters scattered in, has paved the way for the Owls’ longest winning streak of the season. No longer is the weight of the offense resting on any one player’s shoulders. Every night someone different gets a big hit. It took a few months to get here, but the offense is beginning to feel balanced.

“There’s not a lot of options,” Bragga admitted, “so when you find a group of nine you’re very apt to stay with that nine.”

For the most part, that nine has got the job done. They’ve won six of their last nine games with the final game of the WKU series awaiting Sunday. Salvaging one more CUSA win would have a significant on the conference race. Bragga’s mindset remains clear. “We need to do better.” he said. That much is true. Now they have the right pieces in place to do it.

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