The source for Rice sports news

Conference USA Football: Debunking the returning starters stat

By

Returning starters are important, but don’t let that be the only indicator of success in Conference USA football this season.

Conference USA football media days are right around the corner. Every coach will stand in front of the media and offer some clarity into some of the narratives that have been surrounding their programs for the last few months. 2018 will be put to bed as everyone turns their collective focus to 2019, the season to come.

With the new year comes a familiar stat thrown out with increasing regularity: returning starters. Fans and media alike would love to boil down their expectations of next season into a digestible number. Returning starters has become a placeholder of sorts for that aggregate view. But it might be one of the more troubling data points to process.

For example, FIU and Western Kentucky sit atop Conference USA with 19 returning starters apiece. FIU won nine games last year and came close to playing for the conference championship. Western Kentucky won three games, finishing 2-6 in conference play.

The Hilltoppers have a new coach in the mix, but is it reasonable to assume they’ll be on par with FIU because the same number of guys will be taking the majority of the snaps? Not likely.

Likewise, Rice and Marshall each have six returning starters on defense but the Thundering Herd allowed 100 yards fewer per game than the Owls did last season. And for that matter, it’s entirely within the realm of possibility some of the Owls newcomers who will be starters in 2019 will be better than those who left the program last fall.

Team Offense Defense Special Teams Total
FIU 8 8 3 19
WKU 10 6 3 19
Southern Miss 9 6 3 18
North Texas 8 6 3 17
Marshall 8 6 2 16
UAB 8 5 3 16
Charlotte 5 7 3 15
Florida Atlantic 7 6 2 15
Louisiana Tech 8 5 2 15
Rice 7 6 1 14
UTEP 7 4 3 14
Middle Tennessee 4 6 3 13
Old Dominion 4 5 3 12
UTSA 6 4 2 12

If there is any commonality between the returning starters across Conference USA and the rest of college football, it’s the lack of consistency. Returning starters doesn’t matter as much as returning high-caliber players. That’s more difficult to measure, and thus we’re stuck with a more vague, less helpful statistic. Returning starters are good; returning playmakers are better.

Find out more about the top returning playmakers in Conference USA by grabbing a copy of our 2019 Conference USA Preview.

Buy Now
Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts

Rice Football Recruiting: How the Owls are hacking the 2020 rankings

By

The 2020 Rice Football Recruiting class is finding top-flight players before major services discover them. How the Owls’ are winning recruiting.

In the world of college football recruiting, stars matter. The rating assigned by 247 Sports and other ratings services are talking points for fans around the country whenever a new player commits (or thinks about committing) to their school of choice. While recruiting players with higher star ratings is generally a positive sign, Rice football has found a loophole in the process.

247 can’t rate every recruit in the country. There are tens of thousands of aspiring college football recruits and only so many hours in the day. Some larger programs can throw their conference affiliation or national brand at the blue-chip players to lure them to school. Rice has found a hack of their own.

The 2020 Rice Football recruiting class features 14 commits including 11 three-star players. Of those 11, six of them were unranked at the time they chose to commit to the Owls. That means the coaching staff was able to identify premium talent before the recruiting services.

Prior to his commitment, cornerback Sean Fresch was unrated. Now he’s the highest-rated recruit in the Owls’ 2020 class. Cornerback Devon Gunter didn’t have a star rating either. He’s the fourth-highest ranked recruit in the class. Lineman Matt Latos, tight end Nate Kamper, offensive lineman Trey Phillippi and wide receiver Andrew Mason have similar stories. From zero stars to three stars, overnight.

Available Now: 2019 Rice Football Season Preview 

At the end of the day, stars don’t win football games, players do. But the 2020 Rice Football recruiting class is stocked with high-level talent, largely because the coaching staff is ahead of the curve. When you know the answer before the rest of the nation does, you’re probably on the right track.

That’s why Rice has a top-three class in Conference USA. And they’re not done yet.

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts

Rice Baseball: MLB Owls riding high entering 2019 All-Star break

By

Rice Baseball has five active players in the major leagues. Here’s how the current MLB Owls are doing at the 2019 All-Star break.

JT Chargois – Los Angeles Dodgers

Chargois made eight appearances before the All-Star break. He owns a 1-0 record through 8.2 innings pitched with 16 strikeouts and three walks. He struck out seven of the last batters he’s faced across two appearances in the month of July. Those terrific outings lowered his WHIP to a career-best 0.923.

Tyler Duffey – Minnesota Twins

Duffey was used sparingly through the first several weeks of the 2019 season before a May 11 doubleheader thrust him back amongst the bullpen regulars for the Minnesota Twins. Over the course of 25 games, Duffey sports a 3.49 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 28.1 innings. He’s walked only six batters. His 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings is a career best.

Available Now: 2019 Rice Football Season Preview 

Jon Duplantier – Arizona Diamondbacks

Duplantier made his MLB debut on April 1, earning the save in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ win over the San Diego Padres. His first career start came almost two months later on May 31 against the New York Mets. He went five innings, striking out four with two walks and three runs allowed, earning a no-decision. Following two more appearances, he was placed on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation. His line at the end of the first half of the season is a respectable 4.32 ERA in 25 innings with 24 strikeouts and nine walks.

Brock Holt – Boston Red Sox

A hamstring injury slowed Holt in the latter portion of June, but it couldn’t cool his red-hot start to the summer. Holt is hitting .317 entering the All-Star break, but a blazing .384 since June 1. He’s racked up 28 hits and just 15 strikeouts over that period, collecting 14 RBI in the process. He’s never hit better than .281 over the course of a season, the mark he reached in his first full year in Boston in 2014.

Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals

Name an All-Star for the first time in his career, Rendon will not play in the Midsummer Classic, opting instead to rest up and nurse some minor injuries before the second half of the season begins. Even though he won’t get the chance to show off his skills in Cleveland, he’s more than proven himself worthy of the recognition.

Rendon is in his third consecutive season as a .300 hitter and is on pace for 160+ hits, 40+ doubles and 80+ RBI. Achieving those milestones would mark the fourth consecutive year he’d done so. This is a contract year for Rendon, making the timing of his steadfast productive all the more impactful.

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts

2019 Rice Football Season Preview by The Roost

By

 

The staff of The Roost is pleased to announce the release of the 2019 Rice Football Season Preview, a 143-page digital magazine detailing everything you could imagine about the Owls’ upcoming season.

This preview is the culmination of months of research, interviews and analysis. Consider it your one-stop-shop as you prepare for the Owls’ 2019 season.

Available as a downloadable PDF for on-the-go access, this preview contains the following:

1. A breakdown of every position group on the team

Who are the favorites to start entering fall camp? What sort of production should you expect from returning starters? Which of the incoming transfer players should make their mark the quickest? Answers to all of those questions are included, as well as notes on every single player on the 102-man roster.

2. An exclusive interview with head coach Mike Bloomgren

We sat down with coach to get his honest evaluation of where the Rice football program is right now and how he views the progress the team is making as they approach 2019. He’s sticking to a process, one which he remains confident will bring success to South Main.

3. Previews of each 2019 opponent and all 14 CUSA Teams

Supported by local beat writers and experts who cover each team, this section has a wealth of knowledge about every CUSA Team and all the Owls’ 2019 opponents.

Rice fans will want to familiarize themselves with the teams they’ll be facing this year. Get to know which players each squad will have to replace, which newcomers could make noise in 2019 and what outstanding questions those in the know have about their respective squads.

4. A complete 2019 Conference USA Football Preview

Available separately to purchase, everyone who purchases the 2019 Rice Football Season Preview will also get The Roost’s 2019 Conference USA Football Preview. We made our picks for preseason honors, top games to watch in 2019 and a closer look at how every team in the conference stacks up.

Don’t need any more convincing? Get a copy for yourself today

Buy Now

 

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts

Rice Football: Assessing the Owls’ Year 2 coaches through history

By

It takes some time to build a program. How have the various Rice football coaches faired in their second year at South Main?

After a two-win season in 2018, Rice football coach Mike Bloomgren enters 2019 with a renewed vigor. The Owls went through the growing pains expected with a coaching change last season, rebuilding as they went. That season was all about installing the right schemes and educating the younger players. 2019 marks a transition from training from what most coaches call “Year Zero” into the “real world” of sorts.

Officially in his second year of command, Bloomgren joins the ranks of 14 Rice coaches who stayed at the school for multiple seasons. Eight of those coaches won had a better winning percentage in Year 2. Six fell short.

Interestingly enough, the best Year 2 season in school history came in 2008 with David Bailiff at the helm. Rice won 10 games that season, capping things off with a Texas Bowl win over Western Michigan. Bailiff’s squad was coming off a 3-9 start the year before, a hair better than Bloomgren’s 2-11. Fortunately for Bailiff, he had the benefit of senior quarterback Chase Clement as well as pass catchers Jarrett Dillard and James Casey.

Other coaches had more work to do in Year 2. Jimmy Kitts (8-3 in 1935), Jack Meagher (8-4 in 1930) and Jess Neely (6-3-1 in 1941) are the only other Rice coaches to finish with a winning record in their second season.

Coach Year W L T Pct
David Bailiff 2008 10 3 0 77%
Jimmy Kitts 1935 8 3 0 73%
Jack Meagher 1930 8 4 0 67%
Jess Neely 1941 6 3 1 60%
Fred Goldsmith 1990 5 6 0 45%
Al Conover 1973 5 6 0 45%
Phillip Arbuckle 1915 5 3 0 63%
John Heisman 1925 4 4 1 44%
Watson Brown 1985 3 8 0 27%
Ken Hatfield 1995 2 8 1 18%
Jerry Berndt 1987 2 9 0 18%
Ray Alborn 1979 1 10 0 9%
Homer Rice 1977 1 10 0 9%
Bo Hagan 1968 0 9 1 0%

Ultimately the successes (or failures) of Bloomgren’s predecessors have a negligible impact on his team’s outlook for 2019. For the most part, those that have come before him have taken a few seasons to get things up and running. Legendary coach Jess Neely’s best season came in Year 10. Time will tell where Bloomgren fits amongst the ranks.

Subscribe on Patreon for exclusive Rice football recruiting updates, practice notes and more.

Recent Posts