Rice football draws another postseason bout with Texas State, this time in the Armed Forces Bowl. How to watch, key stats, x-factor picks and more.
Both Rice football and Texas State entered the final week of the regular season one win shy of securing bowl eligibility. Texas State got that all-important sixth win, defeating South Alabama at home, while Rice reached the postseason as beneficiaries of their APR Score. Regardless of the path, the two Texas foes get their rematch from their recent First Responder Bowl Meeting in 2023. Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between Rice and Texas State.
Kickoff time | 12:00 PM
Venue | Amon G. Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, TX
TV | ESPN (Viewing Guide)
Radio | Varsity Radio App (Online)
Sizing up the Contenders
These programs reached the postseason in very different ways. Rice football knew it would be a challenging year one and enters this game with excitement after scrapping their way to five wins, two more than oddsmakers projected them to amass before the season. There’s a hunger to win — Rice hasn’t won a bowl game since 2014 — but getting to this point has already made this season a success.
More: Undersized and Undeterred – Quinton Jackson’s Journey to Rice Football Star
Texas State enters from the opposite direction. One of the preseason favorites win the Sun Belt, the Bobcats won their first two games before a five-game losing streak nearly knocked them out of bowl contention by mid-November. They rallied to reach the postseason, but it would be naive to paint the season as a success given the degree to which this team underwhelmed against those expectations.
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Last Time Out
Make sure you check out The Roost Podcast every week this season as we review the Owls’ most recent game, breaking down the key moments, decisions and their impact on the outlook of the program moving forward.
Series History
All Time | Texas State leads, 3-2
Last Five | Texas State leads, 3-2
Last Meeting | First Responder’s Bowl 2023, Texas State won, 45-21
Rice Football Stat Notables
Passing | Jenkins – 119/172 (69.2 percent), 1025 yards, 9TD, 2 INT
Rushing | Jackson – 164 carries, 811 yards (4.9 yards per carry), 6 TD / Jenkins – 151 carries, 531 yards (3.5 yards per carry) – 5 TD / Hardeman – 78 carries, 319 yards (4.1 yards per carry), 2 TD
Receiving | Turner – 53 receptions, 374 yards (7.1 yds/rec) / Dickmann – 37 receptions, 323 yards (8.7 yds/rec), 3 TD
Tackles | Awe – 101 / Morris – 82 / Williams – 67
Pass Breakups | Porter – 8 / Crump (Suspended) – 6 / Williams – 5
Interceptions | Kane, Stevenson, Wyatt – 1
Texas State Stat Notables
Passing | Jackson – 234/328 (71.3 percent), 3050 yards, 18 TD, 7 INT
Rushing | Pare – 199 carries, 1022 yards (5.1 yds/car), 11 TD / Jackson – 160 carries, 692 yards (4.3 yds/car), 16 TD / Burrell – 91 carries, 590 yards (6.5 yds/car), 3 TD
Receiving | Sparks – 80 receptions, 1113 yards (13.9 yds/rec), 9 TD / Dawn Jr. – 54 receptions, 931 yards (17.2 yds/rec), 2 TD / Pare – 36 receptions, 306 yards (8.5 yds/rec), 2 TD
Tackles | Payne – 102 / Nolan – 75 / Crosby – 61
Pass Breakups | Rios – 4 / Crosby, Atwood – 3/ Nine tied with two each
Interceptions | Rios – 3 / Five tied with one each
Texas State X-Factor | Hit Some Home Runs
No team in the country does the big play quite like Texas State. The Bobcats finished the regular season with 17 plays of 50+ yards or more, two more than any other team in the nation. They also ranked second in 40+ yard plays (24) and seventh in 30+ yard plays (36). What’s most interesting, though, is that they only ranked 58th in plays of 10+ yards. Simply put, this team doesn’t hit doubles or triples. Just home runs.
Rice has proven susceptible to the big play and it’s been their ultimate undoing on multiple occasions this season. Some extra rest for the Owls’ defensive backs should help, but if Texas State is able to jump out to a quick lead with a big play or two, things could get dangerous in a hurry for a Rice team that isn’t built to win from behind.
Rice X-Factor | Stay on Schedule
For almost a complete quarter in their penultimate game of the regular season, Rice football put their winning formula on full display. The Owls jumped out to a 14-0 lead against a ranked North Texas squad with its high-flying offense by controlling the ball, executing their run game and preventing the Mean Green’s offensive stars from hurting them by keeping them on the sideline.
Unfortunately for Rice in that game, the remaining three quarters weren’t nearly as kind. The defensive woes that plagued the Owls all season would prove to be their eventual undoing, but had the Owls been able to offer any resistance on that side of the ball, the dominant edge in possession they maintained might have been just enough.
A few turnovers would go a long way, but more possessions won’t win Rice football this game in itself. The key will be manufacturing extended possessions, preferably ones which finish in the end zone.
Injury Report (Subscribers only)
One Final Thing
As he watched the first few weeks of bowl games, Abell noticed some teams seemed particularly motivated to play their extra games and some did not. He vowed the Owls would be ready to play and seemed genuinely focused on returning to Houston with a victory.
“I think [a win] would be a great, great way to leave a legacy for these seniors, to wrap up 2025 and really to set the standard for what we want [2026] and the future to look like,” he said. “I think the team will be incredibly proud if they can secure a victory for Rice University and Rice Football and to bring so much joy back to our alumni base who fought so hard to see a better future for our program.”
The win would be the Owls’ first bowl victory since 2014 and mark the first time Rice reached six victories since 2023. That team was 6-6 and lost the bowl game before sliding to 4-8 the following season, which would eventually result in a coaching change. That came in the sixth year of Mike Bloomgren’s tenure at Rice. That Abell’s team has the chance to one-up it in Year One is nothing short of extraordinary.
To some extent, then, Rice football is playing with house money. Beneficiaries of the APR assist in reaching the postseason; the game itself is an unexpected bonus. But if time with Abell has taught me anything, this man isn’t one to waste opportunities. This game is just that. An extra chance to propel the program forward and keep up a pace that has already exceeded expectations.
