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Conference USA Football 2021: Stop rate and defensive performance

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Conference USA football had some good defenses and some very bad ones in 2021. Which ones found ways to get off the field the most?

Recently published by The Athletic, stop rate is a useful tool for measuring college football defenses. Max Olson, who compiled the sat, defines stop rate as:

“a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo game than yards per game or even points per game.”

Although in previous years Olson had married stop rate with three-and-out rate, this year he’s placed points per drive data alongside the focal data point. Combined together, it paints a pretty compelling case when it comes to defining what elite-level defense looked like in college football this year. But what does it mean for Conference USA football, specifically?

Observations

You won’t find either UTSA or Western Kentucky in the Top 5 of Stop Rate or points per drive allowed. Both programs relied on their offenses to get the job done in 2021, but that doesn’t mean defense is dead either. UTSA’s defensive numbers are skewed upward a bit by multiple rounds against Bailey Zappe and the WKU offense. UAB, which was the runner-up in the West also was ranked in the Top 5 in Stop Rate.

The programs that failed to skirt .500 were the ones that didn’t have at least one or the other. Middle Tennessee and Old Dominions are great examples of programs that played solid defense and found just enough offensive pop at the right moments to reach the six win plateau and make a bowl game. Others like Rice, Charlotte and FIU were left on the outside looking in, largely because of mediocre to poor showings on both sides of the ball throughout the season.

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Conference USA Basketball 2022: January 24 Roundup

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Conference USA Basketball nearing the halfway point of league play. What have we learned so far and where does each team stack up against the rest?

Team NET  KenPom Record
Charlotte 162 209 10-7 (3-2)
FAU 136 147 11-8 (4-2)
FIU 236 245 12-7 (2-4)
LA Tech 85 85 15-4 (6-1)
Marshall 246 222 7-12 (0-6)
MTSU 118 141 12-6 (3-2)
North Texas 55 67 13-4 (6-1)
Old Dominion 221 203 7-11 (2-3)
Rice 164 180 11-7 (4-3)
Southern Miss 325 317 6-12 (1-4)
UAB 37 41 16-4 (6-1)
UTEP 185 182 11-8 (4-3)
UTSA 339 326 7-13 (0-7)
WKU 139 121 10-9 (2-4)
Kenpom rankings and standings as of 1/23/2022

Key Storylines

Wild, Wild West

The race for the top of the West Division got much more interesting this weekend when UAB went into Ruston and walked away with a relatively comfortable road win over Louisiana Tech. That leaves UAB, Louisiana Tech and North Texas tied atop the West with 6-1 conference records. Rice and UTEP, both 4-3, remain within striking distance.

Owls on the move

Florida Atlantic has won three in a row, completing a perfect three-game homestand against Charlotte, WKU and Marshall. The Owls began conference play 1-2 and fell near the bottom of the standings. Now they sit alone in first place atop the division. Their namesake counterparts, Rice, posted an emphatic win of their own over the weekend, finishing their game against Old Dominion on a 16-0 run.

Toppers in a tailspin?

Western Kentucky was expected to be among the best teams in Conference USA entering the season. They didn’t receive any first-place votes, but they were a clear No. 3 choice in the conference’s preseason poll. There wasn’t reason to panic after a narrow loss to Louisiana Tech on the road to start conference play, but their recent three-game has to at least raise some concern. They host UAB and Middle Tennessee next week. Getting a split would, at the very least, ease some anxiety.

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Conference USA Basketball 2022: New Year, Non-Conference Roundup

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Conference USA Basketball is just beginning conference play. Here’s where each of the teams stands entering the New Year.

Team Preseason Pick KenPom ’21-’22 Record
Charlotte 7 209 8-5
FAU 9 206 7-6
FIU 13 243 9-4
LA Tech 2 79 11-3
Marshall 4 155 7-7
MTSU 14 200 9-4
North Texas 6 74 8-3
Old Dominion 5 189 6-8
Rice 8 185 7-5
Southern Miss 12 286 3-9
UAB 1 48 12-3
UTEP 10 178 7-6
UTSA 11 306 7-6
WKU 3 106 8-6
Kenpom rankings and standings as of 1/2/2022

Key Storylines

Frontrunners living up to expectation

Louisiana Tech and UAB were the only teams to receive any first-place votes in the league’s preseason poll. While much of the remainder of the conference was a mixed bag, it seemed almost certain that these two squads would be good. So far, that appears to be the case. Both narrowly missed on a handful of Power 5 marquee wins, but they enter conference play relatively unscathed and clear favorites to cut down the nets in Frisco.

True contenders?

That next tier of teams is where things get interesting. North Texas had high hopes following their NCAA Tournament run last season, but the Mean Green did have to do some reloading. They started conference play with a bang, demolishing Rice. They could play a factor in the conference title race if that team shows up night after night.

Western Kentucky and perhaps Marshall might be the only other dark horses remaining. KenPom doesn’t have any other C-USA schools in the top 175 right now. That middle tier featuring teams like rice, Charlotte and MTSU could make for good parity down the stretch.

Make or break

The most telling storyline over the next few weeks could be which teams play themselves out of the hunt early. Southern Miss wasn’t projected to be very good this year. At 3-9 entering conference play, they join Old Dominion as the only two teams that failed to reach C-USA play with at least a .500 non-conference record.

UTSA, UTEP, Rice and FAU all seem like teams that could go either way depending on the night. That could make the next several weekends important for seeding purposes down the line.

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Conference USA Football 2021: Bowl Notes, Championship Game

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UTSA has won the 2021 Conference USA football championship. Now eight teams venture on to bowl season, with the first game fast approaching.

Team Opponent Bowl Time Date
MTSU Toledo Bahamas Bowl Fri. Dec. 17 11:00 a.m.
WKU App. St. Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl Sat. Dec. 18 10:00 a.m.
UTEP Fresno St. PUBG Mobile New Mexico Bowl Sat. Dec. 18 1:15 p.m.
UAB BYU Radiance Technology Independence Bowl Sat. Dec. 18 2:30 p.m.
Marshall Louisiana R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl Sat. Dec. 18 8:15 p.m.
ODU Tulsa Myrtle Beach Bowl Mon. Dec. 20 1:30 p.m.
UTSA* San Diego St Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl Tue. Dec. 21 6:30 p.m.
North Texas Miami (OH) Frisco Football Classic Thr. Dec. 23 2:30 p.m.
*Won Conference USA Football Championship Game

Conference USA Championship results – Standings

The Conference USA Football Championship lived up to the hype, with USTA winning a thrilling rematch against a Western Kentucky team that came roaring back with a vengeance. It was one of those games that someone has to lose, you just hope it’s not the team you root for. Sincere McCormick walked away with game MVP honors, toting the rock 36 times for 204 yards and three scores.

One more ride

Seth Littrell was as good as gone halfway through the 2021 season, or at least that’s what it seemed. The Mean Grene reeled off a five-game winning streak, capping it off with a stunning upset of a ranked UTSA squad to clinch bowl eligibility. It now looks like he’ll be back next season after all.

Rice football head coach Mike Bloomgren has also earned another season. His team dropped a pair of overtime games down the stretch, before pulling out a come-from-behind victory over Louisiana Tech in their season finale.

Hitting the reset button

There will be at least two head coaching changes in Conference USA prior to the 2022 season. Louisiana Tech announced they were parting ways with Skip Holts prior to their last game, a loss to Rice. They’ve already filled the position, hiring Texas Tech offensive coordinator Sunny Cumbie.

FIU is also making a change up top, moving on from Butch Davis in a drama-filled final few weeks. They haven’t named a replacement at this time, first opting to fill the vacant Athletic Director position. They tapped former UCF deputy AD Scott Carr to take that role. He will presumably hire his own head coach.

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Conference USA Football 2021: Week 13 C-USA Roundup

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Conference USA Football was back in action this weekend. Here’s the latest from the teams on the gridiron in Week 13.

Team Week 13 Result Up Next
Charlotte at Old Dominion L, 56-34 End of Season
FAU vs MTSU L, 27-17 End of Season
FIU at Southern Miss L, 37-17 End of Season
LA Tech at Rice L, 35-31 End of Season
Marshall vs WKU L, 53-21 Bowl Eligible
MTSU at FAU W, 27-17 Bowl Eligible
North Texas vs UTSA W, 42-23 Bowl Eligible
Old Dominion vs Charlotte W, 56-34 Bowl Eligible
Rice vs LA Tech W, 35-31 End of Season
Southern Miss vs FIU W, 37-17 End of Season
UAB vs UTEP W, 42-25 Bowl Eligible
UTEP at UAB L, 42-25 Bowl Eligible
UTSA at North Texas L, 45-23 C-USA Title Game
WKU at Marshall W, 53-21 C-USA Title Game

Notable Week 13 results – Standings

Let’s go bowling

Three programs clinched bowl eligibility on the final weekend of the regular season. Old Dominion was a a favorited entering their game with Charlotte and dispatched the 49ers behind a thunderous 21-point fourth quarter. North Texas and Middle Tennessee were both underdogs. The Mean Green upset a ranked UTSA squad while Middle Tennesee won a battle of 5-6 teams, effectively ending FAU’s postseason dreams. The latter two games were some of the more surprising results of the week.

Ending on a high note

Although they won’t be going bowling, both Rice and Southern Miss ended the season with a win. The Owls rallied to knock off Louisiana Tech in what was the final game of Skip Holtz’ tenure and the first four-win season for Rice under Bloomgren. Meanwhile, Southern Miss perfected the quarterbackless offense, closing their season with successive wins over Louisiana Tech and FIU.

At least it’s over

The Conference USA reps from the state of Florida are ready to put a pair of disappointing seasons to bed. FIU wasn’t expected to be a real contender, but going 0-11 against FBS opponents was a tough blow leading to the end of the Butch Davis era. Fellow Sunshine-staters FAU fell much further. A preseason pick by some to win the East, the Owls finished 3-5 in conference play and missed out on bowl eligible entirely.

Looking ahead – Key storylines

Let’s play two

The first meeting between Western Kentucky and UTSA was arguably the game of the year in Conference USA with the Roadrunners edging the Hilltoppers 52-46. Western Kentucky has not lost since, scoring 42 points or more in six of their seven consecutive victories. UTSA entered the national polls, but slowed down, falling to North Texas to end their hopes of a perfect season. Everything is on the line in this rematch which will (hopefully) live up to the hype.

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