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Rice Basketball: Owls must adjust with Guard Quincy Olivari out for the year

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With guard Quincy Olivari out for the year, Rice basketball must adjust, and it might be a bumpy process as they iron out the kinks.

A season filled with highs and lows for Rice basketball has continued along its bumpy path, finding its latest jarring cobblestone on Saturday at home against North Texas. The Owls fell to the Mean Green 67-44, their second 20+ point drubbing by the conference leaders in the span of a month and a half.

The last time these two teams met in Denton, Rice has just come off a three-week-long hiatus and was overcoming COVID-19 which had made its way through almost the entirety of the roster. “I don’t even count that game,” head coach Scott Pera said of that prior defeat, able to take solace in knowing his team would respond by winning four of their next five games.

This time, the future is less certain, in large part because of a new curveball. Guard Quincy Olivari broke his wrist late in the second half against UTEP as he was fouled going to the basket. Coach Pera confirmed Olivari would miss the remainder of the season.

“Not only does nobody feel sorry for us that Quincy is out,” Pera said, with a frank honesty that was as transparent as it was direct. “People are happy that Quincy is out because now they have a better chance of beating us.”

While Olivari was limited with a wrist injury in the fall, Rice lost four of seven games in a two-week span. They hadn’t lost that many games over any seven-game stretch since, at least that was the case until this loss to North Texas, the fourth defeat in the Owls’ last seven outings.

Rice basketball now sits at 6-6 in conference play with a hole to fix on their roster. They experimented with playing both bigs Myljyael Poteat and Max Fiedler at the same time on Saturday, a strategy they hadn’t utilized up to this point. More experiments are likely to come. Pera summed it up quite well: “We just have to find a way.”

Photo credit Maria Lysaker
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Conference USA Basketball 2022: Early February Roundup

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Conference USA Basketball is one month away from March and the conference tournament. Here’s where each team stands.

Team NET  KenPom Record
Charlotte 182 211 12-9 (5-4)
FAU 122 124 14-9 (7-3)
FIU 242 238 13-10 (3-7)
LA Tech 97 95 17-6 (8-3)
Marshall 249 243 8-15 (1-9)
MTSU 115 120 14-7 (5-3)
North Texas 51 61 16-4 (9-1)
Old Dominion 217 213 9-13 (4-5)
Rice 180 191 13-6 (6-5)
Southern Miss 331 334 6-16 (1-8)
UAB 39 38 18-5 (8-2)
UTEP 159 172 14-8 (7-3)
UTSA 338 329 8-16 (1-10)
WKU 127 110 12-11 (4-6)
Kenpom, NET, and standings reflect games as of 2/5/2022

Key Storylines

Anybody’s… conference

The East was always somewhat of a mixed bag, but there was a time in the not-so-distant past where it seemed like a foregone conclusion one of UAB or Louisiana Tech would win the West. Meanwhile WKU, an early favorite to win the East, is nowhere near the top of the standings on their side of the conference. No matter what happens down the stretch, every game will be meaningful.

Owls’ right the ship

FAU hit a rough patch at the beginning of the year, losing three of four games, a streak that began with a road loss to High Point. Since then the Owls have been on a roll. They’ve won six of seven and have surged back to the top of the East standings. There’s still a month to go, so they’re not out of the woods just yet, but to be back in the picture is a restatement to this team’s tremendous perseverance.

The leftovers

The gap separating those within striking distance of a conference tournament bye and the middle of the pack can is minuscule. A string of good (or bad) games can and probably will probably cause quite the tumult in the standings.

That won’t be the case at the bottom. Marshall, Southern Miss and UTSA all leave the first full weekend of February more than four games removed from first place and have yet to win double-digit games. We might not know who will finish first and second, but we can probably start to ink in the bottom three.

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Rice Football and the Transfer Portal: Are the Owls better off?

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Rice football has to deal with the Transfer Portal, just like every other program. Are the Owls better off or has the portal left at a deficit?

Every December the football season winds down and the Transfer Portal takes center stage. Rice football isn’t immune to players opting to leave the program for one reason or another. But is Rice winning in the transfer market or are they losing? How is this new adaptation specifically impacting the Owls? In short: the Transfer Portal has been a huge benefit to Rice football, and it’s not particularly close.

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I last did this study in 2019, evaluating players that came and went that season. The results were overwhelmingly positive. This look back will focus on players who came and went via the Portal for the 2020 and 2021 seasons.

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Rice Football: 2022 Spring semester roster notes

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The Rice football roster has seen some significant changes since the Owls last played a game. Here are the most prominent adjustments.

Roster churn impacts every college program in the country and the changes have only been exacerbated by the ever-changing transfer climate. Rice football has experienced a large number of adjustments to its roster from where things left off last season. Some of those shifts can be attributed to transfers, others involve players who have left the program for one reason or another.

This update highlights which key players have been left off the most recently released roster as of the end of January as well as incoming spring enrollees and various notes regarding position shifts, number changes and more.

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For those checking in for the first time, or those returning, a quick programming note. Special updates like this are reserved for our subscribers. Get access to all practice notes, features and more insights like this one when you subscribe on Patreon today.

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Conference USA Football 2021: Stop rate and defensive performance

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Conference USA football had some good defenses and some very bad ones in 2021. Which ones found ways to get off the field the most?

Recently published by The Athletic, stop rate is a useful tool for measuring college football defenses. Max Olson, who compiled the sat, defines stop rate as:

“a basic measurement of success: the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. This simple metric can offer a more accurate reflection of a defense’s effectiveness in today’s faster-tempo game than yards per game or even points per game.”

Although in previous years Olson had married stop rate with three-and-out rate, this year he’s placed points per drive data alongside the focal data point. Combined together, it paints a pretty compelling case when it comes to defining what elite-level defense looked like in college football this year. But what does it mean for Conference USA football, specifically?

Observations

You won’t find either UTSA or Western Kentucky in the Top 5 of Stop Rate or points per drive allowed. Both programs relied on their offenses to get the job done in 2021, but that doesn’t mean defense is dead either. UTSA’s defensive numbers are skewed upward a bit by multiple rounds against Bailey Zappe and the WKU offense. UAB, which was the runner-up in the West also was ranked in the Top 5 in Stop Rate.

The programs that failed to skirt .500 were the ones that didn’t have at least one or the other. Middle Tennessee and Old Dominions are great examples of programs that played solid defense and found just enough offensive pop at the right moments to reach the six win plateau and make a bowl game. Others like Rice, Charlotte and FIU were left on the outside looking in, largely because of mediocre to poor showings on both sides of the ball throughout the season.

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