Rice football had its chances, but missed opportunities proved too much to overcome, as the Owls fell to Memphis in a one-score game on the road.
Another strong start. Another furious fourth quarter rally. Another loss. Rice football was left with another all too familiar sour taste following a road defeat at Memphis on Friday night, the Owls’ seventh loss of the season. The Owls hung around with the Tigers all night but ran out of time in the fourth quarter.
“There’s a certain recipe that we know we have to cook to win the game. At the end of the day, we didn’t cook the full recipe,” interim head coach Pete Alamar said. Here are a few immediate reactions from the game:
Turnovers (almost) set the tone
A Rice football defense that felt allergic to turnovers for much of the season seems to have found the takeaway button at the most opportune time. The Owls went six games against FBS opponents before they registered more than one turnover in a game and went without a turnover at all in four of those games.
The tide began to turn two weeks ago against UConn when Rice took the ball away twice, but couldn’t muster enough points on the arm of a backup quarterback. With EJ Warner back at the helm and the offense up and running again, Rice knocked off Navy with the help of two turnovers from the defense, one of which came on the Owls’ first defensive possession.
A similar series of events put Rice football in front on Friday night. Following a Rice drive that stalled out to start the game the defense quickly got Memphis into third and long in the shadow of their own endzone. Tigers’ quarterback Seth Henigan tried to force the ball into a tight window but Rice corner Sean Fresch was ready and won the battle for the ball.
Sean Fresch joins the turnover club 💪pic.twitter.com/BHQrH6Wt0x
— The Roost (@AtTheRoost) November 9, 2024
Fresch probably could have had another takeaway on the ensuing possession but wasn’t able to corral a missile from Henigan that deflected off his hands. The defensive effort was the difference early, though, staking Rice to a 6-0 first quarter lead. That marked the fifth time in the Owls’ last six contests that the defense held their opponent scoreless in the first frame. For only the fourth time this season, Rice won the turnover battle. They held Henigan in check for most of the night. When you’re looking to mount an upset on the road, that’s how you have to start.
Red Zone Woes
On paper, the Rice offense matched the Owls’ strong defensive start, but no matter how efficient quarterback EJ Warner was between the 20s, the lack of finishing ability of the entire offensive unit allowed Memphis to stay in the game. Rice took over at the Memphis 20-yard line following the turnover but managed one first down before settling for a chip-shot field goal. In the next possession, the Owls drove 76 yards in 11 plays but petered out in the red zone again, kicking another field goal.
Scoring points in the red zone has been a problem for Rice this season, but the degree to which the Owls have been unable to capitalize on opportunities is staggering. Rice entered this game 132nd in the nation in red zone scoring percentage, getting points on just 68 percent of their drives that reach their opponent’s 25-yard line. Nationally, only Houston and UTEP are worse.
When you take away the chip shot field goals, which Rice settled for in each of their first two red zone drives on Friday, the numbers get even more discouraging. Rice was already dead last in the AAC entering this game with a 50 percent red zone touchdown percentage. That rate will fall to 47 percent after a 1-for-4 showing against Memphis.
“It’s the little things, not executing,” Warner pointed to after the game, emphasizing the impact of a misstep here or a yard too far there makes on plays in that are of the field.
The feeble field goal lead fell apart no sooner than it had been established with Memphis closing the half with three successive scoring drives, getting points on all three possessions in the second quarter. The Owls’ only saving grace to that point was a 27-yard strike from Warner to Matt Sykes. Apparently, that’s the Owls’ current solution to their red zone issues: score from outside the 25.
Rice answers!
Warner –> Sykes pic.twitter.com/79EJDQj4qu— The Roost (@AtTheRoost) November 9, 2024
Add in a turnover on the two-yard line when Warner and Dean Connors couldn’t connect on an exchange and you get a disastrous performance from up close. It’s hard to win football games when you don’t take advantage of those kinds of opportunities. Especially with Memphis going 3-for-3 in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on each trip.
Excellent EJ Warner
Even with their red zone issues, it’s impossible to discuss the Owls’ overall offensive renaissance of late without giving credit to Warner. The Owls’ transfer signal caller ran a vastly different offense at Temple and frankly looked out of his depth in his first month and change of live game action at South Main. Head coach Mike Bloomgren, who was always quick to support his guys, went on the record on multiple occasions demanding more from Warner who just wasn’t fully in sync with the offense early on.
Warner’s uncertainty showcased itself in very few throws downfield and lots of checkdowns to Connors who, not coincidentally, became the all-time receptions leaders for a running back in Rice football history against Memphis on Friday night. When Warner did air it out, passes were off the mark. As a result, defenses played close to the line of scrimmage and dared Warner to beat them. For the most part, he didn’t.
In Warner’s first four games, he averaged 3.85 adjusted yards per attempt, a statistic that measures a quarterback’s efficiency on his attempts, incorporating touchdowns and interceptions. As a rough rule, anything below five is sub-par. Warner only passed that number once, and it came against the Owls’ lone FCS opponent.
From the Charlotte game on, Warner has steadily shown progress. It’s not just the counting stats — he’s throwing for 90 more yards per game since that mark. He led what probably should have been the go-ahead drive in the fourth against the 49ers, missed field goal aside, and delivered the actual game-winning play a week later against UTSA.
Warner’s adjusted yards per attempt since Charlotte is 6.37. He registered 6.36 AYA against Memphis, right on the new standard he’s set for himself in the second half of the season. For as often as Warner was the problem early this year, he’s transformed himself into the solution.
Warner –> Mojarro.
We’ve got a ballgame. pic.twitter.com/Ms95h1mGPg
— The Roost (@AtTheRoost) November 9, 2024
He came through again on a key fourth down in the red zone, giving Rice football a chance to win a game they probably hadn’t earned the right to still be in.
What’s next?
The Navy game gave this team and this fanbase a reason to kindle hope for one more week. For at least a few more days, there was a chance this team had found their groove and could thread the needle, winning out to salvage one of the most unexpected bowl berths this program has ever seen. While there’s still an outside chance this team could go bowling with a five-win APR exception, the traditional path to a six-win season is officially not in the cards.
Senior Izeya Floyd say the team isn’t preoccupied with possible ways to sneak into the postseason.
“We don’t even think about it like that,” he said. “That’s not what we play for. We play to go win these games because that’s what we do. That’s what we do four our seniors, including myself. We’re going to go try and win these games. We’re going to go win these games.”
With that reality sinking in for the first time, the Memphis game felt a lot like a fair synopsis of this season. Rice did a lot of things well against a team expected to finish near the top of the American Athletic Conference. The Owls were one score away — giving the ball away on the doorstep in heartbreaking fashion along the way. Yet the result was the same as it’s been all too often this season, a loss in a competitive game the Owls couldn’t find a way to finish.
With the storybook finish likely done, all that’s left is to win the next two. For the first time all year, this feels like a team capable of getting that done.
“We got two games left. Let’s go win two games,” Alamar said post game. “Let’s be 3-1 in the month of November and let’s be playing out best football in the last game of the season. Let’s continue to grow as a football team and keep playing. I told our team in the locker room, our goals haven’t changed, to go out and win every week.”
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