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Rice Football: Owls rally falls short against Baylor Bears

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Another hard-fought nonconference game ended in defeat for Rice football who couldn’t rally from an early deficit against the Baylor Bears.

Rice football concluded their nonconference slate with their second straight bout with an in-state opponent. Baylor struck first but the Owls mounted a comeback which fell just short. Here are a few immediate takeaways from the game:

1. Shortening the game worked

When the first quarter ended Rice and Baylor were locked in a one-score game and the sun was still hanging in the sky. Despite the 6:00 p.m. kick, the Owls were able to fit an entire quarter in, and then some, before the stadium lights were needed. This is a theme we’ll see throughout this season.

The offense picked up three first downs in the first quarter and possessed the ball for a little more than five minutes. The defense bent, but only allowed the one touchdown. The formula in the second quarter was the same, with the Owls finding more success on offense — including their first successful field goal of the season.

Recruiting update | Owls gaining ground on priority targets

A week removed from giving up four consecutive touchdown drives against Texas with zero offensive points, Rice put a much more competitive product on the field and kept the score close, so close in fact that the Owls found themselves in a one-score game in the fourth quarter against a team most expected to run away from them.

2. Ground game goes quietly, again

Rice averaged 6.0 yards per carry in their season opener against Army. That included a long touchdown run by Nahshon Ellerbe, but even without the big gain, the Owls had success moving the ball on the ground. Since that Friday night, it’s been more than tough sledding.

The Owls tallied 67 rushing yards against Wake Forest, 87 against Texas and 64 against Baylor. For an offense that professes to live and die on pounding the rock, they were considerably less productive with the ground game controlled.

The opponents who were able to quiet the Owls’ rushing attack are all more talented and athletic than Army. They’re also more capable in the trenches than the remaining opponents on the schedule. Prior to Saturday, Rice hasn’t had an answer when the ground game isn’t working. The Owls needed the passing game to rise up, and it did.

3. This defense is going to win something

It might not be a championship (this year) but the Rice defense has proven themselves good enough to win games. Aside from a 50-yard touchdown against busted coverage — something which hasn’t happened as often this year as it did last year — the Rice defense played extremely well. In their previous two first halves, Baylor had scored 35 points against UTSA and 35 against SFA. Rice allowed 21.

Denzel Mims and RJ Sneed tallied 20 receptions for 244 yards and five touchdowns in their first two games. Rice held that duo to 126 yards and no scores on nine receptions.

Rice stopped Baylor on fourth down in this game, forcing a fumble in the process. They picked up another fumble on a botched exchange in the second quarter and should have gotten points off that turnover as well, but Chris Barnes missed the field goal.

Baylor hit a long pass down the sideline on their first possession of the third quarter. The defense responded by shutting down a wide receiver pass and stripping Brewer of the ball for their third forced fumble of the game.

3. Sustained drives make a difference

Getting to third and short has been a challenge for Rice. The Owls faced 18 third downs and converted eight of them. Five of those third downs were four yards or shorter. They converted four of those five. A good portion of that was the lack of effectiveness in the running game, but the passing game wasn’t consistent enough to set the Owls up in third and short often either.

Third down was a problem for this offense last year and a major factor in their inability to control games. Against Baylor, Rice converted three consecutive third downs on two separate occasions. Both possession ended with redzone field goals.

Better still, Rice found ways to move the ball before they found themselves in third down. Tom Stewart’s touchdown run came on the heels of a third and one conversion by Austin Walter.

4. The special teams dilemma

Bloomgren declined to make any public decisions regarding the placekicking entering Saturday’s contest. We saw incumbent Will Harrison come on and convert from 28 yards and 24 yards. Punter and team captain Chris Barnes missed late in the game from 44 yards.

Last year we saw Rice deploy a similar platoon situation. Jack Fox handled long field goals and Hayden Tobola kicked from roughly inside 40 yards.

Zach Hoban handled kickoffs against Baylor. He could be in the mix here as well once he’s fully recovered from an injury which kept him out of the first three games. Bottom line, this situation is still pretty hazy and we might not get clairt for a while.

5. The quarterback dilemma

Here are the final lines for both quarterbacks

Wiley Green | 13-of-23 passing for 128 yards
Tom Stewart | 5-of-8 passing for 50 yards with a 21-yard rushing touchdown

Green didn’t do much with his first two possessions of the game, ceding to Stewart as planned for the third series. Stewart made the most of his opportunity, connecting on two big third down throws, positioning Rice for two field goal attempts. Understandably, Bloomgren rode the hotter hand and kept Stewart in for the remainder of the first half.

Green started out the second half and was noticeably galvanized by the competition. He picked up a first down with his legs and drove the Owls the length of the field into the redzone ore the offense stalled. Stewart didn’t take a snap in the third quarter thanks to Green’s early success. Then Stewart reentered the game after Green got hit and promptly ripped off the 21-yard touchdown run.

Now Bloomgren is in a pickle. Both quarterbacks had their moments. At halftime I would have said Stewart was the better option. Then Green rallied in the second half. Conference play starts next week and it doesn’t look like Rice will have one definitive answer at the quarterback position.

5. No more mulligans. Conference play is here.

Slow starts have maligned the Rice offense through nonconference play. The defense has looked sharp, if not excellent. Next week those early themes will be put to the test in the first conference game of the season. An 0-4 start can fade quickly if Rice can find a way to reinvigorate the offense and keep the defense humming.

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Rice Football 2019 Game Preview: Week 4 vs Baylor Bears

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Rice Football wraps up nonconference play in Week 4 with a home game against Baylor. How to watch, stats to know, x-factor picks for both teams and more.

It’s been a tale of two very different seasons for Rice and Baylor in 2019. The Owls are 0-3, recipient of losses to Army, Wake Forest and Texas. The most recent defeat at the hands of the Longhorns was painful, but Rice will do their best this week to glean some learnings from the defeat and move on.

The Bears were able to watch Rice play from the comfort of their own homes last weekend. The second Big 12 team to visit Rice in Houston this year, Baylor had the first off week in Week 3. They’d previously defeated SFA and UTSA, both by wide margins.

It’s another all-Texas tussle in H-town. Here’s what you need to know about both Baylor and Rice before their Week 4 battle.

Broadcast Info

Kickoff time | 6:00 PM CT
Venu | Rice Stadium – Houston, Tx
TV | CBS Sports Network
Radio | Sports Map 94.1 (FM) / Stretch Internet (Online)
Streaming | CBSSN Online

Audio Preview

Catch the full preview of the Baylor game on Episode 9 of The Roost Podcast. Find us on the podcast page or wherever you like to listen to podcasts. (And consider leaving us a 5-star review while you’re at it.)

Sizing up the contenders

Baylor enters their game against Rice a step ahead of the Owls in their own rebuilding process. Matt Rhule went 1-11 in his first year in command in Waco, improving to 7-6 a year ago with a bowl victory over Vanderbilt to end the season. Now in Year 3, the Bears look to have recovered from a challenged state on the football field. They’ve come a long way.

Rice is in Year 2, coming off a two-win season under Bloomgren in 2018, in some ways a step ahead of the Bears with Rhule. That progress will be tested on the field on Saturday in a game which should feature a heavy ground attack from both teams.

Like Rice, Baylor likes to pound the rock. They’ve averaged 38 carries in their first two games compared to 30 pass attempts. Eight different players have at least one rushing touchdown, including starting quarterback Charlie Brewer who isn’t exactly a mobile guy. There’s no doubt Rice will be more committed to the ground game than Baylor, a strategy which served them well in a near-upset of Army in Week 1.

Series History

All Time | Baylor leads 49-30
Last Five | Baylor leads 5-0
Last Meeting | Home 2016, Baylor won 38-10

Rice Stat Notables

Passing | Stewart – 31/53 (58.5 percent), 364 yards passing, 3 TD, 0 INT
Rushing | Walter – 42 carries, 170 yards (4.0 yards per carry), 1 TD
Receiving | Trammell – 16 receptions, 204 yards (12.8 yards per reception), 1 TD
Tackles | Alldredge – 21, Chamberlain – 20
Pass Breakups/Interceptions | Alldredge – 2 PBU, Four others tied with 1

Baylor Stat Notables

Passing | Brewer – 33/47 (70.2), 362 yards passing, 6 TD, 0 INT
Rushing | Bohanon – 13 carries, 177 yards (13.6 yards per carry), 1 TD
Receiving | Mims – 12 receptions, 147 yards (12.3 yards per reception), 3 TD
Tackles | Johnston – 11, Miller – 10
Pass Breakups/Interceptions | Lynch – 1 INT/1 PBU, Five others tied with 1 PBU

Baylor X-Factor | Wide receiver play

The Rice secondary has taken significant strides from where they were a year ago. Texas got a receiver behind the back line and threw a deep ball for a run in touchdown, but the Owls defensive backs have kept most everyone else in front of them. Baylor will look to test that resiliency.

Denzel Mims (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) and RJ Sneed (6-foot-1, 200 pounds) each pose a size and height mismatch with the Rice corners. Baylor wants to run the ball, but they’ll look to keep the defense honest with this pair of elite playmakers. If the Bears can win through the air, it’s going to be hard for the Owls’ front seven to stay home and do what they do best.

Charlie Brewer isn’t a better quarterback than Wake Forest’s Jamie Newman or Texas’ Sam Ehlinger, but he’s more than capable of getting the ball to his playmakers. How effective he is in that endeavor and how Rice does in those matchups could be a telling factor in how this game will go.

Rice X-Factor | First down

The most important down for the Rice offense is the first one. Winning third down and staying on the field is an area the Owls’ need to improve in as well, but the effectiveness of the offense as a whole is dependent on what the team does on first down. When Rice is able to move the ball, setting up second and mediums they put their run-first offense on schedule.

Eventual third and short situations give Rice a wide-open playbook, something especially significant if they’re starting a backup quarterback again this week. Rice didn’t win first down against Texas until late in the second half. By the time Rice started to gain momentum in that department, the score was out of hand.

The running game will set the tone, but it’s going to take a team effort from the offensive line and receiving corps to ensure Rice can set the tone early. Opening things up from the start will change the complexion of this game.

Injury Report

Wiley Green has been cleared and will start for Rice on Saturday but Tom Stewart is still expected to be in the mix at quarterback. A full injury update is available here.

Need More?

The Roost’s 2019 Rice Football Season Preview has four pages dedicated to every opponent the Owls face. There are depth chart, important new arrivals and depth chart breakdowns for each foe. Better yet, it’s not just speculation, each profile was created with insight from local experts who cover those teams day in and day out. Pick up your copy today and get four pages and more than 1,000 words on Baylor.

Pick ‘Em Contest

If you haven’t yet, make sure you submit your entry for The Roost’s weekly pick’em challenge. Choose an answer to each of the six questions below and submit them on the forum thread to enter.

  1. Will the Rice defense register their first interception?
    Yes / No
  2. Which team will throw more incomplete passes?
    Rice (or tie) / Baylor
  3. Who kicks the longest punt for Rice?
    Barnes / Nunez
  4. How many Rice players will have at least six tackles?
    Over 5.5 / Under 5.5
  5. Will Rice score more points in the first half or the second half?
    First Half (or even) / Second Half
  6. Who wins?
    Rice / Baylor

One Final Thing

This is the last in an arduous string of nonconference games for Rice in 2019. Keeping the active players healthy and getting injured plays back to full health should be at the top of the Owls’ priority list. While the strength and conditioning staff and medical team are focused on those efforts, the team will prepare for their last chance at a nonconference statement.

Losing to Baylor won’t doom the season, but the Owls are cognizant of the opportunity at hand. In their home stadium with three weeks of their own film to assess and improve on, Rice should put a better product on the field than they did in Week 3. That’s going to be critical for team morale as they enter into conference play the weekend following.

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Rice Football: Texas overwhelms Owls in lopsided affair

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Rice football couldn’t get things going on either side of the ball as the Owls fell in a one-sided game to the Texas Longhorns at NRG Stadium.

It was a tough night in Houston for the Rice Owls. Texas controlled the game against the hometown team from start to finish, thwarting the Owls every bright spot with a painful counterpunch of their own. After two “moral victories” this defeat stung a little bit more than the previous two. There will be plenty more to dissect in the coming days, for now, a few immediate reactions:

1. Offense comes out flat

Whether it was the absence of starting quarterback Wiley Green or the overt athleticism of the Texas front, Rice got nothing going on the offensive side of the ball. Rice went into halftime with 56 total yards of offense. The Owls ground game, their staple which kept them in a one-score contest against Army, was limited to 35 yards on 13 carries (2.7 yards per attempt).

The first down efforts bring into question something for which the Owls have yet to identify an answer: what do you do when you can’t run the ball? Against Wake Forest the Owls tested the waters threw the air and found moderate success. They didn’t try to attack the Longhorn secondary like they’d opened things up against Wake Forest, both times with backup Tom Stewart at the offensive controls.

The bright spot was a 45-yard bomb from Stewart to Trammell midway through the third quarter. The play was Trammell’s longest reception of his career. Rice wasn’t able to capitalize with points on the drive, a missed opportunity.

The offensive metrics weren’t good.

  1. 266 total yards
  2. 12 complete passess
  3. 2.8 yards per carry
  4. 5-of-13 on third down

This was a night where the Owls’ offense would gladly take a mulligan.

2. Pass rush woes

Good quarterbacks with time to throw are a bad combination for a defense. Rice found themselves in that uncomfortable situation throughout their Saturday tilt with Texas. The Owls tried a fair amount of things — different looks, stunts, extra rushers — the Texas offensive line held.

Ehlinger’s second touchdown pass of the day highlighted this struggle. You can count six different Owls around the pocket. Then Ehlinger unloads his big arm and sails a bomb over the head of Prudy Calderon, into the waiting arm of Jake Smith for a 53-yard touchdown.

Rice didn’t register any sacks against Army, understandable given the extremely few passing opportunities. The Owls were shutout in the sack department again in their second game against Wake Forest. It took 12 quarters, but Blaze Alldredge broke through with the Owls first sack of the season, taking down Texas backup Casey Thompson in the fourth quarter.

By and large, the front seven has been exceptional against the run. They just need to find a way to get to the quarterback more than once every three games.

3. Making them work for it on the ground

For as much as the struggled to generate a pass rush, the Rice front seven played the run well against an extremely talented Texas offensive line. Keaontay Ingram’s 26-yard fourth down touchdown run in the second quarter was well blocked and could have been mitigated had their not been a missed tackle in the secondary by Andrew Bird.

The talent discrepancy between the Owls and the Longhorns was clear when Texas through the ball. It wasn’t as apparent when they tried to run. Ingram’s touchdown was the longest Longhorn run of the night.

Film Room | Breaking down the Owls’ fourth down stop against Army

The grind of the game resulted in a smattering of 10-12 yard carries in the second half, inflating what started off a sub-three yards per carry allowed metric to 4.8 yards per carry by the end of the game.

When Texas tried to run up the middle, they didn’t get very far. The edge held well, too. Texas isn’t known for their power running, but the level to which the Owls were able to win on the line of scrimmage and clog rush lanes was impressive. That bodes extremely well for conference play.

4. Not there yet

In a season full of optimistic losses, this game didn’t feel nearly as rosy. Rice was competitive against Army and Wake Forest. They weren’t against Texas. The Longhorns were better on all phases and the results on the field showed that. Rice has a long way to go before they’re ready to go toe to toe with Texas, but that’s okay.

Rice knew how challenging the nonconference schedule was before the season started. An 0-3 start matches where most projections had the Owls at this point. If anything, one could argue the team is punching over their belt given how close they’ve come to winning any of these first three games.

There’s no rest for the weary. Rice will return to action next week against a Baylor squad that outscored SFA and UTSA by a combined score of 119-31. The Owls’ coaching staff will be back to the drawing board, tasked with correcting the offensive struggles and defensive breakdowns over the next week.

Beating Texas isn’t the measuring stick for this team, not yet. Let’s not throw out the positives from the first few weeks of the season because Rice lost to a team ranked inside the Top 15. Last year’s Conference USA Champs, UAB, trailed Texas A&M 34-7 after three quarters, and their season ended up being a tremendous success. The year is young. And hey, the Owls are winning in the classroom.

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College Football Upsets: The anatomy of the successful underdog

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College football upsets highlight every fall Saturday, but not all are created equal. How do the biggest underdogs pull off the most improbable wins?

When Rice football meets Texas on the gridiron on Saturday there won’t be anyone in the stadium unaware of the chasm separating the two teams. Texas, although soured by a close loss to LSU a week prior, is still a Top 15 team with College Football Playoff aspirations. Rice is looking for their first win of the season and their first win over the Longhorns since 1994. The biggest college football upsets always start out with equally insurmountable odds.

Some would call an upset of this magnitude all but impossible. And that’s mostly true — team’s separated by such a talent gap rarely play close games, let alone upset-worthy contests.

But it happens. Every single year.

Every season the college football world is stunned when an “unbeatable” national brand falls to an underdog, a team who seemingly came out of nowhere to stun the nation. The thing is, if Rice can do the unthinkable and beat Texas, they won’t even be the first distant longshot to pull off an upset of that caliber this season.

Starting with Georgia State’s shocker against Tennessee in Week 1 and stretching back to Appalachain State’s wild win over No. 5 Michigan in 2007, I’ve detailed the who and the how behind some of college football’s biggest upsets in recent memory with the help of media members who know these games well. If Rice football wants to be next on the list, these are the blueprints to follow.

2019 | Georgia State over Tennessee

Scott Watkins, 247 Sports


Scott Watkins primarily covers Troy, a program familiar with big-time upsets. The Trojans famously knocked off Ed Orgeron and LSU at Tiger Stadium in 2017. Meaning to ask him about that thrilling upset, Watkins mentioned another piece he’d put together shortly before the 2019 season — one detailing what needed to happen for lowly Georgia State to knock off the Tennessee Volunteers. Not only did his prediction come true, but the details of how it would need to happen were spot on.

Watkins called for staying strong in the trenches, sticking to the team’s own strengths rather than resorting to gadget plays, winning the turnover battle, surviving the Tennessee surge and winning on special teams. Entering the fourth quarter, Georgia State had done each of those. Tennessee led 23-21, but the Panthers were right in the thick of the fight.

Then the dam broke. Georgia State exploded for 17 points in seven minutes. Tra Barnett and Dan Ellington had touchdown runs. Brandon Wright delivered the dagger, a 48-yard field goal with 2:37 to play.

Scott’s biggest takeaways

“Georgia State needs to find success in all five categories in order to call down lightning in Neyland on Saturday. That may seem a daunting task for a young program coming off of a two-win season, but this is college football and the Sun Belt has certainly seen crazier.”

2007 | Appalachian State upsets No. 5 Michigan, 34-32

Zach Bigalke, Saturday Blitz

Perhaps the biggest upset in college football history almost never happened. Appalachian State didn’t have Michigan scheduled until February 2007, claiming an open spot in the Wolverines schedule after their original opponent had backed out. App State was coming off back-to-back FCS National Championships, but the talent gap was so wide that sportsbooks didn’t publish a betting line, expecting Michigan to win with ease.

Not only did App State hang with Michigan, they pushed the home team to the brink. In the end, it all came down to a 37-yard field goal attempt for Wolverines’ kicker Jason Gingell. What happened next has become one of the most iconic moments in underdog history:

Zach says the incredible finish was no fluke. “[Corey] Lynch and Jerome Touchstone had worked regularly on a play they called the Furman Block. With the two lining up wide of Jake Long, Touchstone drew Michigan blocker Shawn Crable out of the play, freeing Lynch for a free run on the kicker. On the final kick, it worked so well and Lynch had such a clear path that he almost overran the kick as it hit him in the stomach.”

You don’t see many Top 10 teams scheduling FCS champs nowadays, making the setup for an upset of this caliber almost unrepeatable. But it does give testament to one unwavering tenant of this sport: anything can happen on any given Saturday.

Zach’s biggest takeaways

“App State came into this contest with supreme motivation while their opponents largely thought their counterparts were walkovers. (That is almost certainly a given in pretty much all upset situations.) While the AP stated before the game that they ‘aren’t expected to be anything more than sacrificial lambs’, the Mountaineers did not harbor that expectation for themselves.”

2013 | UCF upsets No. 8 Louisville, 38-35

Eric Henry, Underdog Dynasty

Led by Teddy Bridgewater, the undefeated Louisville Cardinals seemed on a collision course with Florida State in the ACC. UCF was 5-1 at the time, but Blake Bortles and company wasn’t expected to be able to go toe to toe with Bridgewater or future NFL wideouts Eli Rogers and DeVante Parker.

Louisville marched out to a 28-7 underscored by a defensive touchdown midway through the third quarter, putting the underdog on the ropes. Then the rally started.

As Eric Henry recalls it, “the recipe for their comeback was equal parts their own doing as much as it was Louisville taking their foot off of the gas.” Staked to a three-touchdown lead with seven minutes to play in the third quarter, Louisville relaxed.

UCF kept fighting. The Knights outscored the Cardinals 31-7 over the final 22 minutes, capped off with a two-yard touchdown pass from Bortles to Jeff Godfery in the final minute.

Eric’s biggest takeaways

“The thing that stands out to me vividly is just how quickly the Louisville crowd was taken out of the game by the time the 4th [quarter] started which is a huge factor when trying to pull off the upset on the road.”

2016 | Houston upsets No. 3 Oklahoma, 33-23

Sam, Scott and Holman Podcast

The stakes of the Houston Cougars’ 2016 season opener against No. 3 Oklahoma could not have been any higher. Houston was being mentioned as a possible dark horse to reach the College Football Playoff. Far from a Cinderella, the odds still slanted significantly away from this Group of 5 program set to square off with Baker Mayfield.

As good as Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. was in this game (23/40 for 321 yards and two passing touchdowns) the Cougars were able to trade punches with Oklahoma into the second half thanks to a deeper-than-expected roster.

It was speedster Brandon Wilson, not Ward, who broke the game open midway through the third quarter. He returned a missed field goal by Sooners’ kicker Austin Seibert 100 yards for a touchdown. The kick would have given Oklahoma a 20-19 lead. Instead, the favorite trailed 26-17.

More: Sam joins The Roost Podcast to discuss more on the Cougs’ big upset

As Sam put it, Wilson was one of a collective of unheralded guys “outperforming their recruiting rankings, but with the underdog mentality.” The nobodys had become somebody’s. “This is what every Group of 5 school fan base wants, but rarely gets even at resource-rich schools like the University of Houston.”

Staked to that two-score lead, Houston would hold Oklahoma to a lone fourth-quarter touchdown, never being threatened after the huge special team’s play thrust them into the driver’s seat.

Sam’s biggest takeaways

“The 2012-14 Houston recruiting classes would produce 17 players who went on to either be on an NFL roster or be named to multiple all-conference teams. That’s incredible when you consider none of those 17 players were rated higher than a 3-star by any recruiting service. Most of those players were still on the Cougar roster in 2016, guys like Greg Ward Jr, Tyus Bowser, Matthew Adams, Steven Dunbar, Brandon Wilson and Steven Taylor. ”

2018 | UCF upsets No. 7 Auburn, 34-27

Eric Henry, Underdog Dynasty


This UCF upset had very different circumstances than the 2013 game. Rather than falling behind and having to rally, UCF kept things close with Auburn in the Peach Bowl. Auburn led 3-0 after the first quarter; that was a statement in itself.

From there, UCF was on an even-enough footing to mount a counter assault. Following a strip-sack of Jarrett Stidham by the UCF defense, McKenzie Milton’s second quarter touchdown run gave UCF a jolt of energy.

Eric reiterated, “Score quickly”. UCF had three scoring drives in that second quarter. Two of them lasted less than one minute, the third took just over three minutes off the clock. Suddenly, a narrow Auburn lead turned into a 13-3 halftime deficit, officially placing the SEC favorite on upset alert.

The teams traded blows in the second half. With UCF keeping the margin within a touchdown the entire time. Then the Knights lowered the hammer. Chequan Burkett nabbed a pass from Stidham near midfield and returned it for a touchdown, pushing the UCF advantage to 34-20 with 5:56 remaining in regulation.

Eric’s biggest takeaways

“You need some type of big-play. Something that says to the favorite that you can play on their level.”

2018 | Old Dominion upsets No. 13 Virginia Tech, 49-35

Ed Miller, Virginia Pilot

An innocuous home-and-home series took a turn for the worse for Virginia Tech when starting quarterback Justin Jackson went down with an injury. The game was dead even through the first half and stayed close through the third quarter, with Old Dominion trailing 28-21 entering the fourth.

Merely staying with the No. 13 Hokies was impressive, and Old Dominion had done so by not overthinking their plan of attack. Wide receivers Travis Fulgham and Jonathan Duhart would each finish the year with more than 1,000 yards. They were the focal point of the Monarchs’ attack. Fulgham caught nine passes for 188 yards and a score. Duhart grabbed nine of his own for 142 yards and three touchdowns.

Duhart’s final touchdown of the game broke a 35-35 tie with five minutes to play. Running back Jeremy Cox finished the Hokies with a 40-yard score in the final two minutes to salt away the win.

Ed’s biggest takeways

“In ODU’s case, they found something that worked and stuck with it. Namely they were able to exploit match-ups on the outside in the passing game. ODU was also playing at home, which certainly helped. They had an older team – with 21 seniors. I think in some cases an underdog with experience can beat a more talented squad that might be younger.”

So how does an underdog pull an upset?

As evidenced by even these select few games, no upset is created equal. The differences between the Georgia State’s and UCF’s of the world couldn’t be any more readily apparent. But both were able to achieve their goals.

There’s something to be said for the mental fortitude of each of these teams. They clearly didn’t believe their games were unwinnable, more so, they continued to fight when faced with deficits that lasted even into the fourth quarter. They knew that any close game could turn on its head in an instant. These games did.

Momentum changing plays, particularly on special teams, were huge — look no further than Houston’s 100-yard missed field goal return or App State’s game-winning field goal block.

All of that is predicated on having enough talent on the roster to stay in the game. Rice has proven they’re much better than they were a year ago. Are they talented enough to keep pace with Texas? We’ll just have to wait and see. I can tell you this, there’s not a single person on South Main who believes the Owls can’t do this.

Rice football knows its identity. They know the formula to keep a talented opponent on the ropes. All that’s left is to execute, get a few breaks, and hang on. If they can do that, the 2019 Owls can add their name to this illustrious list of underdogs.

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Rice Football Film Room: Breaking down Owls’ offense vs Wake Forest

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Rice Football dropped their first home contest to Wake Forest on Friday. Carter Spires takes us beyond the box score, unpacking the Owls’ offense and more.

Hey y’all, it’s Carter, and welcome back to the film room! This week we’re gonna be breaking down a couple of plays in the passing game. We’ll take a look at two plays from the Rice offense, breaking down the emergence of playmakers at wide receiver and quarterback. Then we’ll look at one for the Rice defense to highlight the growth in the secondary and show that sometimes great offense just beats great defense.

Play 1 | Wiley Green to Brad Rozner

Rice Football, Brad Rozner, Wiley Green

Setup

It’s Rice’s second drive of the game, 6:06 to go in the first quarter. Rice is down 14-0. It’s second and 10 from the Wake 44. Rice has 11 personnel (1 back 1 TE) on the field in a spread set with two wide receivers stacked to the field (the wide side of the field), and Wiley Green is in the shotgun with Aston Walter behind him and to his right.

Bradley Rozner is the “Z” receiver to the boundary (the short side of the field), which is the strong side here because the TE (can’t tell which one) is lined up on that side. Wake responds by showing a split safety look, with the corner playing off Rozner and “rover” (a hybrid OLB/S/nickel similar to Rice’s Viper) Luke Masterson playing the seam about 7 yards off the line of scrimmage.

More: 5 Takeaways from the Owls’ Week 2 game against Wake Forest

The rover is Green’s key on this play, which after a bit of back and forth with myself I’m fairly sure is an RPO (more on that in a bit). Rozner is going to run what’s called a glance route or skinny post—that is, he’ll stem his route vertically, then break toward the middle of the field at a shallow angle. If the rover bails at the snap (i.e., if Wake is playing Cover 2 to that side to bracket Rozner), Green will hand the ball off to Walter, because in that case, Rice has 6 blockers to Wake’s 6 defenders in the box.

If the rover flows downhill at the snap to play the run (based on the alignment of Wake’s front, I think he’s responsible for the strongside C-gap, between the tackle and the TE), then Wake has the numbers advantage in the run game and Rozner is in single coverage, so Green will pull the ball and throw it to him. Since there’s no middle-of-the-field safety in this coverage, a completed pass to Rozner here could mean a huge gain (and it does!)

The Play

On whether this is an RPO: the broadcast the color commentator identified it as such because LG Nick Leverett pulls at the snap, but that can sometimes be window dressing for a play-action pass. The rest of the OL doesn’t exactly fire downhill (look at Clay Servin). What sells me is that RT Justin Gooseberry, after a quick double team, climbs to the second level to block the linebacker, which he wouldn’t be doing if it were a called pass. So I’m fairly certain this is an RPO.

It’s a pretty easy read for Green. Masterson is creeping downhill even *before* the snap. He’s already taken a couple steps forward by the time Walter reaches the mesh point. As such, Green doesn’t even have to hesitate at the mesh point; he quickly pulls the ball and flips it to Rozner, who does a great job of breaking his route in time to box out the corner. He makes the catch, slips the corner’s tackle attempt, and makes it all the way inside the 5 on the play. First and goal, Owls.

Play 2 | Tom Stewart to August Pitre

Rice Football, Tom Stewart, August Pitre

Setup

2:16 left in the 1st quarter and Rice is down 14-7. They have it 2nd and 7 on the Wake 26 on Tom Stewart’s first full drive at QB. Rice is in 20 personnel (2 backs no TE), in another shotgun spread set. Rozner is the lone receiver to the boundary. August Pitre is wide to the field. Austin Trammell is in the slot, and Stewart is flanked by Nahshon Ellerbe (right) and FB Reagan Williams (left). Wake is again in their nickel personnel, showing a split safety look.

The Play

At the snap, the safety and both outside corners bail deep while the nickel back and linebackers drift into shallow zones. The TV camera is too zoomed in for us to tell exactly what happens, but since we later see the safety running towards Pitre from the middle of the field, it looks like they bailed into Cover 3 (in this case a very basic 3 deep/4 under pure zone coverage) from the split safety look.

Both Trammell and Pitre stem their routes vertical at the snap. Trammell breaks his off into a curl (a type of comeback route, often used to find holes in zone coverage) a couple of yards past the first down marker. He’s briefly open if Stewart fires the ball out right as he breaks his route, but it looks like Stewart wants Pitre all the way*.

It’s difficult to tell what route Pitre is running, again because of the camera, but it looks like he breaks his route inward just before disappearing from view. But by the time the ball reaches him, he’s breaking back toward the sideline, meaning this is some kind of double-move, either a post-corner or post-out.

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Either way, he finds some space under the outside corner’s deep third and above the nickel’s shallow zone. (The nickel might have been in a position to make the play, but he spent a long time lingering to make sure Reagan Williams wasn’t going to leak out of the pass protection and catch a checkdown underneath). Both are closing hard as the ball’s in the air though, so the window ends up being a tight one.

It’s a perfect play from both Stewart and Pitre. Stewart puts the ball high where only his guy can get it, and Pitre shows off his leaping ability to high point the ball and come down with it. First and goal, Rice. They’d tie the game on a zone-read keeper from Stewart the next play.

Play 3 | Jamie Newman to Scotty Washington

Rice Football

Setup

Sadly, I probably shouldn’t *only* show Rice’s best plays in this column. I want to highlight this particular Wake TD though, because it dovetails with what Matthew and I said on the pod this week. Several times against Wake, the Rice DBs were in position to make a play and were simply beat straight up by Jamie Newman’s pinpoint passing and the size and athleticism of his gargantuan receivers.

That’s frustrating, but it’s better than getting beat because you were out of position or couldn’t stick with your man in coverage. This play was bad for Rice, but it shows some promise for the Rice secondary (or for Andrew Bird, at least) in conference play.

Wake is in an 11 personnel shotgun spread set, with two receivers to the field, and the RB and H-back both lined up on the offense’s right. Rice is in their base defensive personnel, which we’ll call a nickel here, because Treshawn Chamberlain is most definitely lined up as a DB rather than a LB. They’re showing a five-man front with a Cover 1 man-under look in the secondary, with Chamberlain as the deep safety. They’re playing press-man on the outside receivers, as is preferred in DC Brian Smith’s scheme.

We’re mainly concerned with Andrew Bird, lined up as the boundary corner on Scotty Washington (who checks in at a whopping 6-foot-5, 225 pounds), but I do wanna highlight the versatility of these Rice defenders. The Viper role often has nickel DB/outside linebacker responsibilities, but Chamberlain is playing deep safety in Cover 1. Blaze Alldredge, the starting weakside (“Will”) linebacker, is lined up as a standup defensive end. George Nyakwol, the starting free safety, is basically playing linebacker. These guys can do it all!

The Play

At the snap, Rice sends all five defenders on the line. Antonio Montero and Nyakwol follow on a delayed blitz**. Unfortunately, none of Rice’s players on the front can beat their blocks in time to affect the throw. Newman gets the ball out fast enough that Montero and Nyakwol don’t have time to get home even though they have numbers to that side with both blitzing.

Meanwhile, Bird plays outside leverage at the snap, wanting to seal Washington off from the sideline since he’s got help to the middle of the field. Washington stutters the outside, getting a clean release. Bird does well to recover, staying engaged and in phase with the receiver throughout the route.

Both of them see the ball in flight when they’re at about the 5-yard line, and Bird even manages to negate Washington’s height advantage enough to get a hand in at the catch point. Unfortunately for him, Washington is not only four inches taller than he is, but 50 pounds heavier as well, and I’m guessing that a fair amount of those 50 pounds are muscle. Washington hangs on to the ball, and it’s a TD for Wake.

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It didn’t work this time, but in this play you can see exactly what Brian Smith wants this defense to be against the passing game. Physical man coverage on receivers paired with aggressive and hopefully confusing pressure from the front. If Jamie Newman were a little less accurate or a little less comfortable in a compressed pocket, or if Scotty Washington were even 2–3 inches shorter, this play goes as planned for Rice. As Rice’s players continue to develop in the scheme (and in the long term, as the staff continues to recruit players who fit it), they’ll get even better at executing.

So there you have it. We asked for some playmakers to step up for Rice in the passing game, and they did that against Wake. (I didn’t break down a play for Austin Trammell, but he was stellar as well). And while this weekend’s game against Texas is going to feature a similarly capable QB and even more enormous receivers, not many C-USA teams can replicate that. If Rice’s secondary maintains this level of play when they get to the conference games, the results will look a lot better.

Notes

*I’m not entirely familiar with this route combination (a hitch from the slot with a post-corner or post-out from the outside receiver), so I can’t tell you for certain what the read for the QB is. It seems to be the same basic principle as a smash concept (which is a corner route from the slot over an outside hitch)—that is, you put a high-low stress on the curl/flat defender. If he stays shallow to rob the underneath route, you throw the deep route. If he goes deeper into his zone to take away the vertical route, you throw to the underneath receiver.

**For Nyakwol this is probably a “green dog” blitz—i.e., he’s assigned to cover the RB in man, but if the back stays in pass pro, he blitzes.

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