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Conference USA Football: Debunking the returning starters stat

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Returning starters are important, but don’t let that be the only indicator of success in Conference USA football this season.

Conference USA football media days are right around the corner. Every coach will stand in front of the media and offer some clarity into some of the narratives that have been surrounding their programs for the last few months. 2018 will be put to bed as everyone turns their collective focus to 2019, the season to come.

With the new year comes a familiar stat thrown out with increasing regularity: returning starters. Fans and media alike would love to boil down their expectations of next season into a digestible number. Returning starters has become a placeholder of sorts for that aggregate view. But it might be one of the more troubling data points to process.

For example, FIU and Western Kentucky sit atop Conference USA with 19 returning starters apiece. FIU won nine games last year and came close to playing for the conference championship. Western Kentucky won three games, finishing 2-6 in conference play.

The Hilltoppers have a new coach in the mix, but is it reasonable to assume they’ll be on par with FIU because the same number of guys will be taking the majority of the snaps? Not likely.

Likewise, Rice and Marshall each have six returning starters on defense but the Thundering Herd allowed 100 yards fewer per game than the Owls did last season. And for that matter, it’s entirely within the realm of possibility some of the Owls newcomers who will be starters in 2019 will be better than those who left the program last fall.

Team Offense Defense Special Teams Total
FIU 8 8 3 19
WKU 10 6 3 19
Southern Miss 9 6 3 18
North Texas 8 6 3 17
Marshall 8 6 2 16
UAB 8 5 3 16
Charlotte 5 7 3 15
Florida Atlantic 7 6 2 15
Louisiana Tech 8 5 2 15
Rice 7 6 1 14
UTEP 7 4 3 14
Middle Tennessee 4 6 3 13
Old Dominion 4 5 3 12
UTSA 6 4 2 12

If there is any commonality between the returning starters across Conference USA and the rest of college football, it’s the lack of consistency. Returning starters doesn’t matter as much as returning high-caliber players. That’s more difficult to measure, and thus we’re stuck with a more vague, less helpful statistic. Returning starters are good; returning playmakers are better.

Find out more about the top returning playmakers in Conference USA by grabbing a copy of our 2019 Conference USA Preview.

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Rice Football Recruiting: How the Owls are hacking the 2020 rankings

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The 2020 Rice Football Recruiting class is finding top-flight players before major services discover them. How the Owls’ are winning recruiting.

In the world of college football recruiting, stars matter. The rating assigned by 247 Sports and other ratings services are talking points for fans around the country whenever a new player commits (or thinks about committing) to their school of choice. While recruiting players with higher star ratings is generally a positive sign, Rice football has found a loophole in the process.

247 can’t rate every recruit in the country. There are tens of thousands of aspiring college football recruits and only so many hours in the day. Some larger programs can throw their conference affiliation or national brand at the blue-chip players to lure them to school. Rice has found a hack of their own.

The 2020 Rice Football recruiting class features 14 commits including 11 three-star players. Of those 11, six of them were unranked at the time they chose to commit to the Owls. That means the coaching staff was able to identify premium talent before the recruiting services.

Prior to his commitment, cornerback Sean Fresch was unrated. Now he’s the highest-rated recruit in the Owls’ 2020 class. Cornerback Devon Gunter didn’t have a star rating either. He’s the fourth-highest ranked recruit in the class. Lineman Matt Latos, tight end Nate Kamper, offensive lineman Trey Phillippi and wide receiver Andrew Mason have similar stories. From zero stars to three stars, overnight.

Available Now: 2019 Rice Football Season Preview 

At the end of the day, stars don’t win football games, players do. But the 2020 Rice Football recruiting class is stocked with high-level talent, largely because the coaching staff is ahead of the curve. When you know the answer before the rest of the nation does, you’re probably on the right track.

That’s why Rice has a top-three class in Conference USA. And they’re not done yet.

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Rice Baseball: MLB Owls riding high entering 2019 All-Star break

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Rice Baseball has five active players in the major leagues. Here’s how the current MLB Owls are doing at the 2019 All-Star break.

JT Chargois – Los Angeles Dodgers

Chargois made eight appearances before the All-Star break. He owns a 1-0 record through 8.2 innings pitched with 16 strikeouts and three walks. He struck out seven of the last batters he’s faced across two appearances in the month of July. Those terrific outings lowered his WHIP to a career-best 0.923.

Tyler Duffey – Minnesota Twins

Duffey was used sparingly through the first several weeks of the 2019 season before a May 11 doubleheader thrust him back amongst the bullpen regulars for the Minnesota Twins. Over the course of 25 games, Duffey sports a 3.49 ERA with 35 strikeouts over 28.1 innings. He’s walked only six batters. His 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings is a career best.

Available Now: 2019 Rice Football Season Preview 

Jon Duplantier – Arizona Diamondbacks

Duplantier made his MLB debut on April 1, earning the save in the Arizona Diamondbacks’ win over the San Diego Padres. His first career start came almost two months later on May 31 against the New York Mets. He went five innings, striking out four with two walks and three runs allowed, earning a no-decision. Following two more appearances, he was placed on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation. His line at the end of the first half of the season is a respectable 4.32 ERA in 25 innings with 24 strikeouts and nine walks.

Brock Holt – Boston Red Sox

A hamstring injury slowed Holt in the latter portion of June, but it couldn’t cool his red-hot start to the summer. Holt is hitting .317 entering the All-Star break, but a blazing .384 since June 1. He’s racked up 28 hits and just 15 strikeouts over that period, collecting 14 RBI in the process. He’s never hit better than .281 over the course of a season, the mark he reached in his first full year in Boston in 2014.

Anthony Rendon – Washington Nationals

Name an All-Star for the first time in his career, Rendon will not play in the Midsummer Classic, opting instead to rest up and nurse some minor injuries before the second half of the season begins. Even though he won’t get the chance to show off his skills in Cleveland, he’s more than proven himself worthy of the recognition.

Rendon is in his third consecutive season as a .300 hitter and is on pace for 160+ hits, 40+ doubles and 80+ RBI. Achieving those milestones would mark the fourth consecutive year he’d done so. This is a contract year for Rendon, making the timing of his steadfast productive all the more impactful.

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Rice Football: Best records across every conference

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Rice Football only plays a few games a year outside of Conference USA, but the Owls rich history stretches across almost every college football conference.

In 2005 Rice joined Conference USA. They left the WAC that year, a pitstop after spending decades in the Southwest Conference. During that time Rice has played dozens upon dozens of schools and amassed favorable records across several of the sport’s most notable names.

More than 100 years of football later, here are a few of the Owls more impressive series wins across nine different conferences and a few independent squads.

Power 5

  • ACC – North Carolina (1-0), Pittsburgh (2-1)
  • Big 12 – WVU (1-0), Kansas (2-1), Iowa State (3-2)
  • Big Ten – Northwestern (4-3)
  • Pac-12 – Arizona (4-0), Utah (3-1), Colorado (1-0)
  • SEC – Alabama (3-0), Auburn (2-0), Georgia (1-0), Florida (4-3-1)

Quick… how many active college football programs are undefeated in games against Alabama, Auburn and Georgia? Six of the Owls’ 82 wins against current SEC teams came over three of the truest blue-bloods in college football.

Rice has a rich rivalry with some of the premier academic institutions across the nation. They’ve played Duke and Stanford six times and Northwestern seven. The Owls and Wildcats are scheduled to meet again in 2029.

Group of 5 and Independent

  • AAC – Tulane (20-15-1)
  • CUSA– UTEP (14-8), Charlotte (2-0), FAU (2-1)
  • MAC – Western Michigan (1-0)
  • Mountain West – New Mexico (3-0), UNLV (2-0), Colorado State (1-0), Hawaii (5-3)
  • Independent – New Mexico State (1-0), Army (4-3)

Rice has a winning record over their first opponent of 2019, Army, but the Black Knights could even the series with a home win in August. Among Group of 5 teams, Rice and Tulane have some of the richest history. The series has had several starts and stops but always been close with Rice winning seven of the last 10.

Within the confines of the Owls’ current conference affiliations, Rice has controlled UTEP with the most regularity. The Miners got the upper hand in 2018, but Rice will look to avenge that defeat in El Paso this fall.

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Rice Football: Searching for reliable starters in 2019

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Finding a consistent starting lineup was nearly impossible for Rice football in 2018, something they’ll look to change next season.

Rice shuffled so many different players in and out of their weekly lineups last year. Many true freshmen were asked, not just to play, but to assume starting roles. The tumultuous fluctuations prevented any sort of consistency along the way.

18 true freshman stepped onto the field for Rice last season. 10 played in less than four games and retained a season of eligibility. The remaining eight averaged a little less than 11 games played each, with four true freshmen — linebacker Antonio Montero, safety Prudy Calderon, corner Treshawn Chamberlain and long snapper Campbell Riddle — playing in all 13 contests.

The rise of so many freshmen was proof positive of an underlying trend of inconsistency. 55 different players started games for Rice on offense or defense last season. Seven started all 13 games. Injuries and scheme make it unrealistic to expect the same 11 to go the duration on each side of the ball, but seven is startlingly low.

Here’s how the listed starters looked at each position last season:

Position Unique Starters True Freshman Starters Position Unique Starters True Freshman Starters
LT 3 2 DT 1 0
LG 2 1 NT 1 0
C 1 0 DE 2 0
RG 2 0 OLB 1 0
RT 1 0 ILB 2 1
WR 1 0 ILB 4 0
WR 4 0 OLB / S 3 1
WR 6 0 CB 4 1
TE 5 0 CB 2 0
RB 4 1 S 2 1
QB 3 1 S 1 0
Total 32 5 Total 23 4

The plethora of freshman who played meaningful roles last season are sophomores (or redshirt freshmen) now. In theory, it should be harder for so many true freshmen to contribute in similar ways in 2019 because of the experience of the group ahead of them.

Each side of the ball repeated a lineup just once. They’ll look to grow that consistency this season. Rice will likely start less true freshman in 2019, opening the door for less varied starting lineups and more consistent play from the team as a whole.

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