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Ranking the Conference USA Football Quarterbacks: July 2021 Patreon Q&A

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The quarterback landscape is going to be interesting for Conference USA football teams this season. Where does Luke McCaffrey fit in among the league’s signal callers?

If you haven’t checked out any of our Conference USA team previews on The Roost Podcast yet, go ahead and subscribe to the show and put those episodes in your listening queue over the next few weeks. I bring that up because a recurring theme as we work through the Owls’ upcoming opponents is the lack of certainty at the quarterback position across the conference.

Among returning quarterbacks, at least from a purely statistical evaluation, it’s essentially Marshall’s Grant Wells and that’s about it. The list gets murky quickly with players like UTEP’s Gavin Hardison and UTSA’s Frank Harris showing up frequently in the Top 5 of major statistical categories like completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdowns. That means, in all likelihood, the best quarterback that will play in Conference USA in 2021 wasn’t in the conference last season.

Which brings us to the question at hand? Who is the best quarterback in Conference USA and where does prospective Rice signal caller Luke McCaffrey fit into the mix?

Here’s my best projection of the conference quarterbacks, ranked from the best to worst:

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The Roost Podcast | Ep 84 – Conference USA Football with Phil Steele

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Creator of one of the most in-depth previews in college football, Phil Steele joins the show this week to dig into his 2021 Conference USA football outlook.

We were fortunate enough to cross paths this week with Phil Steele, create of the most jam-packed college football preview year after year. He was excited to step away debates about the Alabama’s and Texas’s of the world, turning his attention this week to the UAB’s and Texas San-Antonio’s of Conference USA.

Be sure to stick around for some Conference USA sleepers that Steele thinks could have big years, including a couple of picks from the Rice roster. You can always find previous episodes on the podcast page. For now, give a listen to Episode 84.

Episode Notes

  • Housekeeping
    • Don’t forget to rate, review and subscribe to the podcast on your platform of choice. Every little bit helps.
    • Please support us on Patreon. Be the first to get the inside scoop on what’s going on with Rice football and stick around for even further analysis. That includes our debriefing series on spring football, recruiting news and more.
      Become a Patron!
    • Pick up your copy of the Rice Football or Conference USA Season Preview today or as it’s been called by others, The Bible for Conference USA!
  • Phil Steele joins the show — Steele unpacks his Conference USA projections and dives deeper into the 2021 Rice Football season, including:
    • The impact Luke McCaffrey will have on Rice football
    • Where Rice fits in his Conference USA projections
    • The potential upside Rice football has in 2021
    • How the magazine comes together
    • Under-the-radar players to watch in Conference USA

Where can you find us?

Download and subscribe to The Roost Podcast on any of your favorite podcast providers. The show is available on iTunes, GooglePlay, Google Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, TuneIn and PodBean. Please consider leaving a review wherever you listen.

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Conference USA Football: Evaluating CBS’ 2021 coaching hot seat rankings

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In accordance with annual tradition, CBS Sports has updated its annual coaching hot seat rankings. Where do the Conference USA Football coaches fit in?

Before digging in much deeper, here are the hot seat rankings from CBS Sports for every Conference USA football head coach.

School Coach Years Record 21 Rating 20 Rating
UTEP Dana Dimel 3 5-27 4 5
MTSU Rick Stockstill 15 94-92 3 2
FIU Butch Davis 4 23-21 3 1
FAU Willie Taggart 1 5-4 2 2
LA Tech Skip Holtz 8 61-41 2 1
North Texas Seth Littrell 5 31-31 2 1
WKU Tyson Helton 2 14-11 2 1
Rice Mike Bloomgren 3 7-23 1 2
UTSA Jeff Traylor 1 7-5 1 2
Marshall Charles Huff — 0-0 1 1
Old Dominion Ricky Rahne 1 0-0 1 1
Southern Miss Will Hall — 0-0 1 1
Charlotte Will Healy 2 9-10 1 0
UAB Bill Clark 5 40-22 0 0

Hot Seats

Out of the 130 coaches on the total list, only nine coaches had rankings of four or higher. The lone C-USA coach to make that inauspicious list was Dana Dimel, who actually improved from “win or be fired” status last year to “start improving now” status in 2020. Four of the Miners’ first five games come against teams that didn’t play football last fall, giving him a decent shot (or a lack of an excuse) concerning improvement this coming season.

The only other coaches within the vicinity of the hot seat, according to CBS Sports, are MTSU’s Rick Stockstill and FIU’s Butch Davis and that seems about right. Both programs have arguably flatlined (at best) and things are starting to go stale. Finding a reason that 2022 will be different rather than more of the same is paramount, making the “pressure is mounting” tag for Level 3 fitting.

On the lookout

The bottom half of this list seems more or less untouchable. Bill Clark isn’t getting let go, regardless of how 2021 turns out. The remaining coaches on that half of the list have one (or fewer) years of head coaching experience. It’s the middle tier of Willie Taggart (FAU), Skip Holtz (Louisiana Tech), Seth Littrell (North Texas), Tyson Helton (WKU) and Mike Bloomgren (Rice) that has the potential to be interesting.

A bowl berth, or somewhere in that vicinity, probably keeps all of those coaches safely employed in 2021, but an unexpected down season would put them right up near the 4s or the 5s in 2021.

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Conference USA Football: Digging into the data on Havoc Rate

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Conference USA Football has fielded some impressive defensive performances in the past three seasons. Does havoc rate concur?

The best defenses create chaos and force the opposing offense off schedule. There are a myriad of stats that convey how well a defense is doing on that particular front, but havoc rate is a nice aggregate synopsis of those various pieces that go into a great defense. How have Conference USA football teams fared in that stat in recent years and does the data make sense? Let’s investigate.

SeasonTeamPlaysTFLINTPDFFHavocLast3RnkInSeasonRnkAvgLast3Games
2020UAB59760837718.76%5119
2020WKU82774662617.90%92612
2020UTSA8188511331417.48%1134.712
2020FIU36736218215.80%20485
2020Marshall635505321315.75%2156.310
2020FAU60158622815.64%24689
2020UTEP49947223615.63%25711.38
2020Rice30022613114.00%33810.35
2020MTSU66345825913.12%3699.39
2020So. Miss.69751626813.06%3710610
2020LA Tech69952925412.88%3811610
2020UNT75252724611.84%39129.310
2020Charlotte38420516411.72%401386
2019UAB8971067561820.85%21114
2019WKU835691150516.17%198613
2019UTSA790966341318.86%424.712
2019FIU898691250815.48%2610813
2019Marshall891651042814.03%32126.313
2019FAU9798822381416.55%156814
2019UTEP76539533510.72%411411.312
2019Rice7647063951571%22910.312
2019MTSU88863843813.74%34139.312
2019So. Miss.803871032416.56%145613
2019LA Tech9417917511216.90%123613
2019UNT8607443891453%29119.312
2019Charlotte82486936816.87%134813
2019ODU787769331216.52%167912
2018UAB87511194914.20.91%11114
2018WKU862651256816.36%188612
2018UTSA81578932915.71%2394.712
2018FIU887681743815.33%2710813
2018Marshall9139212591219.17%326.313
2018FAU863701138514.37%3012812
2018UTEP79760541814.30%311311.312
2018Rice84257840913.54%351410.313
2018MTSU9658916571017.82%1069.314
2018So. Miss.672721429918.45%63611
2018LA Tech88010113381018.41%74613
2018UNT915971849418.36%859.313
2018Charlotte700639311216.43%177812
2018ODU90665954614.79%2811912

Notes

  • Last3Rnk is the rank of that defense compared to all 41 defensive seasons from 2018 to 2020
  • InSeasonRnk is the rank of that defense in the conference that season
  • AvgLast3 is the rank of that team’s rank from the 2018 to 2020 season

UAB has been head and shoulders above the rest

First, it probably comes as no surprise that UAB has posted three of the top five defenses based on havoc rate in the last three seasons. The Blazers have had one of the best defenses in the conference over that time and the numbers back that up, ranking them first in the statistic in each of the past three seasons. No other team has multiple appearances in the Top 10, let alone the Top 5.

2020 was a relatively subdued defensive season

Less organization typically works in the offense’s favor. We saw that reflected in the numbers as well. The 2020 season marked the lowest conference-wide havoc rate over the last three seasons (14.89 percent, on average) compared to 15.96 percent in 2020, a drop of roughly seven percent. That said, UAB, WKU and UAB still racked up TFLs and finished highly in the statistic.

Fluky turnover luck helps

Turnovers are somewhat random, and those seem to influence the year to year rankings significantly. Conference USA defenses have averaged 9.2 interceptions and 8.3 forced fumbles over the past three years. However, only 15 of the 41 defensive seasons exceeded that 9.2 interception mark with only 17 of the 41 exceeding the 8.3 forced fumbles. In short, an outlier season on that front can push you up the ranks.

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Rice Football Recruiting: Early impressions from current 2022 commits

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The 2022 Rice Football recruiting class has five commitments as the summer winds down. We caught up with a few of them to hear about their early impressions.

The 2021 season is right around the corner and while the Owls begin their preparations on the field, they’re working hard to build the future of the program off of it. The 2022 Rice Football recruiting class has five commitments to date, putting them in the middle of the pack among their Conference USA peers.

To understand how the class was progressing and get to know some of its foundational pieces, we caught up with a few of the Owls’ initial members of the class.

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Anyone who begins a subscription on the Starting Lineup tier or higher for their first time in the month of July will get a copy of our 2021 Rice Football Season Preview absolutely free.

Take a test drive of our exclusive insights into media days and stick around for fall camp and more.

Become a Patron!

Sorry! This part of content is hidden behind this box because it requires a higher contribution level ($10) at Patreon. Why not take this chance to increase your contribution?
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