Rice football concludes regular season play on the road against South Florida. How to watch, key stats, x-factor picks and more.

The final week of the regular season is upon us. Rice football enters its finale following a home loss on Senior Day to North Texas, while South Florida returns home from a more successful road trip in Birmingham, where they took down UAB with relative ease. Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between Rice and South Florida.

Kickoff time | 6:00 PM
Venue | Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, FL
TV | ESPN+ (Viewing Guide)
Radio | Varsity Radio App (Online)

Sizing up the Contenders

With two conference losses, a trip to the American Championship game is wishful thinking for South Florida entering this final game. However, it still might be possible for an emphatic win and some chaos in the ranks ahead of them to make things interesting. Regardless, the Bulls have their eyes on a 10-win season and they won’t get there without beating Rice on Saturday.

More: Undersized and Undeterred – Quinton Jackson’s Journey to Rice Football Star

The Owls find themselves in a different place, seeking a sixth win to secure bowl eligibility in Scott Abell’s first season on campus. This team would happily take a postseason berth any way they could get it, even if it came as a 5-win team courtesy of an APR bump, but everyone would rest much easier if they could find a way to secure that postseason trip for certain with an upset over South Florida.

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Series History

All Time | Tied, 1-1
Last Five | Tied, 1-1
Last Meeting | Home 2024, Rice won 35-28

Rice Football Stat Notables

Passing | Jenkins – 113/163 (69.3 percent), 986 yards, 9TD, 2 INT
Rushing | Jackson – 162 carries, 808 yards (5.0 yards per carry), 6 TD / Jenkins – 140 carries, 497 yards (3.6 yards per carry) – 5 TD / Hardeman – 74 carries, 310 yards (4.2 yards per carry), 2 TD
Receiving | Dickmann – 36 receptions, 319 yards (8.9 yds/rec), 3 TD / Turner – 46 receptions, 275 yards (6.0 yds/rec)
Tackles | Awe – 87 / Morris – 73 / Williams – 66
Pass Breakups | Crump (Suspended) – 6 / Williams, Porter – 5
Interceptions | Kane, Stevenson, Wyatt – 1

South Florida Stat Notables

Passing | Brown – 210/317 (66.2 percent), 2883 yards, 24 TD, 7 INT
Rushing | Brown – 160 carries, 904 yards (5.7 yds/car), 13 TD / Davenport – 80 carries, 546 yards (6.8 yds/car), 6 TD / Franklin – 60 carries, 380 yards (6.3 yds/car), 4 TD
Receiving | Singleton – 44 receptions, 752 yards (17.1 yds/rec), 6 TD / Koger – 32 receptions, 504 yards (15.8 yds/rec), 6 TD / Reuben – 10 receptions, 405 yards (13.1 yds/rec), 4 TD
Tackles | Harris – 95 / Shuler – 88 / Ward – 60
Pass Breakups | Shuler – 7 / Duclona – 4 / Rucker, Chenault, Stokes – 3
Interceptions | Chenault, Harris, Lee, Gaskins – 2 / Six tied with one each

South Florida X-Factor | Death by a Million Cuts

Rice is a ball-control offense that wasn’t to dictate the terms of the game through possession and limiting opportunities for the other team. And while South Florida ranks dead last in the American Conference in time of possession per game, averaging less than 25 minutes per game, they have amassed an impressed 23.6 first downs per contest.

South Florida can strike fast. They can drive the length of the field. But what they’ve done so well this season is grind teams out so that by the time the second half arrives, defenses are tired and unable to mount a capable resistance. That’s been the breaking point for the Rice defense in recent weeks, able to stand tall in spots, but worn down by the constant battering an elite offense can provide.

To win this one, South Florida must maintain its consistency and move the ball effectively. If they can do that, the points will come.

Rice X-Factor | Force Some Turnovers

Only one team in FBS has forced fewer turnovers than Rice football. One. The Owls’ six takeaways represent barely more than half a turnover per game and that’s simply not going to cut it against a quality opponent like South Florida.

A turnover-free day requires a near-perfect offensive effort and further contributions from everywhere else. Rice pulled off the feat against UConn, but that’s not a sustainable way to live for a team that doesn’t have any truly dominant phase to hang its hat on. Rice needs to steal some possessions and get South Florida playing off script. Turnovers are the best way to accomplish that.

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One Final Thing

It’s hard to put into words just how significant a bowl berth would be for this program after the year they’ve had under their first-year head coach. Things have been bumpy. The roster has its flaws. And still, they’ve found ways to win.

Practically, the Abell hire isn’t any more or less successful if Rice makes a bowl game or not, but the optics of being ahead of schedule by such a noticeable margin would have tremendous dividends for the program, both on and off the field.

Beating a nine-win UConn team should go down as one of the more impressive wins Rice football has had in several years. But fair or not, a FBS independent not named Notre Dame doesn’t carry the same cache that knocking off a top-flight American Conference team would. To stack South Florida on top of UConn and Louisiana would be quite a feat for a program that’s supposed to be “rebuilding.”

On paper, Rice football probably has no business winning this game, but that’s sort of the exact reason Abell was hired and his offense was welcomed to South Main. This is supposed to become a program that wins games like this, games when the masses have counted them out. It sure would be nice to see that come to fruition just one more time this season.

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Rice football caps off its home slate with a Senior Day showdown against North Texas. How to watch, key stats, x-factor picks and more.

Both Rice football and North Texas enter this week’s matchup off victories. The Owls took down UAB at home before a much-needed bye week. Then they watched at home as the Mean Green dismantled those same Blazers the following weekend. Now the two Texas teams meet on the gridiron this Saturday. Here’s everything you need to know about the matchup between Rice and North Texas.

Kickoff time | 6:30 PM
Venue | Rice Stadium – Houston, TX
TV | ESPNU (Viewing Guide)
Radio | Varsity Radio App (Online)

Sizing up the Contenders

There’s a lot on the line for both teams in this one. Rice is a win away from clinching bowl eligibility in its first year under head coach Scott Abell. With a road trip looming against South Florida, it sure would be nice to secure that sixth win before heading out on the road.

More: Undersized and Undeterred – Quinton Jackson’s Journey to Rice Football Star

North Texas is aiming higher and remains in the mix for a spot in the conference championship game as one of three one-loss American Conference teams in the standings. A second loss could boot the Mean Green from the game entirely.

Get the Inside Scoop

Get access to practice reports, analysis and special features during the week when you subscribe to our Starting Lineup Tier on Patreon today. If you want updates on how Rice football plans to attack this week’s opponent, position battles, standouts, injuries and more, this is your go-to source. Don’t miss out! Join now!

Series History

All Time | North Texas leads, 8-5
Last Five | North Texas leads, 4-1
Last Meeting | Away 2022, North Texas won 21-17

Rice Football Stat Notables

Passing | Jenkins – 99/142 (69.7 percent), 885 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT
Rushing | Jackson – 148 carries, 758 yards (5.1 yards per carry), 6 TD / Jenkins – 124 carries, 422 yards (3.4 yards per carry) – 4 TD / Alexander – 74 carries, 392 yards (5.3 yards per carry), 3 TD
Receiving | Dickmann – 33 receptions, 302 yards (9.5 yds/rec), 3 TD / Turner – 38 receptions, 217 yards (5.7 yds/rec)
Tackles | Awe – 79 / Morris – 67 / Williams – 56
Pass Breakups | Crump (Suspended) – 6 / Williams, Porter – 5
Interceptions | Kane, Stevenson, Wyatt – 1

North Texas Stat Notables

Passing | Mestemaker – 232/335 (69.3 percent), 3000 yards, 23 TD, 4 INT
Rushing | Hawkins – 148 carries, 933 yards (6.3 yds/car), 16 TD / McGill II – 75 carries, 389 yards (5.2 yds/car), 5 TD
Receiving | Young – 48 receptions, 781 yards (16.3 yds/rec), 8 TD / Dorner – 38 receptions, 617 yards (16.2 yds/rec), 5 TD / Coleman – 33 receptions, 344 yards (10.4 yds/rec), 1 TD
Tackles | Fields – 74 / Wesloski – 71 / Whitter – 58
Pass Breakups | Fisher – 6 / Armstead – 4 / Allen Jr. – 3
Interceptions | Jones II, Hammonds, Lewis – 2 / Six tied with one each

North Texas X-Factor | Find the Weak Link

On a down to down basis, Rice football has been a solid defense, allowing 5.7 yards per play which ranks seventh in the conference. What the Owls haven’t done well is limit the big play. Rice ranks dead last in the league in scrimmage plays of 40+ yards or more allowed. A revolving door at corner has been one of the biggest culprits, thus far.

Starter Khary Crump was suspended indefinitely and backup Jerrick Harper has been limited, forcing second and third stringers to become everyday players for the Rice defense in the second half. North Texas has one of the most explosive offenses in the country and will scheme up looks against those newcomers in the Owls’ secondary. If they hit on those plays, Rice will be forced into comeback mode early.

Rice X-Factor | Ball Control

Neither of the other option-based teams North Texas faced this season won, but both Army and Navy showed the blueprint to beat North Texas. The Mean Green defense is rather susceptible on third down and the offense is extremely potent, making keep away the modus operendi for Rice Football in this game.

Both Army and Navy converted better than 50 percent of their third down conversions against North Texas but turned the ball over three times apiece. If the Owls can hang on to the football and limit possession, they can force this game to be close down the stretch. If that happens, the Owls will have a shot.

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One Final Thing

That Rice football has made it this far with the ebbs and flows of a first-year offense and the injuries that have plagued the defense, and particularly the secondary, all season is remarkable in itself. And as we mused in the most recent edition of The Roost Podcast, it’s hard to believe just how much hasn’t gone right and yet, they’re one win away from a bowl berth.

That’s not to say this season has been smoke and mirrors. To the contrary, it’s an incredible compliment to the staff and the roster for finding ways to win in spite of the adversity they’ve faced to this point. However, to beat North Texas, things are going to have to start going right.

If Rice can unleash the vintage, game-controlling offense they’ve been building, they’ll have a chance. If the defense can play at an elite level and force some turnovers, Rice might just be able to spring the upset. But if things don’t go well, this is the kind of game you lose by four scores.

A loss like that might not be devastating, given the circumstances, but it sure would be nice to see this team make magic happen. They did it once against a UConn team that hasn’t lost a game since. Can “lightning” strike twice? We’ll know for sure, soon enough.

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