Rice Football traded blows with a heavily favored Tulane squad at home before a series of back-breaking turnovers ruined the Owls’ upset bid.

Tied in the fourth quarter, Rice football still managed to lose by multiple scores to an unyielding Tulane team which took advantage of seemingly every mistake the Owls made. Those miscues were, unfortunately, far too many to overcome as Rice fell to 2-5 on the season and 1-3 in AAC play. Here are a few immediate reactions from the game, starting with those stated objectives:

Defense leads the way

In a perfect world, you’d build a super team. The offense would score 100 points a game. The defense wouldn’t allow any. Special teams would ensure a smooth transition back and forth. Voila.

But as any Rice football fan is well aware at this point, we don’t live in that perfect world. And since we don’t the Owls must wrestle with the reality of three phases of football all playing at different levels of competency and consistency. One thing has become abundantly clear is the defense is going to set the tone for the Owls moving forward.

Following a first-drive punt by the offense — which hasn’t scored on its first possession against an FBS opponent this season — the defense quickly engineered a three-and-out, nearly putting points on the board themselves on this crushing sack from Ty Morris on the goal line.

Here's the sack from Ty Morris. Inches away from a safety. Sure woulda been nice!pic.twitter.com/wuhGtX5lya

— The Roost (@AtTheRoost) October 19, 2024

The defense allowed a field goal on a short field following a Rice turnover, but held star Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah to zero passing yards in the first quarter. Mensah wasn’t going to be blanked for a full four quarters, but the redshirt freshman quarterback looked much more like a youngster than the poised distributor who had diced up AAC defenses thus far.

“That’s winning football, what our defense did,” head coach Mike Bloomgren summarized. “The only thing we can ask of our defense to better is create some turnovers. That’s something that we’re emphasizing, it’s something that we’re just not getting done right now and we have to, very simply, to be the team that we want to be. But if we can play with that kind of effort, defensively, we can win a bunch of football games.”

Tulane wideout Mario Williams dropped two surefire touchdown receptions in this game, but sometimes the ball does bounce your way. Two fourth-down stops prove this showing wasn’t a fluke. This defense is very good. If they can take that next step and become truly elite, the shortcomings in other phases can be overcome.

The Green Wave scored 10 points off turnovers. When forced to drive the length of the field, Tulane only mustered 14 points. That should always be good enough to win a college football game. It has to be.

Turnover gremlins can’t be silenced

Turnovers kill. Entering Saturday Rice football had turned the ball over eight times in six games, a rate that put them smack dab in the middle of the AAC, but it sure didn’t feel that way. That’s partly because the Owls’ four turnovers gained are second from last in league play and tied for 120th in the nation. Only one program in America has fewer turnovers against FBS opponents than Rice does: UAB.

Warner’s interception and a fumble by Dean Connors following a long run spoiled an otherwise effective first half. Those mistakes aren’t any more or less excusable by what is (or isn’t) happening on the other side of the ball, but they are felt more deeply when the margins are close like they were on Saturday.

Despite being down two giveaways on the stat sheet, Rice football was absolutely in this game at halftime, trailing 10-7. If the Owls had been neutral in the turnover department it’s hard not to project a tied game at the break, if not swinging things all the way over toward a Rice lead.

Warner’s second INT in the redzone was the most egregious offensive mistake of the afternoon. A veteran quarterback has to understand the situation better and not leave that opportunity without points. Likewise, the Owls’ star position player can’t put the ball on the ground twice. Connors’ second fumble was returned for a touchdown, officially ending any hopes on an upset bid.

Connors fumbled once in his first 220 career carries as a Rice Owl before fumbling twice today. Some of the turnover problems are systemic. Some are variance. The sum total today was overwhelming.

If this team could just get back to neutral in the turnover department, whether by way of fewer offensive mistakes or more defensive help, they’d have a puncher’s chance in most of their games moving forward. Being allergic to such game-changing plays doesn’t make sense, but it’s been a reality at the program for years.

“It’s hard to think you’re gonna win a game with a 5-0 turnover margin,” Bloomgren admitted. “It just doesn’t happen in this game.”

Warner imperfect, but improved

It’s hard to comprehend the degree to which the level of quarterback play Rice football has gotten from EJ Warner has improved over the last two months. His debut against Sam Houston and subsequent rough outings against Houston and Army had most onlookers wondering if this really was the same guy who had led the AAC in passing in each of the last two seasons. He just didn’t look comfortable whatsoever and the offensive production reflected that unease.

The Charlotte game was the first sign of growth. Then it got better against UTSA and was good again on the road against Tulane on Saturday afternoon. Warner had already thrown for more than 100 yards and a touchdown. He started this game 8-for-10 with his only real mistake an interception thrown into traffic.

The pick, along with some less-than-stellar accuracy on throws deep down the field — where most college quarterbacks struggle — provide evidence that there’s more growth needed for Warner and the Rice offense to reach their ceiling. But to have reached a point in the season where the flaws in this offense and in Warner’s game can be nitpicked is, to some degree, stunning.

Warner finished the game 26-for-46 for 271 yards one touchdown and three interceptions. He’s thrown for more than 250 yards in three consecutive games after failing to reach that mark once in his first four with the Owls, including against FCS Texas Southern. Some well-designed offensive playcalling from Marques Tuiasosopo like this jumbo-formation touchdown to Elijah Mojarrow deserve some credit, too:

This might be the most efficient offensive formation in football.

EJ hits Mojarro for the score and @ricefootball takes the lead!pic.twitter.com/m2fJC0WFUb

— The Roost (@AtTheRoost) October 19, 2024

“He’s seeing things well, He’s delivering the ball well and giving us a real chance,” Bloomgren said, declining to absolve his quarterback of all blame for the turnover-plagued day but noting, probably correctly that Warner “played a whale of a football game” outside of those mistakes, at least one of which Bloomgren attributed to protection issues at first glance.

Warner has grown a lot over the span of seven weeks. If he’s got even a bit more progress in him, he’ll take one more step and clean up those crushing interceptions, one of which came on a garbage time heave. This offense could be punchy in the second half of the season. Needless to say, that development would be massive and might hinge on Warner’s health following an injury suffered on the Owls’ final offensive play.

Where to go from here

Losing to Tulane on the road in a highly competitive game would typically make for a respectable, albeit disappointing, result. One needs to look no further than the complete dismantling UAB underwent against that same Green Wave squad a game prior.

But given the year Rice football has had and just how winnable this contest was makes it hard to argue for that silver lining.

There are no moral victories; this game marked the fifth loss of the season, and the calendar still has yet to reach Halloween. We’re now forced to play the schedule game with a Rice team attempting to tightrope to their third consecutive bowl appearance.

At 2-5, Rice has to beat either Navy or Memphis, who own a combined one loss between them at the time of this writing. If Rice can do that — and that’s a high bar to clear in itself — the Owls can get to the postseason through a perfect run through their other three games: at UConn, at UAB and home against South Florida for the regular season finale.

This team has shown flashes of high-level play over the past three weeks. They have the talent to win a few more games. Whether or not they can win enough is the question at hand. If they are going to make the run they absolutely must take care of business against UConn.

Being at this point in the season which began with such high expectations is crushing, but there’s no rewriting the past now. There’s still a chance. Please, please, please beat UConn.

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