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39 Days: Sustaining drives a key to finding offensive success

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Rice football has a decent amount of success on third down last season, but a tick up in those situations needs to be a focal point entering 2018.

Unless your offense consistently finds a way to take the top of the defense, converting on third down is a key piece of any offensive gameplan. Every coach will have a variety of plays and formations at his disposal for the sole purpose of gaining those three, seven or even 15 necessary yards and moving the chains. Offenses that can’t consistently convert on third down have to rely on chunk plays to avoid the down entirely.

Rice converted on 39 percent of their third down conversions last season. The Owls were just behind the national average of 40 percent conversions. While that’s a step up from their defensive stop rate on third down it still leaves room for improvement.

The teams that consistently turned third downs into first down predominantly were successful running the football, and not just when they had to. 10 of the top 16 third down offenses ranked inside the top 25 in rushing. Teams that run the ball frequently and with success often put themselves into a manageable down and distance. They also have the practice and the poise to get the two yards they need by handing the ball off to a trustworthy running back and letting him lower his shoulder and plow through the line.

Building up the offensive line has already been one of head coach Mike Bloomgren’s focal points. He signed four offensive lineman in the 2018 class. He’s already begun building his 2019 class around guard Regan Riddle and tight end Jack Bradley.

The ability to get the tough yards will define success. It will make the arrival of the physical brutality meant to coincide with newfound culture of the intellectual brutality which is already beginning to bleed into this program’s DNA. Whether it’s on the ground behind the revamped offensive line or through the air, converting on third down is a must.

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2018 Houston Cougars Season Preview

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Rice football has the opportunity to claim a landmark upset early on in their 2018 season. Can they make enough plays to overcome the more talented Houston Cougars?

Major Applewhite saw mixed results in his inaugural campaign as the head coach of the Houston Cougars. After having his first game canceled by weather concerns, Houston beat Arizona and Rice to open the 2017 season. Defeating Arizona was an important statement win for the program, even if it came before the electrifying Khalil Tate was inserted at quarterback.

Houston would go on to finish the season 7-5. They were on the wrong end of four one-score decisions, only falling by double-digits once, a 45-17 shellacking at the hands of Tulsa.

Their marquee win, over Arizona, was close; the Rice game was not. Houston trounced the Owls 38-3, scoring all of their points before halftime. Game No. 41 in series history went to the Cougars, who hold the lead in the series 30-11. Rice hasn’t defeated the Cougars since 2010 and enters 2018 carrying a four-game losing streak to their cross-town rival.

Offense

Kyle Postma and Kyle Allen each saw meaningful time as the starting quarterback for the Cougars last season. Both of those passers are gone, leaving D’Eriq King as the only experienced quarterback on the roster. King appeared in 10 games last season. After Postma and Allen had their struggles and injuries, King was named the starter for the final four contests.

A converted wide-receiver, King adds athleticism to a competent arm. He had a career-best 141 rushing yards against Tulane and topped out at 330 yards through the air in a win over East Carolina. As long as he’s under center, Houston is going to be dangerous on offense. It was King that led Houston over undefeated USF, who were contenders for the AAC title entering the final week of the regular season.

Complementing King out of the backfield is former Texas transfer Duke Catalon. He never saw the field with the Longhorns but didn’t miss a beat when he got to Houston. Catalon possesses a curious combination of speed and power plus soft hands. He’s already caught 59 passes in two seasons at Houston, and that’s in addition to his 1,165 yards on the ground over the past two seasons. The 6-foot, 215-pound grinder has the potential to be a work-horse back, should Applewhite choose to use him that way.

The biggest question mark for Houston entering the season is the wide receiver position. Gone are Steven Dunbar and Linell Bonner, their top two receivers from a year ago. Their No. 3 pass catcher was D’Eriq King, but he’s slated to be the full-time quarterback. That leaves a pair of sophomores, Courtney Clark and Keith Corbin, who combined for just 23 catches, 399 yards and two touchdowns last season

Defense

The offense is going to be productive, but the defensive unit will be the difference maker for Houston in 2018. The Cougars return an upperclassmen starter at every position. Returning starters is a relatively bogus statistic, but in this case, the combination of experience and talent are enough to suggest the Cougars will be even better on defense this season than they were a year ago when the finished second in the AAC in yards per play allowed and fourth in total defense.

The preeminent reason for that success is future 2019 NFL Draft first round pick Ed Oliver. The junior-to-be made waves earlier this offseason when he announced his declaration for the draft. It’s not uncommon for underclassmen to know they’re jumping to the next level before the season, but Oliver’s year-ahead proclamation is a first.

Unfortunately for the rest of the opponents on the Cougars’ schedule, Oliver intends to play out his final season. A true contender for the Heisman Trophy, at least as much as any defensive player can be expected to contend, Oliver is a game-changer on every snap. He’ll anchor a defense that allowed just 23.8 points per game.

Behind Oliver, Emeke Egbule and Joeal Williams should provide strong build blocks at the linebacker position. Both saw increased roles last season and are primed to be season-long starters in 2018.  Pass defense, their Achilles heel last season is the biggest question mark. Jeremey Winchester and Isiah Johnson were serviceable on the outside, but their best bet to improve is continued pressure up the middle from Oliver and Co. in the front.

Schedule

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Nahshon Ellerbe primed for increased workload in 2018

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The Rice football offense is going to look a bit different under Mike Bloomgren in 2018, starting with the emergence of one lead back. Could that be Nashon Ellerbe?

Mike Bloomgren is no stranger to the workhorse running back. During his time with Stanford he coached both Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love. Those are two generational backs, but his trend of relying on one man in the backfield started before even those two superstars. Remound Wright carried the load prior to McCaffrey, who eventually gave way to Love.

Here’s how Bloomgren’s No. 1 tailback fared during his four years as the offensive coordinator at Stanford:

Year Lead Back LB Carries LB Rushing TD % Total Carries % Total Rushing TD
2014 Remound Wright 135 11 29.2% 50.0%
2015 Christian McCaffrey 337 8 56.3% 24.2%
2016 Christian McCaffrey 253 13 49.3% 65.0%
2017 Bryce Love 263 19 57.0% 61.3%

Just once did Bloomgren’s lead back account for fewer than 40 percent of the total carries. The same was true when it came to touchdowns, which makes sense — more touches lead to more scoring opportunities. Last year’s No. 2 back, Cameron Scarlet, tallied 389 yards. No. 3? 142. In comparison, Rice’s third-best leading rusher ran for 308 yards, just a touch below Ellerbe’s 429.

Beyond putting his trust in one workhorse back, Bloomgren predominately employs a run-first offense. The Cardinal ran 60.4 percent of the time under his four years as the OC.

All of those pieces put together suggest Bloomgren will have to find someone on the current roster to take charge of the offense at Rice in 2018. Whereas there are a host of options at quarterback, the running back position should already have a clear-cut leader: Nahshon Ellerbe.

A redshirt junior, Ellerbe led the team in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns last season. His 85 carries represented a mere 17.7 percent of the team total, putting him in line for a massive uptick in work under Bloomgren in 2018. A workload closer to 180 carries would put him on track to reach the 1,000-yard mark, something that hasn’t happened at Rice since Charles Ross reached 1,280 yards in 2013.

Ellerbe is going to get the first shot at earning the workhorse role. If he’s slow out of the gate, players like Aston Walter, Collin Whitaker and Emmanuel Esukpa will all have a chance to throw their hat into the proverbial ring. However, by the time the Owls return home in October they should have one man poised to carry them the rest of the way.

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43 Days: Owls must play penalty-free football in 2018

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Rice football was a relatively penalty-free team in 2017, coming close to a school record in fewest infractions. Can they continue that disciplined play in 2018?

There are a handful of teams in college football that can play sloppy games and still win. Talent can outweigh discipline, and it often does. Rice football isn’t quite at that level, yet. If the Owls have a messy game, they’ll lose more often than not. Case in point: Rice’s lone win in 2017 came against UTEP, a game in which they committed just four penalties for 31 yards.

Rice committed 53 penalties in 2018, coming close to their fewest penalties ever committed in a single season. That mark, 43 penalties, was achieved three times – 1961, 1966 and 1968.

The Owls were more discipline in 2017 than year’s prior, but it wasn’t enough to pad turn close games into wins. A relatively clean 1-win season won’t turn into a 6-win season unless the Owls can keep the penalties down once again.

Rice football ranked 14th in the nation in penalties per game in 2017. Their 4.4 transgressions per contest was the second-best rate in Conference USA and the Owls cleanest season in a decade. However, that season might have been the outlier. And if it takes an outlier-type season to win one game it might take perfection on the penalty front to get the Owls where they want to go this season. It’s a good thing that’s not a linear relationship.

Head coach Mike Bloomgren saw similar results in his five seasons as the offensive coordinator at Stanford. While there the Cardinal hung near six infractions per game, more or less the same rate the Owls produced over the same time period.

Year Stanford Rice
2013 5.3 5.3
2014 5.8 5.9
2015 5.6 7
2016 6.5 5.8
2017 5.8 4.4

Bloomgren was only responsible for the offensive side of the ball at Stanford. Now he’s the captain of the whole ship at Rice. He’s got plenty of things to juggle as he enters a new season. It’s going to include a learning curve, but maintaining discipline on both sides of the ball should remain a priority for the Owls in 2018.

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44 Days: Chase Clement owns school-record 44 passing touchdown season

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Chase Clement owns the entirety of the Rice football passing record books including throwing a school-best 44 touchdown passes as a senior in 2008.

The Rice football passing record books are dominated by one name: Chase Clement. In a four year career spanning 2005 to 2008 he accomplished things at South Main that no soul has come anywhere close to equaling. His 44 touchdown passes in 2008 broke his own record of 29 touchdown passes in 2007. Driphus Jackson, sitting at third all-time, threw for 24 touchdowns in 2014.

It wasn’t just one or two productive seasons for Clement at Rice. He remains the only player in Owls history to top 6,200 passing yards. Clement threw for 9,785 yards in his career. He holds the school records for total touchdown passes (99), quarterback rushing touchdowns (25) and is third all-time with a 60.0 percent completion percentage (minimum 300 passes).

The numbers were impressive by themselves, but the awe is amplified when one considers the situation around him. As a freshman in 2005, he was a part of Ken Hatfield‘s last season at Rice, a 1-10 season. Hatfield gave way to Todd Graham who left Rice after one season for Tulsa. Clement was on his third coach in three years when David Bailiff took control of the program in 2007.

As the change intensified Clement got better and better. He improved in every significant passing metric every season of his collegiate career. As a freshman, he completed 42.7 percent of his passes for 582 yards, 4.7 yards per attempt and five touchdown passes. Three years late he completed 66.5 percent of his passes for 4,119 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt and the aforementioned 44 touchdown passes.

Mike Bloomgren’s offense doesn’t figure to be pass happy, but it’s worth noting his experience on staff at Stanford with Andrew Luck. He’s an offensive guy and has worked with one of the best college quarterbacks ever to play the game. That can only be a good thing for the Owls moving forward.

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