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Potseason Mailbag (12/1)

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The 2018 Rice Football season is in debrief mode, so we’re taking your questions about the team, the season and everything else.

Q: We had a lot of true freshmen get some playing time this year. How many of them could crack the starting lineup again next year? I’m thinking a player like Prudy Calderon is a lock. Who else?

Prudy Calderon is your starting strong safety next season, that’s a done deal. He’ll be one of several sophomores that retain a starting spot next season. On defense, linebacker Antonio Montero and linebacker Treshawn Chamberlain head into the offseason with a secure starting role.z

Linebacker Kebreyun Page and defensive end Cameron Valentine are both guys that didn’t see much of the field this year as true freshman because of injury. They’ll have a decent shot to land a starting job next season. They could find their way into the lineup a few games down the line, similar to the progression we saw with the freshman that forced their way into starting spots this season.

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There’s a lot more ambiguity on offense. The only lock entering the offseason is left guard Cole Garcia. He started the final six games of the season and has earned himself a spot on the line. Clay Servin and Jake Syptak both got starts during the year and should be in the mix for an open tackle position.

If they win the starting jobs, Wiley Green and Juma Otoviano could be the biggest difference makers on offense. It was pretty telling when Mike Bloomgren went to the pair of freshman in the final game of the regular season rather than starting healthy seniors Shawn Stankavage and Aston Walter. The passing of the torch was clear, but there will still be a legitimate competition at both positions this offseason, which I still expect Green and Otoviano to win.

Wide receiver is the position that’s most up in the air. Brendan Harmon and August Pitre would have seen more of the field if they’d been healthy. D’Angelo Ellis did well down the stretch, but the coaching staff still seems to think he’d be a better fit in the secondary. Either of those guys could fill his role next year.

Q: In this offense, I thought the TE’s were supposed to be more involved in the passing game. What was the reason for their absence and can we expect more in 2019?

First off, I don’t think we really truly saw what this offense is meant to look like this season. There were moments, but injuries and the understanding and implementation of the scheme limited what Bloomgren and offensive coordinator Jerry Mack were able to do this year. I’m not saying the team scraps the offensive results, but there’s still a lot of change to be done before this team is running the ball and controlling the clock like Bloomgren wants.

The tight ends were a little more involved than most might have noticed. Jordan Myers’ season-long production combined Jaeger Bull’s tallies up to 20 receptions for 267 yards and two touchdowns. That would have put the tight end group fourth on the team in receptions, yards and total touchdowns – trailing Austin Trammell, Aaron Cephus and Austin Walter. Given how significant those three players were to the team this season, the tight end production seems realistic.

As the offensive line and running game grows the tight end position should continue to become more involved in the offense. For year one, I’m not too concerned.

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Season Statpack – 10 telling numbers from 2018

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It’s impossible to boil an entire Rice football season into a handful of numbers, but these 10 paint a fairly comprehensive picture of the Owls’ 2018 campaign.

2 – Wins for the Owls

Following a 1-win 2017 campaign, Rice football showed tangible improvement this season, doubling their win total. It took them all 13 games to pick up their first conference win, but the Owls didn’t leave the season empty-handed. Progress has been made.

4 – Interceptions by Prudy Calderon

Prudy Calderon became one of the Owls’ starting safeties midway through the season then proceeded to pick off four passes in a stretch of five games. His four interceptions tied him for 13th most in the nation by any player. Having him manning centerfield for an entire season should be fun.

18 – Fourth down conversions

Rice’s willingness to roll the dice on fourth down was refreshing. Their 60 percent success rate continued to climb during the season and finished third best in CUSA. This offense is going to be aggressive, something that will be fun to watch and keep opponents constantly on their toes.

19 – True freshman that appeared in at least one game this season

The youth movement is alive and well at South Main. In addition to key starters like Cole Garcia, Prudy Calderon and Antonio Montero, a host of first-year players got on the field in 2018. 10 true freshman started for Rice over the course of the year.

1,580 – All Purpose yards for running back Austin Walter

Do it-all running back, receiver and return man Austin Walter was the glue that held this offense together during long stretches of the season. He finished 14th in the nation in all-purpose yards, flirting with the national lead early in the season. Walter averaged 8.1 yards per play this season.

28.7 Percent third down conversion rate

Becoming a more consistent offense on third down will be near the top of the priority list this season. For whatever the reason, Rice struggled to convert third downs at an alarming rate in 2018. Fourth downs weren’t an issue and but the quantity can be taken down a notch with a few more third down conversions next season.

31 – Punts inside the 20 by Jack Fox

Not only was Jack Fox one of the most consistent players for the Owls, he ranks among the best players at his position in the entire nation. A Ray Guy Award Finalist, Fox led the nation in punts inside the 20, flipping the field with regularity.

44 and 78 – Long scrimmage plays made by the Owls and against the Owls

The Rice offense was not explosive this season. They had their moments but finished near the bottom of the pack with 44 plays of 20+ yards. The lack of pop combined with a defense that finished last in CUSA with 78 plays of 20+ yards allowed put them on the short ends of both sticks.

32:40 – Average time of possession for Rice

Pound the rock, control the clock and play great defense is the new mantra on South Main. Rice finished 16th in average time of possession this season, limiting the opportunities opposing offenses had to do damage. This measure should prove more powerful as the offense progresses.

224 – Rushing yards by Juma Otoviano against Old Dominion

Fresh in minds of Rice fans because of its recency, the performance true freshman Juma Otoviano put on in the Owls’ season finale was superb. He had more rushing yards on his two touchdown runs (142) than he had during his career entering the game (140). He tied Chad Richardson for fifth-most in a single game in Rice history, was named CUSA offensive player of the week and got an ESPN helmet sticker.

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Mortal Kombat, finishing strong and final thoughts on the 2018 season

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Rice football struggled through a difficult 2018 season, finally breaking through and ending the year on an all-important high note.

In seven of Rice Football’s first 12 games season they found themselves in a two-score game entering the fourth quarter. Excluding blowouts by Southern Miss, Wake Forest, UAB, and LSU Rice was in the game in the fourth quarter more often than they weren’t.

Just once this year did they take a lead into the final frame; they led Old Dominion 20-13 entering the fourth quarter, set up by one of Juma Otoviano‘s long touchdown runs. That touchdown proved to be the difference. In the final week of the regular season Mike Bloomgren’s team had found a way finish.

Bloomgren’s relief and excitement were expressed with an allusion to a classic, but an unexpected source of entertainment: Mortal Kombat.

Upon seeing the game once again within reach in the fourth quarter, Bloomgren couldn’t help but envision the video game in his mind. “You know when his head’s spinning and it’s like ‘finish him'”, Bloomgren recalled with anticipation, “Today we finished him. And you have to do that. You have to have that desire, that want to. You have to believe when you put up those four fingers in the fourth quarter that’s the way it’s going to go. Hey, we’re going to end this thing, together.”

And they did. When the clock hit 0:00 Rice had their first conference win under Mike Bloomgren. It took months to find the right formula, but they got it done. Now all they have to do is replicate it going forward in a new season, with some new players and new expectations.

This could be the new normal,” Bloomgren said wistfully before doubling down on his team’s performance in their final game of the season.”It’s the future of Rice football. It’s intellectual brutality. It’s pound the rock, control the clock and play great defense. And it’s everything we talk about on display today by everyone who touched the field for us. And it’s exciting.”

The difference between one win and two wins doesn’t mean a whole lot for boxscore scouts. There is plenty of progress to be made on that front at South Main. When this coaching staff, this team and the fanbase looks back at 2018 they’ll see the two wins and wish there were more. There will be, in time.

In their final Saturday before the offseason began this team learned how to finish. That alone is reason to believe the best is yet to come.

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3 Big questions entering the offseason

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Rice football proved they’re on the right track, closing out the 2018 season with a win. What questions remain entering a long offseason for the Owls?

1. Can the coaching staff produce back to back stud recruiting classes?

Mike Bloomgren couldn’t stop raving about the freshman class during fall camp prior to the season. He said the hit rate on these guys was tremendous and he wasn’t wrong. Wiley Green, Juma Otoviano, Cole Garcia, Antonio Montero, Prudy Calderon, Tyrae Thornton and several others played significant roles for this team in their first years of college ball.

The trajectory of this program will be set by how well Bloomgren and his staff build on that first successful class. If they can find a few more gems in the 2019 group they’ll take the talent level at Rice through a step change. More talent creates more competition which leads to better players and better results. The recruiting formula starts with talent.

Don’t mistake the need for a second strong class with a search for stars. Just because a signee or recruit doesn’t have the best grades on 247 or Rivals doesn’t mean he’s not the right fit for this system and this scheme. Trust the process. Through one abbreviated cycle the staff has proven they can find the guys they need.

2. What will the offensive line look like in Year 2 under Mike Bloomgren?

It took the Rice offensive line much longer to gel than anyone on the staff would have hoped. The constant flurry of changing parts and shaky play prompted the insertion of young players down the line, eventually solidifying into a starting five of Uzoma Osuji, Cole Garcia, Shea Baker, Joseph Dill and Sam Pierce.

Pierce and Dill won’t return next year and Osuji will see competition at the left tackle position from freshman Clay Servin who started while Osuji was out with injury. That leaves Garcia and Baker as two relatively sure-things in another mix of players and combinations.

The inconsistency of the offensive line was a major inhibitor to the offense in 2018. The way this unit gels in the spring and continues to develop this fall will be an important barometer for how quickly the offense can continue to progress in Year 2.

3. Who will be the playmakers on offense in 2019?

Entering the 2018 season Emmanuel Esukpa and Aaron Cephus were tabbed by most as the most likely playmakers on the offense. Both had their moments and were instrumental in the development of the offense throughout the year, but by the end of the season, there were different faces carrying the load.

Wiley Green, Austin Walter, Austin Trammell and Juma Otoviano became fixtures and various points of the season, ending the year as go-to players to a much greater degree than even some of the coaching staff might have expected.

Who steps up in 2019? It could be some of those same leaders. Green and Otoviano will both be sophomore and Trammell will be back for his junior season, too. But there are also players like Brendan Harmon, August Pitre and D’Angelo Ellis who saw their roles severely limited by injury as well as incoming recruits like running back Jawan King and wide receiver Zane Knipe. There are a lot of options. It will be interesting to see who emerges to move this offense forward.

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Rice Football: Owls soar over Old Dominion for first CUSA win

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Rice football ended the 2018 season with an exclamation point, taking down Old Dominion on Senior Day for Mike Bloomgren’s first Conference USA win.

Rice scored two touchdowns in the first half. Old Dominion didn’t crack the endzone until the third quarter. Another stout defensive performance by the Owls parlayed with a few big-time plays from surprise starter Wiley Green sent the Owls into halftime with a 13-6 lead. They never looked back.

After falling behind 3-0 in the first quarter Rice rallied to outscore Old Dominion 20-7 over the remainder of the contest. On Senior Day with the weight of a potential second consecutive 1-win season overhead, Rice responded with their most complete performance of 2018.

1. Winner, winner

Rice started and ended the season with wins, the first time the Owls have bookended a year with victories since 2015. It was the Owls’ first conference win since they defeated UTEP on Sep. 9, 2017, their first home conference win since beating UTEP in 2016 and their first win over a CUSA East opponent since defeating Charlotte in 2016.

For Mike Bloomgren, the victory represents his second as a head coach and his first conference win with the Rice Owls. It was a long time coming, but the Owls can hold their heads high entering the offseason.

2. Let’s get big

There were more than a few naysayers when newly named head coach Mike Bloomgren advocated for Intellectual Brutality on South Main. The Owls were going to bring back the old days of power football in a sport dominated by the spread passing attack.

Early returns were frustrating. The offensive line took several games to gel, and it wasn’t until freshman Clay Servin and Cole Garcia won starting jobs that things began to slow down for the front five. It took a full season to work out the kinks, but the end result has been exactly what Bloomgren wanted in the trenches.

Rice lined up in the jumbo package in critical short yardage situations three times against LSU, converting all three attempts. They pulled out the stacked box again twice against Old Dominion and picked up two fourth down conversions on two tries. The Owls also scored their first touchdown of the day without a single receiver split out wide.

https://twitter.com/swcroundup/status/1066400713528483840

They’ve done it with power runs, play action and a variety of creative playcalling. But most importantly, they’ve stacked the box and made one yard an automatic conversion. If this offense can do that consistently, they’re going to burn the clock and start to take over football games.

3. Rice is going to miss Austin Walter, but they have weapons to fill the void

Saturday marked the final time do-it-all playmaker Austin Walter will wear a Rice uniform. The Owls’ leading rusher and 400+ yard receiver capped off his career with a tremendous senior season, ending it with an exclamation point against Old Dominion. Walter finished the game with three receptions for 24 yards and two carries for seven yards.

The hole left by Walter in this offense is massive and will have to be filled by a handful of different players next season. Through the air, the Owls will need someone to step up. Freshman receivers Brendan Harmon and August Pitre were kept off the field for the bulk of the 2018 season with injuries. Both of those players, and a new face or two are going to be asked to play a meaningful role on the offense next season.

On the ground, Austin’s brother Aston Walter plans to return for one more season, pending a petition to the NCAA. The man to watch, though, is freshman running back Juma Otoviano. The Owls’ wildcat quarterback this year, will undoubtedly be given a more prominent role.

Otoviano was given his first career start against Old Dominion. Entering the game with 140 yards rushing in his collegiate career, Otoviano exploded for a career-best 224 yards. His day was highlighted by two breakaway touchdowns — the longest an 80-yard scamper — the longest score for Rice this season. His second touchdown was “only” 62 yards.

4. Wiley Green is the future at the quarterback position

During practice this week Bloomgren hinted we might see a heavy dosage of freshman quarterback Wiley Green. In three appearances this season Green threw for 525 yards and three touchdowns with four interceptions and a touchdown on the ground.

The rationale for Green’s return to the bench was two-fold. First, Bloomgren refused to let his starting quarterback be Wally Pipped. He reinserted Shawn Stankavage back into the lineup as soon as he was healthy enough to play. Stankavage started twice, throwing for 216 yards and one touchdown with three interceptions against Louisiana Tech and 101 yards against LSU.

Second, the newly instituted redshirt rule allows players to play four games and still retain four years of eligibility. After sitting in the Owls’ past two contests Green will keep his redshirt.

All the maneuvering aside, Green doesn’t look to be relinquishing the starting job anytime soon. He threw for 96 yards with a rushing touchdown against Old Dominion before leaving the game with an injury midway through the third quarter. Green gives this offense a downfield threat with surprising mobility, opening up lanes for the Owls’ talented running backs. Green should be the presumptive favorite to be the starter heading into 2019.

5. The team that played ODU on Saturday should have won a few more games

Work in progress has been the tagline for the Rice football team through the 2018 season. Changing a culture and rebuilding from the ground up takes time, something not commonly afforded in today’s sports landscape. This team took several steps forward, a few more steps backward before finally arriving at the end of the road at 2-11.

To some extent there is truth in Bill Parcell’s most infamous one-liner: “You are what your record says you are.” The final line on the 2018 season says Rice is a 2-win football team. That’s a far cry from where this staff wants it to be, but it’s already twice as far as last year’s 1-win squad.

The truth buried in the wins and losses hides a lot of the growing pains it took for this squad to arrive where they’re at today. The team that beat Old Dominion on Saturday had the benefit of a full season of seasoning, experience and growth.

If Rice had the chance to replay this campaign with the knowledge and practice they’ve picked up along the way they probably pick up a few more wins, but that’s not how this game works. You get one shot, then it’s on to the next. Rice is better than their 2-win record and the building blocks are in place for significant improvement in their record going forward — something the Owls hope to bear out on the field in 2019 and beyond.

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