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This week in CUSA – Looking ahead at Week 3

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Rice football fell to Hawaii in Week 2 and enters their bye week 1-2. How did the rest of the conference fare and what’s next for the Conference USA football in Week 3?

Team Last Week Result This Week
Charlotte vs App State L, 45-9 at ODU
FAU vs Air Force W, 33-27 vs Bethune-Cookman
FIU at ODU W, 28-20 vs UMass
LaTech vs Southern W, 54-17 BYE
Marshall vs E Kentucky W, 32-16 at South Carolina
MTSU vs UT-Martin W, 61-37 at Georgia
North Texas vs Incarnate Word W, 58-16 at Arkansas
ODU vs FIU L, 28-20 at Charlotte
Rice at Hawaii L, 43-29 BYE
Southern Miss vs ULM L, 21-20 at App State
UAB at Coastal Carolina L, 47-24 vs Tulane
UTEP at UNLV L, 52-24 at Tennessee
UTSA vs Baylor L, 37-20 BYE
WKU vs Maine L, 31-28 vs Louisville

Notable Week 2 results

Rice — Positive returns in Owls’ second tough-luck loss

A 1-2 start was what most analysts projected entering the bye week, but Rice played Hawaii tougher than anyone else has yet and came close to pulling off the upset. The rebuild at South Main is ahead of schedule

Western Kentucky – Hilltoppers collapse at home

One would think that a 21-0 lead over a Maine team that completed less than 50 percent of their passes and converted 5-of-18 third downs would be enough to secure a victory. It wasn’t. The Hilltoppers blew what could have been the first when of the season and Mike Sanford is catching flak.

UTSA – Roadrunners can’t recreate Baylor upset

A year removed from a win over the Bears, the Roadrunners did not have an answer for the speed Baylor possessed on the outside. Jalen Hurd and Denzel Mims each tallied eight catches for 130+ yards and a touchdown.

Week 3 storylines

Bounce back opportunities

Western Kentucky draws a Louisville team that benched their starting quarterback Jawan pass midway through a win over Indiana State. The talent gap is still there, but no the quarterback drama gives WKU a chance.

Charlotte gets Old Dominion in Week 3, a much easier task than an App State team that came close to upsetting Penn State in Week 1. The 49ers are looking for their first Conference win since they defeated UAB in overtime on Oct. 21, 2017.

And then there were three

Only three unbeaten Conference USA teams remain entering Week 3: Louisiana Tech, Marshall and North Texas. The Mean Green have the best chance to stay perfect — they travel to play an Arkansas squad that found a way to squad a big lead against a hapless Colorado State team in Week 2.

Can FAU continue to settle in?

The Owls were crushed in Norman by the Oklahoma Sooners to start the season but bounced back with a win over Air Force last weekend. This team is expected to compete for the Conference USA title, but there are still a few kinks that need to be worked out.

One question that doesn’t need solving? Quarterback. Redshirt sophomore Chris Robinson, who passed for 471 yards against Air Force, should be in for another big day against Bethune-Cookman.

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Owls fall just short of big upset on the road vs Hawaii

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Rice football stood toe-to-toe with a high-powered Hawaii offense well into the twilight hours, dropping a close contest 43-29.

Rice was a 17-point road underdog to a red-hot Hawaii squad that entered the game as the only team in the country with a 2-0 record. The Owls didn’t back down from the challenge, wrestling with the Warriors until well past 2:00 a.m. local time at South Main.

When the clock hit zero, it was the favorite, not underdog that had won the day (night). But the path the game took to get to that result was unexpected, to say the least. Here are some immediate, sleepy thoughts from the close game in the Pacific.

1. Keep it simple

Everyone who’s listened to Bloomgren this season knows the Owls want to “pound the rock, control the clock and play great defense.” Controlling the clock has been the easiest objective so far, thanks in part to the tempo offenses of Houston and Hawaii. Rice finished with 32:55 of possession, which is more of a testament to their defensive success than a critique of the offensive effectiveness.

On the defensive front, Hawaii quarterback Cole McDonald struggled to move the ball consistently against the Rice defense. He leads the nation in all-purpose yards. His prowess both through the air (319 yards passing and four touchdowns) and on the ground (eight carries for 43 yards) was understood entering this matchup. That kind of playmaker is hard to silence, but Rice did the best they could to contain him.

Rice ran the ball fairly well (147 yards on 39 carries), but those opportunities were limited by the early deficit and the stout Hawaii offense.  In many ways, a strong rushing attack and a stingy defense complement each other. When the Owls are griding out the clock effectively they limit the opportunities for the opposing offense. In the same vein, lock-down defense props up the time of possession mark and allows the offense to operate in less pressure-intensive situations.

Falling behind early puts the entire process under stress. That was evident against Hawaii, who put the Owls’ focus on rushing and defense to the test early.

2. In Esupka we trust

It’s been no secret that Emmanuel Esupka is the go-to guy for the Owls on offense this season. He toted the rock 32 times against Prairie View, 17 times against Houston and another 17 times against Hawaii.

The biggest limiting factor for Esupka’s usage was the game script. An early deficit limited how often Esupka got the football with Austin Walter, the Owls’ primary pass-catching back seeing an increased workload once again.

When Espuka is churning out yards the Owls are right where they want to be. In the limited sample size, Rice has won every time Esupka tops 20 carries and 150 yards and lost when he’s held below those marks. For an offense that prides itself on grit and physicality, the ability to set the tone with Esupka up the middle is paramount.

Esupka ended the night with 104 yards and one touchdown. He was inches away from a second score on the goal-line and continues to be the bruising bellcow that this offense needs to keep it on schedule.

3. This defense is growing up before our eyes

During fall camp there was a constant back and forth between the offense and the defense. The two units dueled throughout August, alternating big days. Once the regular season started it was the offense that seemed to take center stage. On the ground against Prairie View and through the air against Houston, the Rice offense outplayed their counterparts on the other side of the ball.

The defense won the battle against Hawaii. The offense had their moments, but the defense clamped down from the midway point of the second quarter. After scoring 14 points in their first two drives, Hawaii scored 14 points on their next 9 drives. That includes a one play drive that resulted in a safety and two points for the defense.

Hawaii has playmakers on the outside, just like Houston did. Receiver John Ursua racked up 133 yards and a touchdown on nine catches. The defense wasn’t perfect, they surrendered a backbreaking 46 yard run to ice the game in the final minutes, but the difference between this performance and the second half of the Houston game could not be any more disparate.

4. Resiliency can’t be taught, but Rice has already mastered it

Even the best defensive plans can falter when put under the crucible of speed. Rice knew that’s what they would face against Hawaii, but that knowledge didn’t translate immediately to the field. Practicing for tempo can only do so much. It takes live game action to fully experience how that constant swirl of momentum impacts the game.

Houston took advantage of an untested defense last week, finishing all seven of their scoring drives in less than 2 minutes and 30 seconds. The Owls knew the Rainbow Warriors were going to push the tempo too, but again, took a while to get adjusted. Hawaii ripped off two touchdown drives that each took less than 4-minutes, pushing this team to the brink.

Give the Owls credit, though. Down 14-0 after allowing back-to-back touchdown drives, Rice could have packed it in and accepted a blowout at the hands of Hawaii. After seeing the Rainbow Warriors put up 40+ in each of their previous games, nobody would have faulted the Owls for letting Hawaii rack up touchdown after touchdown. Except for Rice.

Rice would have been frustrated with themselves if they gave up without a fight. That’s a testament to the culture of competition that coach Mike Bloomgren has instilled at Rice. So when other teams might have thrown in the towel, Rice fought back. They didn’t win, but the process continues to move forward.

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3 Keys to victory over Hawaii

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Rice football travels to Hawaii in Week 2 to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. What’s the recipe for success in the Owls first road contest of the year?

Don’t get beat deep

Rice has had some issues with its secondary early on in the year. No team in the nation has allowed more pass plays of 30+ yards than the Owls who have allowed seven such plays. Granted, Rice has played two games thus far while most squads have played just one, but it doesn’t advanced analytics to see something needs to get corrected on the back end.

How that looks schematically could vary. But if something doesn’t get tweaked the Hawaii offense could have a field day. Quarterback Cole McDonald is going to be looking deep — Rice needs to at least have a plan in place to minimize those chunk plays to give their defense a chance.

‘Suped up

Emmanuel Esupka enters the Owls’ Week 2 contest as the No. 2 rusher in the nation. After piling up 173 yards in the opener he was limited to 81 yards against Houston, but he did rip off a 52-yard scamper — the longest run of his career.

Rice leaned on Austin Walters, a more reliable pass-catching back, late in their comeback attempt against Houston. In a perfect world, Rice would never be in a position where they have to play catch-up. Instead, the Owls want to control the pace of the game, and they’ll look to do that by trusting Esupka with a heavy workload.

The Hawaii defense won’t pose much of a threat against Espuka. If the offensive line was able to open up holes against Ed Oliver, getting Esupka to the second level this weekend shouldn’t be too much of a chore.

Make two clutch plays

Either by way of special teams, a turnover or a redzone conversion, making the important plays count will be important for the Owls on Saturday. It’s impossible to play a perfect game, but Coach Mike Bloomgren’s message of consistency and focus have put this team in position to take advantage of those few game-changing moments.

Against Prairie View it was the fumble that led to the game-tying score. The Owls picked up another big fumble against Houston, but were unable to capitalize. Making those moments count, twice, should be enough for Rice to steal any momentum Hawaii has and turn it to a positive play for the Owls.

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3 Things to know about the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

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Rice football looks to get back in the win column in their first road trip of the season. Here are a few things to know about their opponent: Hawaii.

After a 1-1 start in front of the home crowd, Rice football will take to the skies on a long flight to the Pacific. This weekend they’ll play the 2-0 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors on their home turf. Here’s a quick scouting report on Hawaii.

1. Nick Rolovich knows a thing or two about high-powered passing attacks

The run and shoot offense instilled by June Jones at Hawaii almost two decades ago has returned under new head coach Nick Rolovich. Jones had several stat-stuffing quarterbacks during his tenure, one of which was Rolovich.

Despite only seeing one season of meaningful action at the helm of the Rainbow Warriors’ offense, Rolovich put up plenty of yardage through the air. His 3,361-yard senior campaign still ranks ninth most in school history, and he did it in only 10 games.

In his third season as the head coach at Hawaii, Rolovich has brought back the aerial attack. Hawaii has topped 400 passing yards in his first two seasons. They’re on pace to top 500 attempts and 5,000 yards in 2018.

2. Advanced metrics haven’t caught up to Hawaii’s hot start

There’s only one team in the country with a 2-0 record: Hawaii. The Rainbow Warriors posted back-to-back victories over Colorado State and Navy. The offensive explosion (102 total points) has been noteworthy, but this team isn’t ready for Alabama just yet.

Bill Connely’s S&P creates an aggregate ranking of all 130 FBS football teams based on a myriad of factors that go well beyond the first two games of the 2018 schedule. On those metrics, Hawaii ranks 119th in the nation, up 10 spots from where they started the year at 129th.

Rice checks in at 126th, a few spots behind Hawaii, but much closer than one might imagine from solely reading box scores. Hawaii is off to an impressive start, but they’re not perfect, particularly on defense

3. Points, points and (you guessed it) more points

Hawaii and Rice each hold the distinction of participating in 2018’s “Week 0”. After playing two games apiece entering Week 2 of the season, both squads have proven extremely productive within the redzone.

Hawaii and Rice have combined for 20 scores in 21 with the Rainbow Warriors a perfect 11-for-11. They’re averaging 51 points per game compared to Rice’s more modest 29 points per contest. No matter which way you slice it, the scoreboards at Aloha Stadium had best be ready when this game kicks off late Saturday night.

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Which offense shows up against Hawaii?

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Rice football has produced two very different offensive attacks in their first two games of the Mike Bloomgren era. What will the offense look like against Hawaii?

The first two games of the 2018 season have featured two similar, yet at times quite unique, offensive gameplans. After beginning the year with a run heavy scheme the Owls took to the air in a passing duel with Houston. Which of those two styles does the team employ against Hawaii? Could it be a little of both?

Game 1 – Run the ball

The ethos of the Mike Bloomgren era was communicated loud and clear during the Owls’ season-opening victory over Prairie View A&M. Rice ran the ball 50 times, averaging 6.2 yards per carry while attempting just 24 passes at a rate of 3.6 yards per attempt.

Emmanuel Esupka had a career day, rolling to 173 yards on 32 carries – both career highs. Austin Walter (11 carries, 83 yards and two touchdowns) and Aston Walter (who had a huge 26-yard third down conversion) played important roles in the ground game as well.

There was a lot of tight ends, fullbacks and power runs with a handful of obvious passing formations sprinkled in for good measure. By and large, this seemed to be a clear indication of what the Rice offense was going to look like going forward. Then the Houston game happened.

Game 2 – Air it out

The Houston game brought what looked like an entirely different offense to Rice Stadium. The time of possession battle still heavily favored the Owls, but that was more of a byproduct of the quickness of the Houston offense than how rapidly the Owls moved the ball.

Methodically and intentionally, Rice marched up and down the field, this time by way of the arms of Shawn Stankavage and Jackson Tyner. After failing to break 100 yards together against Prairie View, the Rice quarterbacks tallied 292 yards through the air and three touchdown passes against Houston. All three touchdowns marked the first career touchdown reception for a Rice pass-catcher: Jordan Myers, Jaeger Bull and Brendan Harmon.

Game 3  – ???

After running the ball 50 times against Prairie View and throwing the ball 41 times against Houston the outlook for the Hawaii game is somewhat uncertain. That favors the Owls to some extent; Hawaii will have two very different offenses to prepare for.

Coach Bloomgren’s desire to “pound the rock” is still melding with the passing game experience of offensive coordinator Jerry Mack. Whether or not the Owls will turn that into a homogenous offense this season remains to be seen, the same is true of Saturday’s tilt with Hawaii. Rice still carried the ball 43 times against Houston, so the real question is how often will the Rice quarterbacks be asked to throw it around the yard?

The Rainbow Warriors have been equally porous against the run and the pass this season, ranking 109th and 108th in the nation in each respective category. The deciding factor might favor a gameplan to aid the Owls’ own defensive struggles against the pass.

Houston quarterback D’Eriq King hit several long bombs against Rice and Hawaii quarterback Chase McDonald currently leads the nation through the air. Keeping him off the field with a strong running game and efficient clock management should be a focus on Saturday. But then again, Bloomgren’s kept everyone guessing so far.

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