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Rice Football rises in 2023 ESPN FPI, but competition is tougher

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The 2023 ESPN FPI projections are out. What do the projections look like for Rice Football and how much stock should we put in those estimations?

ESPN recently released its 2023 Football Power Index (FPI), a statistic geared toward predicting team performance. Rice football (-9.3 FPI) checked in No. 11 in the American Athletic Conference, ahead of Navy (-9.3), Temple (-9.4) and Charlotte (-10.9). On the upper end of the conference SMU (4.7), Tulane (2.4), Memphis (1.3) and UTSA (0.2) stand above the rest.

2023 ESPN FPI

  1. SMU, 4.7
  2. Tulane, 2.4
  3. Memphis, 1.3
  4. UTSA, 0.2
  5. ECU, -3.0
  6. UAB, -3.7
  7. FAU, -4.1
  8. UNT, -4.4
  9. Tulsa, -7.4
  10. USF, -8.4
  11. Rice, -9.3
  12. Navy, -9.3
  13. Temple, -9.4
  14. Charlotte, -10.9

Looking Closer

Even though they rank near the bottom of the AAC, the 2023 projections are still rosier for the Owls than they’ve been in some time. The 2021 FPI for Rice came in at -11.7. That dropped to -14.5 in 2022. Now up at -9.3, Rice is expected to be more potent than either of their more stingy teams of the Mike Bloomgren era.

Those same projections this year give Rice a 0.2 percent chance of winning the AAC Title in their inaugural season (not likely) and 30.9 percent chance of reaching six wins/bowl eligibility. To put that bowl projection in perspective, it’s roughly equivalent of what the numbers expected for Rice at this point last season. With the (presumed) better team comes the (presumed) tougher road.

Had the six new arriving AAC members still been scheduled to play in Conference USA this fall, Rice would have been the eighth team in that league.

All things considered, Rice is within seven points of the majority of their 2023 opponents. They’ll be near a coin flip in their conference opener against USF and still be expected to be competitive against ECU in their first AAC home game. The path is challenging, but it’s not impossible.

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Rice Baseball falters late, drops series to MTSU

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Rice Baseball and MTSU went down to the final inning with the fate of the series in the balance before an MTSU walk-off spoiled the Owls’ weekend.

FRIDAY | MTSU 6 – Rice 0

It didn’t matter which portion of the weather-split game it was for Rice baseball, the bats just weren’t syncing up. Rice was held scoreless in their series opener against Middle Tennessee, which was paused in the sixth inning with Rice trailing 3-0 before being restarted on Saturday afternoon.

Prior to the delay, Tyler Hamilton and Cristian Cienfuegos kept the Blue Raiders to one unearned run through four innings.  Blake Brogdon was tagged for two runs in the fifth, but the Owls were very much still in the game until MTSU tagged Ryland Urbanczyk with three runs in the eighth inning on Saturday to put the game away.

SATURDAY | Rice 9 – MTSU 2

Rice baseball and MTSU traded single runs in the early innings then did so again in the top of the sixth and bottom of the seventh. The game was neck-and-neck, even when Paul Smith singled in Jack Riedel in the top of the eighth to put the Owls in front. Leading 3-2 entering the ninth, the Rice bats exploded.

MORE: Roost Pod – Rice Football Spring Ball Recap and Basketball Recruiting

Three consecutive RBI hits put Rice up 7-2 and prompted an MTSU pitching change. The new reliever didn’t fair much better, getting charged with two additional runs on sacrifice flies as the Owls smacked the Blue Raiders around, scoring six in the ninth to win 9-2.

SUNDAY | MTSU 5 – Rice 4 (11 innings)

MTSU took a 2-0 lead on a first-inning home run against JD McCracken in the series finale, forcing Rice to play from behind. The Owls chipped away with a run in the fourth on an RBI single from Trey Duffield and another in the eighth, this time via a Ben Royo home run. Finally tied again, that’s when the drama would begin.

Both teams traded solo runs in the next two half innings, forcing extra with the score deadlocked at 3-3. Royo came through again in the tenth with an RBI single, but MTSU leveled the score on a wild pitch charged Rice reliever Krishna Raj. After Rice went quietly in the top half of the next inning, Raj gave up the walk-off long ball on the very next pitch, handing the game and the series to MTSU.

THREE FOR THE ROAD

Rice baseball had their chances to win a series for the first time in a month and couldn’t close the deal. Here are a few takeaways from a wet, frustrating weekend in Murfreesboro.

1. RIP RISP

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ON DECK | vs Dallas Baptist (Fri-Sun)

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Rice Basketball: 2023 Post-Season State of the Program

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The 2022-2023 Rice basketball saw the Owls’ win total rise but was far from perfect. Where does the program stand as it enters the offseason?

A strong start in conference play was not enough to secure a first-round bye in the conference tournament, but Rice basketball still managed to win a postseason game in the conference tournament and in the CBI Tournament en route to 19 wins, a program-high under the leadership of head coach Scott Pera.

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The Owls finished 19-16 (8-12) this season, a modest improvement from a 16-17 (7-11) campaign the season prior. With the final game in the books, where does the program stand as it moves forward?

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The Roost Podcast | Ep 142 – Rice Football Spring Practice and Basketball Recruiting

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Rice Football spring practices are in the books, but first we need to talk some basketball recruiting. It’s been a busy week for the offseason on both fronts.

It’s time to voice our final approvals and concerns following the conclusion of Rice football spring practices, including an initial review of the first outings of JT Daniels as the Owls’ QB1. But it’s not just football in the news right now. A string of recruiting success on the hardwood put Rice basketball into the spotlight in mid-April for a very good reason.

You can find previous episodes on the podcast page. For now, give a listen to Episode 142.

Episode Notes

Housekeeping

The Roost Podcast is now part of the Dave Campbell’s Republic of Football Podcast Network. You’ll still get the same content with the same hosts you’ve grown to love (or at least tolerate), but now with new partners.

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Rice Basketball Recruiting heats up

  • Rice has a higher rated recruiting class than … Texas
  • Three new additions from the transfer portal should inject plenty of talent
  • 2023-2024 roster looks really, really intriguing

Rice Football Spring Ball final thoughts 

  • JT Daniels as good as advertised
  • Dean Connors and Juma Otoviano show out
  • The new coaches are posting encouraging early returns
  • The offensive line is a work-in-progress, but there’s some reasons that’s the case
  • How worried should we be about the run defense?
  • Who is going to step up behind Gabe Taylor at safety and when will we find out?

Where can you find us?

The Roost Podcast is part of the Dave Campbell’s Republic of Football Podcast Network. You can find this podcast and all of our partner podcasts on Apple, Spotify and wherever you get your podcasts.

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Rice Football 2023 Spring Notebook 10: Defensive Takeaways

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The Rice Football defense once again had a productive spring. Here’s what we learned about that side of the ball.

Despite coming out of the wrong side according to the final score in the 2023 Rice Football Blue and Gray Game, the defense had a largely positive spring. They asserted their will in the prior two scrimmages and made plenty of noise along the way, but they have questions still to be answered as spring winds down. Here are 10 closing thoughts on the defense from the totality of the spring.

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1. Coaching matters

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