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College Football: Odds suggest a bumpy 2020 season

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The past few weeks have served as a stark reminder that no matter how many precautions are taken, no college football game can be guaranteed.

When this post goes live on Saturday morning, 16 college football games will have been postponed since the season began three weeks ago. At the conclusion of today, 49 games will have been completed as scheduled. Simple math says that’s a rate of roughly one in four scheduled contests never making it to the field.

Rice football’s crosstown rival Houston was the latest to experience that staggering statistic firsthand. The Cougars were meant to play Baylor today in one of the quickest scheduling maneuvers in recent college football memory. The game was organized and planned in a little less than a week’s time. Less than 24 hours before kickoff, that game had been squelched too.

Houston’s equipment truck was already at the stadium.

Houston head coach Dana Holgorsen couldn’t spell it out on social media, but his non-so-subtle collection of characters conveyed a frustration mounting among coaches, players and fans alike. For whatever reason, this game just wasn’t meant to be.

Back to the math.

If rapid testing helps limit the impacts of transmission and contact tracing, that 25% number will be too high. But if the impacts of positive cases begin to tick upward as the number of games increase, it could be too low. The best we can do for the time being is use the data we have now as a proxy for what is to come.

If this rate of cancelations continues, the chances of having a season that looked anything like the “best case scenario” is slim. Many conferences have built in some buffer room and flexibility, but that would fix multiple cancelations per school. Eventually, the calendar runs out.

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Given any 10-game schedule with a 25% cancelation rate, a team would have roughly a 5% chance of playing all 10 games. On average, every 10-game schedule would end up with two to three cancelations. That’s sobering.

Those that do play could find themselves in situations like Austin Peay: who played their first game of the year without any healthy long snappers and relied on quarterback pooch punts. Or Texas State, which swapped quarterbacks because from game one to game two because of precautions. It’s going to be weird.

Some teams will be more fortunate than others. The odds suggest somewhere around a half dozen of the teams playing this fall will complete their entire schedules as-is. Some others will be on the other end, losing large chunks of their seasons. It’s going to be strange, but that’s the reality of playing college football under these conditions.

Be grateful for the college football you do get to watch this year. From Campell vs Coastal Carolina on national TV to a marquee SEC matchup in October and everything in between. If your team is playing, cherish it. There’s no guarantee they’ll be playing next Saturday, no matter what the schedule says.

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College Football and COVID-19: Late August Roundup

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After an offseason riddled with cancelations and bad news, college football was played this week. Here’s a roundup of the key stories around the nation.

The offseason is finally (somewhat) over. There was college football played this week, but the status of the season is far from secure. If you want to look back at the up-and-down news cycle, you can check out the late-July edition of this update here, the early August edition here or the mid-August update here. Here’s the latest.

Central Arkansas beats Austin Peay

The opening game of the 2020 season was bizarre, perhaps fittingly. Austin Peay was without multiple starters because of COVID-19 protocols. Their top receiver did not make the trip. Neither did their longsnapper, which led to their quarterback attempting a half dozen pooch punts. With less than two minutes to play, Central Arkansas drove the length of the field,  scored, and put together one last defensive stand to secure the win.

Big 12, SEC and C-USA agree on testing protocols

Three of the five FBS conferences plaything this fall have agreed to test their athletes three times during game weeks. The first two tests of the week will be the PCR test. The third test, done Friday’s before a Saturday game, will be an antigen test with quicker results.

LSU temporarily loses offensive line to COVID-19 positives

According to The Advocate, “all but four LSU offensive lineman are in quarantine”. That’s a sobering note during the offseason, and one that could prove even more costly once the season begins. How would LSU play a game on Saturday with four healthy offensive linemen? Just one of the many concerns of playing college football in a pandemic.

Nebraska players sue Big Ten

Of the Big Ten’s member programs, Nebraska was one of the most outspoken critics of the conference’s decision to forgo a fall football seaosn. Now some of its players have taken that criticism one step further. This week a group of eight players filed a lawsuit against the Big Ten Conference seeking a reversal of that decision. The Big Ten was quickly dismissive, saying the lawsuit had “no merit.”

Troy postpones first game

Revised conference schedules were created with flexibility. Games were going to be impacted by the virus, building in the ability to push games back and reschedule was a must. Those changes are already happening. Troy delayed it’s Sept. 5 opener against ULM to Dec. 5 after ULM announced they would be unable to play because of positive tests among members of their football program.

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College Football: 2020 season schedule and first kickoff dates

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The 2020 college football season kicks off this weekend. Here’s the most up to date schedule after many previously scheduled games were postponed.

The carousel of college football schedules has gone round and round over the past several weeks. Who was playing who has seemed like a make-believe exercise at times, with games coming and going within days. Now things are getting real.

The first college football game of the season is scheduled to kick off this Saturday when Central Arkansas takes on Austin Peay at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. The first FBS matchup of the season is scheduled to follow five days later when Central Arkansas visits UAB for their second game of the season.

With real football mere days away instead of weeks, it’s time we familiarized ourselves with which teams are going to be playing in real games on television. As things stand, here’s what’s on the schedule over the course of the next week and a half. This includes all games featuring FBS and/or FCS teams.

*Conference USA teams in bold

Saturday, Aug. 29

  • Austin Peay vs. Central Arkansas – 8 p.m. CST, ESPN

Thursday, Sept. 3

  • Central Arkansas at UAB – 7 p.m CST, ESPN3
  • South Alabama at Southern Miss – 7 p.m. CST, CBSSN

Saturday, Sept. 5

  • Arkansas State at Memphis – 6 p.m. CST, ESPN
  • Eastern Kentucky at Marshall – 12 p.m. CST, ESPN
  • Houston Baptist at North Texas – 6:30 p.m. CST, ESPN3
  • Middle Tennessee at Army
  • SMU at Texas State –  3:30 pm. CST, ESPN
  • Stephen F. Austin at UTEP – 8 p.m. CST, ESPN3

Monday, Sept. 7

  • BYU at Navy – 7 p.m. CST, ESPN

Learn more about every C-USA team including players to watch, roster analysis and pressing questions in The Roost’s 2020 Conference USA Season Preview, available now for $5.

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College Football and COVID-19: Mid-August Roundup

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This week has brought plenty of updates as to the status of the upcoming college football season amid a pandemic. Here are a few highlights.

I can barely keep up with the fast-paced news cycles in college football. The end of July was hard to process. The first two weeks of August have been equally agonizing. If it feels like a lot is going on, that’s because it is.

For reference, you can check out the late-July edition here and the early August edition here. Here’s the latest.

Rice football delays its season

Rice football was the second Conference USA program to make a significant change in their upcoming schedule. After Old Dominion canceled its season, Rice opted to delay its season, postponing games against Houston and Army in early September, tentatively planning to start their season on September 26. The Owls are looking for opportunities to reschedule both of those canceled games.

Major cancelations

At the time of this publication, 54 FBS programs have canceled their 2020 fall seasons. Many hope to play in the spring, and Purdue’s Jeff Brohm has already put together a rather complete plan as to how to make that happen.

Here are the conferences/teams who won’t’ be playing this fall:

  • MAC
  • Big Ten
  • Pac-12
  • Mountain West
  • UConn
  • UMass
  • Old Dominion
  • New Mexico State

We now have more bowl spots available than teams planning to play in the fall.

FCS calls it mostly quits, but not quite

By the time Thursday afternoon had come and gone, the last of the FCS conferences had put an end to their league schedules. Several were allowing their teams to pursue non-conference games, ostensibly in search of the payday to help stave off the remaining costs associated with the forgone season. That left a dozen or so matchups between FBS and FCS teams on the schedule, including the revised Rice football season opener vs Lamar.

NCAA cancels fall championships

With members schools dropping left and right, it seemed like only a matter of time before this went official: the NCAA has canceled fall championships. The largest caveat, and its a big one, is FBS football. That’s the only fall sport that doesn’t fall under the NCAA Championship umbrella. For the time being, a College Football Playoff is still in the cards.

Last but not least … good news?

Progress on a cheaper COVID-19 test with results in the span of a few hours could be on the horizon. For as little as $10 per person, programs could test all personnel on a regular basis and get same-day results. Accurate and rapid testing isn’t the only problem facing college football right now, but solving this issue would be huge for the sports community.

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College Football: 2020 season cancellations continue

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The Big Ten and Pac-12 have canceled their 2020 football seasons, launching a tidal wave of change across the college football landscape that was already in flux.

First it was UConn. Then it was the MAC and the Mountain West. Now the Big Ten, one of the largest and most financially incentivized conferences in the nation has called it quits on college football in 2020, per Bruce Feldman. Hours later, the Pac-12 also shut its doors. An idea that seemed unthinkable a few months ago has become the new reality.

With the first Power 5 conference cancellations out in the open, others will likely follow suit. What happens in the south, from the Big 12 to the SEC and ACC, remains to be seen.

The cancellation of non-conference games against the Big Ten was part of the decision making that led to the MAC cancellations. The remainder of the Group of 5 conferences find their financial situation more closely mirrors the MAC than it does the Big Ten.

Here’s the running tally of programs not playing football this fall:

  • UConn
  • UMass
  • Old Dominion
  • Mid American Conference
  • Mountain West Conference
  • Big Ten
  • Pac-12

That’s 53 of the 130 FBS teams, more than 40% of all FBS programs.

What’s next for Conference USA and the Group of 5?

Several programs, including Rice football, opted not to return to scheduled fall camp practices this week even though the calendar permitted them to do so. Others, like Louisiana Tech, returned to practice only to suspend it because of positive COVID-19 test results.

Whether there are sports this fall or not, there’s going to be plenty to process as everyone works to find a new equilibrium in college sports. Stay current on those updates and following the always-active recruiting cycle by subscribing to The Roost on Patreon today.

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