Conference USA Football: Digging into the data on Havoc Rate

Conference USA Football has fielded some impressive defensive performances in the past three seasons. Does havoc rate concur?

The best defenses create chaos and force the opposing offense off schedule. There are a myriad of stats that convey how well a defense is doing on that particular front, but havoc rate is a nice aggregate synopsis of those various pieces that go into a great defense. How have Conference USA football teams fared in that stat in recent years and does the data make sense? Let’s investigate.

Season	Team	Plays	TFL	INT	PD	FF	Havoc	Last3Rnk	InSeasonRnk	AvgLast3	Games
2020	UAB	597	60	8	37	7	18.76%	5	1	1	9
2020	WKU	827	74	6	62	6	17.90%	9	2	6	12
2020	UTSA	818	85	11	33	14	17.48%	11	3	4.7	12
2020	FIU	367	36	2	18	2	15.80%	20	4	8	5
2020	Marshall	635	50	5	32	13	15.75%	21	5	6.3	10
2020	FAU	601	58	6	22	8	15.64%	24	6	8	9
2020	UTEP	499	47	2	23	6	15.63%	25	7	11.3	8
2020	Rice	300	22	6	13	1	14.00%	33	8	10.3	5
2020	MTSU	663	45	8	25	9	13.12%	36	9	9.3	9
2020	So. Miss.	697	51	6	26	8	13.06%	37	10	6	10
2020	LA Tech	699	52	9	25	4	12.88%	38	11	6	10
2020	UNT	752	52	7	24	6	11.84%	39	12	9.3	10
2020	Charlotte	384	20	5	16	4	11.72%	40	13	8	6
2019	UAB	897	106	7	56	18	20.85%	2	1	1	14
2019	WKU	835	69	11	50	5	16.17%	19	8	6	13
2019	UTSA	790	96	6	34	13	18.86%	4	2	4.7	12
2019	FIU	898	69	12	50	8	15.48%	26	10	8	13
2019	Marshall	891	65	10	42	8	14.03%	32	12	6.3	13
2019	FAU	979	88	22	38	14	16.55%	15	6	8	14
2019	UTEP	765	39	5	33	5	10.72%	41	14	11.3	12
2019	Rice	764	70	6	39	5	1571%	22	9	10.3	12
2019	MTSU	888	63	8	43	8	13.74%	34	13	9.3	12
2019	So. Miss.	803	87	10	32	4	16.56%	14	5	6	13
2019	LA Tech	941	79	17	51	12	16.90%	12	3	6	13
2019	UNT	860	74	4	38	9	1453%	29	11	9.3	12
2019	Charlotte	824	86	9	36	8	16.87%	13	4	8	13
2019	ODU	787	76	9	33	12	16.52%	16	7	9	12
2018	UAB	875	111	9	49	14	.20.91%	1	1	1	14
2018	WKU	862	65	12	56	8	16.36%	18	8	6	12
2018	UTSA	815	78	9	32	9	15.71%	23	9	4.7	12
2018	FIU	887	68	17	43	8	15.33%	27	10	8	13
2018	Marshall	913	92	12	59	12	19.17%	3	2	6.3	13
2018	FAU	863	70	11	38	5	14.37%	30	12	8	12
2018	UTEP	797	60	5	41	8	14.30%	31	13	11.3	12
2018	Rice	842	57	8	40	9	13.54%	35	14	10.3	13
2018	MTSU	965	89	16	57	10	17.82%	10	6	9.3	14
2018	So. Miss.	672	72	14	29	9	18.45%	6	3	6	11
2018	LA Tech	880	101	13	38	10	18.41%	7	4	6	13
2018	UNT	915	97	18	49	4	18.36%	8	5	9.3	13
2018	Charlotte	700	63	9	31	12	16.43%	17	7	8	12
2018	ODU	906	65	9	54	6	14.79%	28	11	9	12

Notes

Last3Rnk is the rank of that defense compared to all 41 defensive seasons from 2018 to 2020
InSeasonRnk is the rank of that defense in the conference that season
AvgLast3 is the rank of that team’s rank from the 2018 to 2020 season

UAB has been head and shoulders above the rest

First, it probably comes as no surprise that UAB has posted three of the top five defenses based on havoc rate in the last three seasons. The Blazers have had one of the best defenses in the conference over that time and the numbers back that up, ranking them first in the statistic in each of the past three seasons. No other team has multiple appearances in the Top 10, let alone the Top 5.

2020 was a relatively subdued defensive season

Less organization typically works in the offense’s favor. We saw that reflected in the numbers as well. The 2020 season marked the lowest conference-wide havoc rate over the last three seasons (14.89 percent, on average) compared to 15.96 percent in 2020, a drop of roughly seven percent. That said, UAB, WKU and UAB still racked up TFLs and finished highly in the statistic.

Fluky turnover luck helps

Turnovers are somewhat random, and those seem to influence the year to year rankings significantly. Conference USA defenses have averaged 9.2 interceptions and 8.3 forced fumbles over the past three years. However, only 15 of the 41 defensive seasons exceeded that 9.2 interception mark with only 17 of the 41 exceeding the 8.3 forced fumbles. In short, an outlier season on that front can push you up the ranks.