The game isn’t played on paper, but ESPN’s returning production metrics are high on Rice Football in 2024.
In his final formal media availability of the season following, Rice football head coach Mike Bloomgren interjected a ray of hope after a frustrating result, a bowl game loss to Texas State. “This is a really good football team coming back,” he said, projecting hope for 2024, and hopefully beyond.
Several months later, the numbers are in. According to ESPN’s returning production estimates, Rice football returns the highest percentage of their production out of any team in the AAC in 2024.
Bill Connelly, who compiles the metric for ESPN, estimates the Owls return 81 percent of their production from the 2023 team that won six games and made a second consecutive bowl game appearance.
That number dips a bit to 73 percent on offense but skyrockets to 89 percent on defense. In fact, no team in the nation projects to return more on defense than Rice. The Owls have lost De’Braylon Carroll and Tre’shon Devones from last year’s unit, but the rest of the defensive cupboard is fully stocked.
With a stacked defense and plenty of returning pieces on offense, Rice is positioned as well as it has been in quite some time to take another step. Rice and USF are the only AAC team in the top 20, nationally in returning production. The Owls’ biggest challenge will be replacing impact players on offense — JT Daniels, Luke McCaffrey and Clay Servin. If Rice can do that, 2024 has the makings of a special season on South Main.
One other interesting tidbit… Connelly notes this on Twitter:
Last year's top 4 were Kansas, Missouri, Florida St and Michigan. Went from a combined 35-18 to 48-7.
Last year's bottom 4 were Kent State, UAB, ECU and Stanford. Went from 23-27 to 10-38.
The middle's mostly negligible, but the extremes tend to matter.https://t.co/VTFbtHdgwy
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) May 13, 2024
Here are the full numbers:
UPDATED 2024 RETURNING PRODUCTION RANKINGS. Still some portal commits trickling in, but where do things stand in mid-May?
(NEXT WEEK: an SP+ update and … THE START OF THE 2024 PREVIEW SERIES!!) pic.twitter.com/7GhPRYwCjG
— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) May 13, 2024
